martes, 31 de julio de 2012

THAT HE GIVES VALUE TO THE EURO?



There are things difficult to understand and now there is one that is more mysterious than the miracle of the sacred Trinidad (for those not Catholic) "Father, Son and Sacred Spirit are the same thing". But I don't mean with this that those that we are suffering the tremendous consequences of the situation of galloping crisis and that we are all the civic poor, we should believe alone for faith that what happens is unavoidable, just the opposite, that is what you/they want to make us believe the politicians and world economists because they don't want to admit their failures. 

The first incomprehensible miracle is: how it can be that the foreign currency of the country numbers one (still with permission of China) of the world that already has growths positive  of between the 1.5 and 3% of the GDP, be lower than that of Europe that according to the markets and the own qualification companies all them American, this indebted one until the brows and whose growth quarterly is completely unbalanced and as much not more than 0.8%, and it is not worth me that they say that it is because the Dollar has interests of the 0,25. The euro is that is to say with 0,75% a rickety 0.50% more and its value is 22% more than the Dollar. 

Second miracle: as it can be that the Yuan not already sights of the second world power this lower than the euro, if not that practically it is nonnegotiable in the international markets which are the rules that govern today in day the valuation of the foreign currencies because if they have changed we should know it all.  

Lesson of basic economy for those not initiate, before continuing we will review the foundation of the foreign currencies regarding their use and valuation. In the prehistory, at the end of the Neolithic one it was marketed by means of the exchange of physical things, I had grain surplus and your have jars or hoes and we made an exchange so much grain for so many jars and hoes, I had to keep but I seed and to work the earth and your have eaten for you tribe, easy and comprehensible truth. 

Let us continue the history it was advancing and the humanity growing and already that of going changing things was weighed a little and annoying because it was necessary to load with the things and to also coincide with the other ones loaded until the ends they imagine it truth, so he appeared the use of the currencies that in principle in some cases were also things and it is even known that animals were used (pigs and sheep for example) until I derive in the type common of the currency coined as we know it now round and with stampings more or less very made in their plane faces, basically we locate ourselves in the Roman empire where silver currencies were coined it gets paid and gold whose value was the intrinsic value of its metal and size and weight. 

So already all speak of the same concepts: Currency, value, and relating. (That is to say the sacred Trinidad for that reasons the initial reference). Each town to its currency named her like he wanted that it didn't care, it coined it with the form and image that was him significant, but the value that was already sacred, he registered in its face and it was indexed in agreement with the grade and weight of the GOLD, SILVER, BRASS that they were recognized as the values pattern for everybody of the time.  

So the towns could make currencies more or less already outside depending on the gold, silver and/or brass that had, for own extraction or for accumulation of currencies of other towns obtained by trade I despoil and wars, clear and simple you could not deceive nobody or to have matter it prevails valuable or you were not nobody. 

On the half age you already invents the paper because it was no longer question of going loaded with kilos of gold or silver for the world and the banks and the letters of change were created (today they are still used) and they were precursors of the note or current money, these documents served so that a merchant gives her merchandise against a document that she told him that so-and-so of such, owed him so many currencies for value of (X) this was very practical because these documents could be made effective in any place that there are trade and "Banks", but the good and simple was that they continued being that is to say true they referred to value gold and the gold was same in Rome that in Damask, or in The India. 

The reference to the value gold, stayed of different forms and comparisons as they left positioning more an more countries and their notes that were denominated already also generically Foreign currencies, had different values already depending on many internal factors, although indexed to the gold, first they lost the condition that they were exchangeable for the value of the reference metal, and finally on the years thirty of the XX century you Already complicates all point that I derive to the creation of the market of foreign currencies as we know it today, that is to say that already nobody knows how it works. 

But what is certain it is that the world needs to give a value to the papers, calls foreign currencies of the countries, because it is the tool to trade and some factors of valuation have been created, in them they enter the wealth characteristic of the country (its GDP), their reservations of gold and other foreign currencies (monetary bottom) and mainly today in day a concept not so material, like it is the power of their armed forces able to discourage who tells him that its foreign currency is not worth what he says. And this it is the current situation.  

To have who has value to tell China what the Yuan is worth, and to the USA what is worth the Dollar, nobody makes what they want, but that it happens with Europe that all alive, he can tell us what is worth our foreign currency and he goes this way us, because I don't believe that Mrs. Merkel and the Mr. Draghi, be silly, and don't know that a conglomerate of nations that on the whole nobody doesn't govern them that some are in crash that others are wildly chosen democratically that all owe a numberless of Eurus, and that many have a negative GDP, they have enough guarantee to justify a foreign currency of 22% more expensive that of the first country of the world. It is absurd and untenable they say what these gentlemen and their BCE say. 

The worst thing of this is that this situation puts at stake the coexistence of the inhabitants from Europe because they are forcing to the town to pay its errors. Non gentlemen the debt is not mine, I don't owe anything to anybody, and as me many workers, merchants, managers etc. are you that not you the reason, they owe thousands of millions of Eurus and they insist every day in duty but, and they go up interests, and they sell its own debt every more expensive day, with what increases more, and to all that the world is silly, and he says that well that great nation Europe, I want to buy many Eurus, because they give me guarantee. We go man that one can no longer believe. 

It is necessary to be planted once and for all, and if he wants to stay the Euro, catch the machine they emit notes for the entirety of our debt, and devaluate the agreement euro with the quantity of new on currency in circulation, and starting from here we begin of zero, let us put the euro more or less between 1 and 0,90 dollars, the price of the money to 3% to avoid that a galloping inflation takes place that am sure would not happen because the speculation would end Europe it has more than enough once and for all, and to work it stops to unify Europe once and for all and I don't only refer to its political government, if not to its economic and mainly productive balance it cannot be that the north area and European center agglutinates all the industrial force of the area euro and while in the south the unemployment is on the average in 19% this an Europe of unofficial but real two speeds causes. 

¿QUE DA VALOR AL EURO?


Hay cosas difíciles de comprender y ahora hay una que es más misteriosa que el milagro de la santísima trinidad (para los no católicos) “Padre, Hijo y Espíritu Santo son la misma cosa”. Pero no quiero decir con esto, que los que estamos padeciendo las tremendas consecuencias de la situación de crisis galopante y que somos todos los pobres ciudadanos, debamos creer solo por fe, que lo que pasa es inevitable, todo lo contrario, eso es lo que nos quieren hacer creer los políticos y economistas mundiales porque no quieren admitir sus fracasos.

El primer milagro incomprensible es: cómo puede ser que la divisa del país numero uno (todavía con permiso de China) del mundo, que ya tiene crecimientos positivos trimestrales de entre el 1.5 y el 3% del PIB, esté más baja que la de Europa, que según los mercados y las propias empresas de calificación todas ellas estadounidenses, esta endeudada hasta las cejas y cuyo crecimiento trimestral es totalmente desequilibrado y como mucho no más del 0.8%, y no me vale que digan que es porque el Dólar tiene intereses del 0,25. El euro está con 0,75 % es decir un raquítico 0.50% más y su valor es un 31% más que el Dólar.

Segundo milagro: como puede ser que el Yuan divisa de la segunda potencia mundial este no ya más baja que el euro, si no que prácticamente sea innegociable en los mercados internacionales, cuales son las reglas que rigen hoy en día la valoración de las divisas porque si han cambiado deberíamos saberlo todos.

Lección de economía básica para los no iniciados, antes de seguir vamos a repasar el fundamento de las divisas respecto a su uso y valoración. En la prehistoria, A finales del Neolítico se comercializaba mediante el intercambio de cosas físicas, yo tenía excedente de grano y tu tenias jarras o azadas y hacíamos un trueque tanto grano por tantas jarras y azadas, yo tenía para guardar mas grano y para trabajar la tierra y tu tenias comida para tú tribu, fácil y comprensible verdad.

Continuemos la historia fue avanzando y la humanidad creciendo y ya eso de ir cambiando cosas era un poco pesado y engorroso porque había que cargar con las cosas y coincidir con los demás también cargados hasta los topes se lo imaginan verdad, así que apareció el uso de las monedas que en principio en algunos casos eran también cosas e incluso se conoce que se usaron animales (cerdos y ovejas por ejemplo) hasta que derivo en el tipo común de la moneda acuñada como la conocemos ahora redonda y con estampaciones más o menos bien hechas en sus caras planas, básicamente nos situamos en el imperio romano donde se acuñaban monedas de plata cobre y oro cuyo valor era el valor intrínseco de su metal y tamaño y peso.

Así que ya todos hablamos de los mismos conceptos: Moneda, valor, y referente. (Es decir la santísima trinidad por eso la referencia inicial). Cada pueblo a su moneda la nombraba como quería eso no importaba, la acuñaba con la forma e imagen que le fuese significativa, pero el valor eso ya era sagrado, se inscribía en su faz y se referenciaba en concordancia con el grado y peso del ORO, PLATA, BRONCE que eran reconocidos como los valores patrón para todo el mundo de la época.

Así que los pueblos podían hacer más o menos monedas dependiendo del oro, plata y/o bronce que tenían, ya fuera por extracción propia o por acumulación de monedas de otros pueblos obtenidas por comercio expolio y guerras. Claro y sencillo no podías engañar a nadie o tenias materia prima valiosa o no eras nadie.

Sobre la edad media se invento ya el papel porque ya no era cuestión de ir cargado con kilos de oro o plata por el mundo y se crearon los bancos y las letras de cambio (todavía hoy son usadas) y fueron precursoras del billete o dinero actual, estos documentos servían para que un comerciante entregase su mercancía contra un documento que le decía que fulano de tal, le debía tantas monedas por valor de (X) esto era muy práctico porque estos documentos se podían hacer efectivos en cualquier lugar que hubiese comercio y “Bancos”, pero lo bueno y sencillo era que seguían siendo verdad es decir se referían a valor oro y el oro era igual en Roma que en Damasco, o en La India.

La referencia al valor oro, se mantuvo de diferentes formas y comparaciones a medida que se iban posicionando mas y mas países y sus billetes que ya se denominaron también genéricamente Divisas, tenían diferentes valores dependiendo ya de muchos factores internos, aunque referenciados al oro , primero perdieron la condición de que eran canjeables por el valor del metal de referencia, y finalmente sobre los años treinta del siglo XX Ya se complico todo tanto, que derivo a la creación del mercado de divisas como lo conocemos hoy, es decir que ya nadie sabe cómo funciona.

Pero lo que es cierto es que el mundo necesita dar un valor a los papelitos, llamados divisas de los países, pues es la herramienta para comerciar y se han creado unos factores de valoración, en ellos entran la riqueza propia del país (su PIB) , sus reservas de oro y otras divisas (fondo monetario) y sobre todo hoy en día un concepto no tan material, como es la potencia de sus fuerzas armadas capaz de disuadir a quien le diga que su divisa no vale lo que él dice. Y esta es la situación actual.

Haber quien tiene valor de decirle a China lo que vale el Yuan, y a los EEUU lo que vale el Dólar, nadie hacen lo que quieren, pero que ocurre con Europa que todo vicho viviente, puede decirnos lo que vale nuestra divisa y así nos va, porque yo no creo que la Sra. Merkel y el Sr Draghi, sean tontos, y no sepan que un conglomerado de naciones que no las gobierna en conjunto nadie, que unas están en quiebra, que otras están sin gobierno elegido democráticamente, que todas deben un sinfín de euros, y que muchas tienen un PIB negativo, tienen garantía suficiente para justificar una divisa de un 22% más cara que la del primer país del mundo. Es absurdo e insostenible digan lo que digan estos señores y su BCE.

Lo peor de esto, es que esta situación pone en juego la convivencia de los habitantes de Europa porque están obligando al pueblo a pagar sus errores. No señores la deuda no es mía, yo no debo nada a nadie, y como yo muchísimos trabajadores, comerciantes, empresarios etc. Son ustedes que no se el porqué, deben miles de millones de euros y se empeñan cada día en deber mas, y suben intereses, y venden su propia deuda cada día más cara, con lo que aumenta más, y a todo eso el mundo es tonto, y dice que bien, que gran nación Europa, yo quiero comprar muchos euros, porque me dan garantía. Vamos hombre eso ya no se puede creer.

Hay que plantarse de una vez, y si se quiere mantener el Euro, cojan la maquinita emitan billetes por la totalidad de nuestra deuda, y devalúen el euro de acuerdo con la cantidad de nueva moneda puesta en circulación, y a partir de aquí empecemos de cero, pongamos el euro más o menos entre 1 y 0,90 dólares, el precio del dinero al 3% para evitar que se produzca una inflación galopante, que estoy seguro no sucedería porque se terminaría la especulación sobre Europa de una vez, y a trabajar para a unificar Europa de una vez y no me refiero únicamente a su gobierno político, si no a su equilibrio económico y sobre todo productivo no puede ser que la zona norte y centro europea aglutine toda la fuerza industrial de la zona euro y mientras en el sur el desempleo está en promedio en un 19% esto provoca una Europa de dos velocidades extraoficial pero real.

lunes, 30 de julio de 2012

TO REACTIVATE THE VERB THAT THE EURO AREA DOESN'T KNOW TO CONJUGATE


It seems that after the lifting of the European sovereign debt, all the analysts pass page to the problem giving it for well guided, and they notice the collateral ones that can end up being certainly more problematic and to cause second and third crisis in the European economy now. 

They will do at the moment with the solution of the debt, he/she is clarified the future mainly to the German and French banks that it is already well, for something you begins, but the undertaken economic resolutions don't solve that the PIGSI (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain and Italy.) they can balance their budgets, and recover their GDP, to obtain the appropriate differential that allows them to sustain and to reduce their debts. 

For that reason now I say that he will be necessary to think like it is reactivated the production and the revenues of these battered countries. I have written several times that a serious form creating a double euro that makes comparable among if the countries in question, this says it because the problem resides basically that it is sought to compare the PIGSI with the rest of the rich and potent Europe, and this doesn't square, no matter how much the differentials of the debts are softened, the markets didn't reduce the costs of the same ones, because they come that the capacity to pay them, for themselves, will be more and more difficult. 

It cannot stay bad him in spite of the BCE, a cost rhythm of the money at the same level for a rich one that for a poor person, unless the rich one runs with the difference that the poor person won't be able to pay, and I eat this you won't be this way (truth Mrs. Merkel), he is a constant and endemic crisis the one that we have installed in the European Union, because this doesn't get ready in another way that with the contribution of grants to the PIGSI on the part of the union, the same as one has to make with the new annexed countries (Poland, Rumania, etc.), or restructuring the industrial, agricultural and economic productive capacity, in the area euro so that the productivity of the PIGSI is supplemented with the purpose of increasing her GDP. 

Alone it is necessary to see the parameters macroeconomic Europeans to see what I am denouncing clearly  



Conce/pais
Portugal
Irlanda
Grecia
España
Italia
Déficit
-9,1
-32,4
-12,5
-9,2
-4,6
Deuda pub.
93,0
96,2
142,8
60,1
119,0
Crecimiento
1,4
-1,0
-4,5
-1,4
1,3
Paro%
13,0
13,6
21,5
25,1
11,5
Balanza ext.
-9,9
-0,7
-10,4
-4,5
-3,5



The problematic countries are it for reasons mathematics, independently of their best or worse government administration, one can see that Italy is the best in the bad because he has two parameters in positive in front of the other trip partners and on the contrary Greece is the worst and he has three parameters in which is the worst, it is curious to see that Portugal this better one on the whole that Spain, and that this he has one better than the other countries and the worst of all them in the unemployment. 

It is easy in view of this graph, to see for where it is necessary to attack, at the moment the European union has acted on one of the parameters the debt, and he has made it clearly where more lack toward, but it is clear that if not continuous solving the deficits, the GDP, the unemployment, and the scales of commercial, they will go falling one to one the other countries, because they already took charge the international markets of taking advantage of them, loading them of interests its capital demands that they don't take place internally.  

RECTIVAR EL VERBO QUE LA EURO ZONA NO SABE CONJUGAR


Parece que después del lifting de la deuda soberana europea, todos los analistas pasan página al problema dándolo por bien encaminado, y se fijan ahora en los colaterales que pueden llegar a ser ciertamente más problemáticos y causar segundas y terceras crisis en la economía europea.

Verán de momento con la solución de la deuda, se le aclara el futuro a los bancos alemanes y franceses principalmente que ya está bien, por algo se empieza, pero las resoluciones económicas emprendidas no solucionan que los PIGSI (Portugal, Irlanda, Grecia, Spain e Italia.) puedan equilibrar sus presupuestos, y recuperen su PIB, para obtener el diferencial adecuado que les permita sostener y rebajar sus deudas.

Por eso ahora digo yo, que habrá que pensar como se reactiva la producción y los ingresos de estos maltrechos países. He escrito varias veces que una forma seria creando un doble  euro, que hiciese comparables entre si los países en cuestión, esto lo digo porque el problema radica básicamente, que se pretende comparar los PIGSI con el resto de la Europa rica y potente, y esto no cuadra, por mucho que se suavicen los diferenciales de las  deudas, los mercados no rebajaran los costes de las mismas, porque ven que la capacidad de pagarlas, por ellos mismos, estará cada vez más difícil.

No se puede mantener mal le pese al BCE, un ritmo de coste del dinero al mismo nivel para un rico que para un pobre, salvo que el rico corra con la diferencia que el pobre no podrá pagar, y como esto no va a ser así (verdad Sra. Merkel), es una constante y endémica crisis la que tenemos instalada en la Unión Europea, porque esto no se arregla de otra forma que con la aportación de subvenciones a los PIGSI por parte de la unión, al igual que se tiene que hacer con los nuevos países anexionados (Polonia, Rumania, etc.), o reestructurando la capacidad productiva industrial, agrícola y económica, en la zona euro de forma que se complemente la productividad de los PIGSI con el fin de aumentar su PIB.

Solo hay que ver los parámetros macroeconómicos europeos para ver claramente lo que estoy denunciando



Conce/pais
Portugal
Irlanda
Grecia
España
Italia
Déficit
-9,1
-32,4
-12,5
-9,2
-4,6
Deuda pub.
93,0
96,2
142,8
60,1
119,0
Crecimiento
1,4
-1,0
-4,5
-1,4
1,3
Paro%
13,0
13,6
21,5
25,1
11,5
Balanza ext.
-9,9
-0,7
-10,4
-4,5
-3,5

Los países problemáticos lo son por razones matemáticas, independientemente de su mejor o peor gestión de gobierno, se puede ver que Italia es el mejor de los malos pues tiene dos parámetros en positivo frente a los otros compañeros de viaje y por el contrario Grecia es la peor y tiene tres parámetros en la que es la peor, es curioso ver que Portugal esta mejor en conjunto que España, y que esta tiene uno mejor que los otros países y el peor de todos ellos en el paro.

Es fácil a la vista de este grafico, ver por donde hay que atacar, de momento la unión europea ha actuado sobre uno de los parámetros la deuda, y lo ha hecho claramente donde más falta hacia, pero está claro que si no continua solucionando los déficits, los PIB, el paro, y las balanzas de comerciales, irán cayendo uno a uno los demás países, porque ya se encargaran los mercados internacionales de aprovecharse de ellos, cargándoles de intereses sus demandas de capital que ellos no producen internamente.

El ejemplo más palpable de lo que quiero decir es nuestra España, porque España tiene el coste de su deuda tan alto si tiene la deuda más baja (25 puntos por debajo de la media europea), pues está claro porque el mercado adivina que no puede producir capital para devolverla con el paro disparado,  la balanza comercial negativa, el déficit alto, y no tiene crecimiento que prevea solución alguna, estos son los problemas de nuestro país, y por eso hace días que reclamo elecciones, porque estos problemas necesitan tiempo para solucionarse y cuanto antes empecemos mejor,  y la situación política de hoy no ayuda para nada.

sábado, 28 de julio de 2012

THE UNEMPLOYMENT IS FED IN THE ENDS OF THE SOCIETY


The concern on the Spanish youth's unemployment not alone it is a factor that is given in this country, in many others of Europe the percentage of young 18/30 years it is above the stocking of unemployment of the europa of the euro, evidently not in the proportions of Spain, but enough alarming so that their reading in passing to a dangerous reality that should be corrected by the governments of the union. 

If the half index of unemployment in europa is of 10.2% it surprises that the juvenile index or rather of workers smaller than 30 years bends in many countries, and arrive until incredible figures in Spain where almost he quintuples, but let us review some unemployment indexes facilitated today in an article published in The Vanguard, Greece has 46.6%; Italy 31%; Portugal to 30.8%; Ireland 29%; France 23.8% and as last example United Kingdom 22%, the first thing that comes off is that the biggest young unemployment coincides with the economies more weak of the euro area, and it also happens in the very crazy economy of the United Kingdom. 

This verification what demonstrates is that what it lacks is industrial or labor activity for blame of the brutal recession of the national economies, the recession acts against the budgetary deficits and the sovereign debts from the states when decaying the consumption and the activity, they fall the sources of revenues for the public country properties, and with the same intensity, it attacks to the labor market that doesn't grow and in many cases it falls like it happens in Spain. 

When this happens the map of the unemployment he concentrates on two clear ends, those bigger than 50 years and those smaller than 30 years, this effect doesn't produce it the labor regulations in vigor, or the adults or smaller salaries, it is a question of quantity of workers that the labor market absorbs or he needs says it like want. 

As the labor market he decreases, the companies and the employers don't need to incorporate more personal, and in this state the insoles are stabilized in number, so it happens the following statistical effect, the thick of a work insole in a labor market in a normal stage, with growths of 2.5/3% GDP, it embraces workers of between 25 and 60 years, when this growth gets lost and he even withdraws, the labor insoles have to lose weight, and they lose weight for the tips there is not another way, the companies stop to hire future (young workers) and they come off of the expensive experience (bigger workers). 

There are not secrets, there is not any cause hidden in Spain or other countries that he makes that they are not hired young, it is simply that we are in recession, and even the hardest agents of personal, try to center the few forces that they have left to maintain the central area of their insoles, where they also concentrate the parents of families on construction, and the stocking of the wages, it is always thought that a bigger worker maybe can receive their children's help or of the state, and the youth still has to their parents and force or value to be looked for other roads. 

The things are but natural that that the politicians and unions want to make see to be made be worth themselves, but that they don't deceive us, what it is necessary to make the to reactivate the economy and to be stopped to get dizzy the partridge, with demagogic and incoherent measures, the circumstances are to analyze them with cause knowledge and with common sense, sew that apparently it misses the new politicians and economists completely that alone they play to publish and to prepare theories that as always alone they are good to explain because they are not good for anything. 

EL DESEMPLEO SE CEBA EN LOS EXTREMOS DE LA SOCIEDAD



La preocupación sobre el desempleo de la juventud española no solo es un factor que se da en este país, en muchos otros de Europa el porcentaje de jóvenes 18/30 años está por encima de la media de desempleo de la europa del euro, evidentemente no en las proporciones de España, pero lo suficiente alarmante para que su lectura de paso a una peligrosa realidad que debe de ser corregida por los gobiernos de la unión.

Si el índice medio de desempleo en europa es del 10.2% sorprende que el índice juvenil o mejor dicho de trabajadores menores de 30 años se doble en muchos países, y llegue hasta cifras increíbles en España donde casi se quintuplica, pero repasemos unos índices de desempleo cuantifican el paro juvenil en: Grecia 46.6%; Italia el 31%; Portugal al 30.8%; Irlanda el 29%; Francia el 23.8% y como último ejemplo Reino Unido el 22%, lo primero que se desprende es que el mayor desempleo joven coincide con las economías más desfavorecidas de la euro zona, y también ocurre en la economía muy tocada del Reino Unido.

Esta constatación lo que demuestra es que lo que falta es actividad industrial o laboral por culpa de la recesión brutal de las economías, la recesión actúa contra los déficits presupuestarios y las deudas soberanas de los estados, al decaer el consumo y la actividad, caen las fuentes de ingresos para las haciendas públicas, y con la misma intensidad, ataca al mercado laboral que no crece y en muchos casos decrece como ocurre en España.

Cuando esto sucede el mapa del desempleo se concentra en dos extremos claros, los mayores de 50 años y los menores de 30 años, este efecto no lo producen las regulaciones laborales en vigor, o los mayores o menores sueldos, es una cuestión de cantidad de trabajadores que el mercado laboral absorbe o necesita díganlo como quieran.

Como el mercado laboral se reduce, las empresas y los empleadores no necesitan incorporar más personal, y en este estado las plantillas se estabilizan en número, así que ocurre el siguiente efecto estadístico, el grueso de una plantilla de trabajo en un mercado laboral en una etapa normal, con crecimientos del 2.5/3% PIB, abarca trabajadores de entre 25 y 60 años, cuando este crecimiento se pierde e incluso se retrae, las plantillas laborales se tienen que adelgazar, y se adelgazan por las puntas no hay otra manera, las empresas dejan de contratar futuro (trabajadores jóvenes) y se desprenden de la cara experiencia (trabajadores mayores).

No hay secretos, no hay ninguna causa escondida en España u otros países que haga que no se contraten jóvenes, es simplemente que estamos en recesión, e incluso los más duros gestores de personal,  intentan centrar las pocas fuerzas que les quedan para mantener la zona central de sus plantillas, donde se concentran también los padres de familias en construcción, y la media de los salarios, siempre se piensa que un trabajador mayor puede quizás recibir ayuda de sus hijos o del estado, y el joven todavía tiene a sus padres y fuerza o valor para buscarse otros caminos.

Las cosas son mas naturales que lo que los políticos y sindicatos quieren hacer ver para hacerse valer ellos mismos, pero que no nos engañen, lo que hay que hacer el reactivar la economía y dejarse de marear la perdiz, con medidas demagógicas e incoherentes, las circunstancias hay que analizarlas con conocimiento de causa y con sentido común, cosa que al parecer les falta por completo a los nuevos políticos y economistas, que solo juegan a publicar y preparar teorías, que como siempre solo sirven para explicar el pasado o el presente pero que no se atreven a planificar el futuro.

viernes, 27 de julio de 2012

THE UNEMPLOYMENT IN SPAIN NON ALONE IS FOR THE CRISIS IT IS STRUCTURAL AND IT CAN BE SYSTEMIC


The situation of the unemployment of Spain is unnatural and you cannot continue hiding the situation, because of maintaining the theory that the politicians adduce, that it is the economic crisis it is the causing of the same one, he won't be able to never get ready. The economic crisis if he has an incidence in the sense that for their cause you the economic structure on that the growth too much of Spain was based collapses. To demonstrate my theory and that my readers see it graphically, I have made the graph that is shown next.  

In this graph one can observe that our half level of unemployment is in a fringe of between the 10 and 20 percent according to the data accumulated from 1980, so the thing that first it jumps visible, it is that these figures so outside of the European stocking are the normal ones in our country, this behavior line presents an inferior tip concretely to 10% 8% among the triennium 2004/2007 that it was really the triennium of gold of the Spanish economy.  

In this point another important variable converges to understand the current situation, if they look at the superior lines of the graph they will be reflected the demographic evolution in Spain in the same periods, in the graph this chapter is presented in two lines a green one that is the process we could call of natural growth, and another in red that is the consequence of an increase forced by the limitless growth and desire of wealth of the Spanish economy. At this time we show off of being 47 million Spaniards, when the logical thing had been to be 42 millions, the jump in demography happens in the first decade of this century and it is brutal, the two previous decades that is to say the 80 and the 90 you grew to rhythm of 1,8 million inhabitants per decade and in the decade 2000/2010 you grew in 5,9 millions, take out yourselves its conclusions.  

They already come it the situation of the Spanish unemployment, it is not only direct cause of the European stop economic, if it doesn't cause of the artificial imbalance of two concepts. A. - The terrible planning of the industrial development of Spain that I base their growth on the construction, and B. - The demographic imbalance that I cause, and that now no matter how much we want, we won't end up growing enough to absorb so much manpower as we have. If in these moments in Spain has a logical population of 42 million inhabitants, the unemployment would possibly be being about 17% it calculates that it would maintain us inside the Spanish structural" "normality.  

I say that of the normality, because the curve of the reflective Spanish unemployment with accuracy the historical moments, it ascends in the periods of the crisis of the 80, it lowers in the moment of the entrance in the European community 1986 and until the celebration of the Olympiads in Barcelona, passing the euphoria ascends another time until almost 19% in 1994 for the stop that suffered the Spanish economy after the games, and the projects of infrastructures carried out by Felipe González socialists, it begins again to get off the hand of the political change carried out by the PP of Aznar, although surprisingly the lowest tip happens to Zapatero socialist government that coincides with the Bum of the construction, and from this moment until today the total debacle, like they come almost everything he/she has explanation.  

EL DESEMPLEO EN ESPAÑA NO SOLO ES POR LA CRISIS ES ESTRUCTURAL Y PUEDE SER SISTEMICO


La situación del desempleo de España es antinatural y no se puede seguir ocultando la situación, porque de mantener la teoría que aducen los políticos, de que es la crisis económica es la causante del mismo, no se podrá arreglar jamás. La crisis económica si tiene una incidencia en el sentido de que por su causa se derrumbo la estructura económica en que se basaba el crecimiento desaforado de España. Para demostrar mi teoría y que mis lectores lo vean gráficamente, he confeccionado el grafico que se muestra a continuación.

En este grafico se puede observar que nuestro nivel medio de desempleo está en una franja de entre el 10 y el 20 por ciento según los datos acumulados desde 1980, así que la cosa que primero salta a la vista, es que estas cifras tan fuera de la media europea son los normales en nuestro país, esta línea de comportamiento presenta una punta inferior al 10% concretamente el 8% entre el trienio 2004/2007, que realmente fue el trienio de oro de la economía española.

En este punto confluye otra variable importante para entender la situación actual, si miran las líneas superiores del grafico verán reflejada la evolución demográfica en España en los mismos periodos, en la grafica se presenta este capítulo en dos líneas una verde que es el proceso podríamos llamar de crecimiento natural, y otra en rojo que es la consecuencia de un aumento forzado por el desmedido crecimiento y afán de riqueza de la economía española. En este momento presumimos de ser 47 millones de españoles, cuando lo lógico hubiera sido ser 42 millones, el salto en demografía sucede en la primera década de este siglo y es brutal, las dos décadas anteriores es decir los 80 y los 90 se creció a ritmo de 1,8 millones de habitantes por década y en la década 2000/2010 se creció en 5,9 millones, saquen ustedes mismos sus conclusiones.

Ya lo ven la situación del desempleo español, no es únicamente causa directa del parón económico europeo, si no causa del desequilibrio artificial de dos conceptos. A.- La pésima planificación del desarrollo industrial de España, que baso su crecimiento en la construcción desaforada, y B.- El desequilibrio demográfico que causo, y que ahora por mucho que queramos, no llegaremos a crecer lo suficiente para absorber tanta mano de obra como tenemos. Si en estos momentos en España hubiese una población lógica de 42 millones de habitantes, el desempleo posiblemente estaría rondando el 17% cifra que nos mantendría dentro de la “normalidad estructural” española.

Digo lo de la normalidad, porque la curva del desempleo español refleja con exactitud los momentos históricos, sube en los periodos de la crisis de los 80, baja en el momento de la entrada en la comunidad europea 1986 y hasta la celebración de las olimpiadas en Barcelona, pasada la euforia sube otra vez hasta casi el 19% en 1994 por el parón que sufrió la economía española tras los juegos, y los proyectos de infraestructuras llevados a cabo por los socialistas de Felipe González, empieza de nuevo a bajar de la mano del cambio político llevado a cabo por el PP de Aznar , aunque curiosamente la punta más baja sucede con el gobierno socialista de Zapatero que coincide con el Bum de la construcción, y desde este momento hasta hoy la debacle total, como ven casi todo tiene explicación.

THE FISCAL PACT BETWEEN CATALONIA AND SPAIN IS A LOSS OF TIME


The governments members of Convergence and United (CiU), party Catalan nationalist that presides the Generalitad of Catalonia, this noticing to Spanish Government, that to deny Catalonia the fiscal pact supposes for this community to "condemn her to the misery". Montoro minister of the Spanish government's property recriminates it in the Spanish senate and he exclaims that “to claim a fiscal pact to a Spanish fiscal country property that doesn't have a euro is an atrocity”. He doesn't realize that it is in fact for that reason that Catalonia wants and he needs to separate a country property that like its holder recognizes he doesn't have an euro.   

In fact, the recovery of the fiscal pact doesn't consist so much on requesting more money for Catalonia, but in changing the financing pattern to put limit to the Catalan fiscal deficit. The general secretary of Convergence has manifested that Catalonia, besides the "misery" generated by the current economic crisis, it should add "between 8% and 9% of fiscal" deficit, some resources that leave and they don't return" to the arks of the Generalitat, for what is "indispensable to speak of a new fiscal" pact. The "offense" that the Catalan suffers in the financing topic, is already "untenable and unbearable." 

You look at gentlemen of CIU and members of the "Govern of the Generalitad" it is already well off to threaten and not to hit, they are being and making us be as silly, or what is worse as children not well servants that alone we know how to cry to dad, so that he gives us a candy of but, they already give me you shame and it rages with this attitude, when they will understand that Catalonia is not Spain, because Spain doesn't want that Catalonia will be Catalonia and if Spain, so much finds difficult them to see this reality.    

Spain doesn't go he is necessary to make absolutely anything for Catalonia, rather just the opposite, its idea of Spain impedes it to him moral and sentimentally. You should take the initiative once and for all, we will never have more it to favor, because today in day that that less it is necessary to Spain it is an accusation of perfectly basted and quantified in solidarity, presented at the same time in the tribunals of justice of Spain (the Constitutional one) and European, I am totally convinced that the Spanish constitution doesn't say in any article that you can swindle an autonomy more than other for a supposition common benefit.   

Plant you once and for all, doesn't come that the current government from Spain their own Spain cannot already govern, he doesn't have force internationally some, it cannot take out its own economy ahead that you wait, they don't come that the Mr. Rajoy is right, he is defending its truth with all its reason, I insist they are you those that allow to take the hair, are you that they don't know how to react and to say are already enough, or it is that they don't understand it, and if this it is the case is please quiet because they give other people's shame.    

We are in Catalonia losing all our value like industrial motor of Spain, we are with the society gotten worked up with Catalonia by the cuttings that we are forced to suffer, because it is as well as they come it the societies that they live and they work in Catalonia, it is that it is curious, if you were like they should be and is devoted to speak with common people, they would realize that most of the society non Catalan that is in our community, feels and he thinks that the cuttings are for our blame, that is to say of the Catalan government. And with their timid and incoherent attitude they agree with them unintentionally, because what come is a pusillanimous government that is unable to defend their reason, if it is that it is such a reason.    

You cannot continue this way, you have to force to that the things are different, or otherwise they will be separate for the parties of Spanish national look and basically for the PP in hands of the one that are already, and the most amusing thing is that like they want to show off of political independence, I repeat them they are loading on their backs and the one of many of us, all the cuttings and reductions of the state of the good to be that the tyranny and the Spanish government's interest forces them to make.   

I have not still listened of mouth of any minister by no means of Rajoy a single support word before the sacrifices that here are already making from the 2011, he gives the impression very well looked for by the way that the cuttings invent them to us because if for that the tripartite one mashes us the economy, not because Spain imposes them to us, and now that its own one "tripartite" (PESOE) he has left them the worst whole country that ours, now they follow us demanding more an more sacrifices so that BANKIAS can maintain and you are, subsidies and debts, by all Spain. 

Find out once and for all they are winning them the departure, they are put with TV3, with the representation offices abroad, with our language, with our economic sacrifices, with our sanity, with our difficulties to sustain the education, they whisk away us the investments in infrastructures, they don't pay us their own debts, and above inside our own country much people continue believing that we are some in solidarity’s that we sew to cuttings. And they don't doubt it, as much PSC as PPC are laughing at you, because to stay to the margin has against what you believe an immense electoral benefit for their interests.    

The Generalitat should already give beginning to the measures to take to make in front of this Spanish national "offensive", measures some that have already allowed seeing as the presentation of unconstitutionality resources against certain decisions of the Executive central etc. If they persist and they maintain this tactics of threatening without acting, I sit down it but it doesn't rot them to me to believe, both me and the Catalan society, and what is worse neither took us seriously the Spanish society and they will have the whole reason.