WE ARE IN THE CALM THAT PRECEDES TO THE "EURO-TEMPEST" THAT IS OBSERVED IN THE PROXIMITY

In these last months in fact from this month of April mainly, he seems to fall on the euro area a tense calm, but it is a false image that to me to understand alone it will last until the German elections, arrivals to their end, the economic panorama of the europa of the euro reveals that the restructuring of the main debt, so much stops Cyprus as for Greece, not alone he won't have been lowered if not that he will probably force to both countries to leave the unique currency, not alone it is my opinion, we "Continue assuming that Greece and Cyprus will leave the European Monetary Union (UEM) with the time", Citi Bank has said. 

In fact, from the bank they estimate that the area of the euro will remain "in recession this year and in 2014 - with deep recessions in most of the countries of the periphery - ", they pointed in a published report last week. Spain and Italy won't be immune, according to Citi, due to the vicious circle that continuous shrinking the readiness of bank credit, the economic weakness and the increase of the unemployment in all the outlying countries. 

Finally the euro area will take a drastic solution, and this naturally will happen a new legislature immediately it is summed up in Germany, event that will allow to outline one taking of decisions and in advance enough to undertake the definitive solution, this it will go by two key circumstances, a the one of maintaining the euro area without Greece and Cyprus, but if with Italy and Spain, consumption markets of those that it cannot do without the German economy that is without a doubt the economy of the euro area. 

So that these two countries can be consume and they can continue in the euro area they will be rescued, this is already a fact, máxime when today it is spoken that Spain drags a deficit of 10,6% of the year 2012 and when Italy neither he has government neither he will have it, although they are reached political agreements impossible to maintain, with what there won't be form of thinking about to return a debt of more than 130% of its GDP, 

Today they have also jumped in holders that Merkel announces that the countries of the euro area, they will give sovereignty if they want to leave the hairspring of the crisis, with these "inputs", the outline this drawn of leftovers, the euro zone is forced to assume the sovereign debt of Spain and Italy, and he doesn't want neither the Greek by no means that of Cyprus, because the reality that is finally contemplated is that these two "pseudo" countries don't contribute any benefit neither present neither future. But if it is evident that you cannot do without of 108 million consumers and cheap manpower that Spain and Italy contribute, if he/she wants to stay the euro. 

Of a form or another Italy and Spain possibly will enter in some agreement type with the ESM (European Mechanism of Stability) this year. The restructuring of the government's debt and / or passive of the banks it continues being probable among the group of countries that includes Portugal, for their dependence of Spain, and Ireland. Possibly this agreement anger in the address that definitively the euro area assumes the creation of the Eurobonds, these countries were financed this way to low costs and inside of possibly of the strongest economies inside the euro zone this way the debt of these countries stopped des controlled to be and it will allow to organize them from Brussels or Frankfort, this is to see. 

It is evident that for this solution it is necessary the total concession of sovereignty mainly of the mentioned countries that but that rescued we can say they will be absorbed, I finish that he adapts but to the reality, the economies of Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland, they will be absorbed by the other ones, and it is evident that this one won't be able to make if there is not as compensation the financial and economic fiscal politics's surrender of all them to Brussels. 

There is not I believe another possible exit, if this is not I don't have this way the smallest doubt that these countries will abandon the euro, or as minimum the euro zone, because this but that sung that if Merkel wins the reelection in Germany its posture it will be more inflexible than up to now, and it is evident that the economic and social destruction that they are already installed in the mentioned countries that as ours, we are in some figures impossible to maintain, and worse still, of recovering for us alone and our bankrupt economies.