Today that the day accompanies, for the
difficult thing that this general situation, I will play a very rough topic and
of difficult position they will see I don't see any other solution to refloat
Spain that to apply an ERE (File of Regulation of Employment) mandatory. Accompany
to the measures cutting, and privatization of the services and public
companies.
The reason of this position will try first to
explain to it with an example that many will understand it, because they will
even have suffered it in themselves. Imagine as a company anyone, given the
incidence of the current crisis, their capacity of sales makes that its
revenues decrease visibly, this company like all have a credit line with the
banks that he needs it to adjust the treasury flows and their investments. With
the slope of sales and for consequence of revenues you do with alarm that he
won't be able to balance the balance of losses and earnings and he begins to
study to reduce their expenses and costs so that they are balanced the most
possible thing to their revenues. The company took several solutions:
1º. - To reduce expenses that are not necessary,
the most immediate and easy of applying, representation expenses travel
etc.
2º. - To reduce costs, here he meets with more
difficulties because he has to define that costs suppress or it reduces. And in
this point two qualifications variable costs and fixed costs appear. The
variables are those that go bound to the production and they vary as he takes
place more or less, an example the matters cousins that he needs for their
production, in this field the administration will consist on looking for of to
reduce prices with the suppliers or to substitute them for others. And we
arrive to the fixed costs they are those that it manufactures more or less they
are there and they don't vary Rents, paying-offs, interests of credits and the
dramatic one the labor personnel.
Arrived to this point the company he doesn't
have another exit that to reduce the expense in personal, because he doesn't
need their production so much since it has shrunk a lot, and for that reason an
ERE, the objective of the one begins which is to reduce the insole of the
company. To part of the discussions and negotiations at the end a figure is
gotten and he decreases the insole in an appropriate number. And the surpluses
leave and they leave the company free of the part of costs that they supposed.
Among the whole company it is balanced and continuous their survival.
Now imagine you that this company after making
the ERE its surpluses of workers has to stay in a corner of the same company
and to continue getting paid, that yes without to work that will make, if there
is not neither components, neither necessity some of its contribution to the
production, would be absurd and of course it would put an end to the company in
the ruin.
Very since this it is the situation of Spain, he
is asked that it reduces costs, of all type and he attempts it, but the deficit
doesn't lower and it didn't lower, because Spain has not made an ERE and this
is killing her hopelessly, in our country there is according to the last
estimate 4.8 millions of stopped, if we count an average of 800 cost Eurus we
are I relent from 3.800 million to month 46.000 million Eurus a year. Almost
4,5% of our GDP. This without counting, because I doubt that neither the own
state knows it, the incidence of other indirect costs that its administration
causes that would not miss me that they bent the figures, among courses,
grants, officials, etc.
Where I want go to stop then very simple this
whole position seeks to demonstrate that the final resolution that I will
outline, doesn't have any racist reason neither of extreme right neither
nationalism neither anything of that, is pure economy, Spain he should
understand that never more it absorbs again more than half of this figure of
stopped, because unfortunately they are forever fruit of a false and finite
planning of growth.
Spain should calculate that cost represents him
to maintain this situation so much in its pure monetary aspect as of political
incidence and of country solvency, and to make an ERE that means the relocation
of at least 2.5 million workers and its direct clerks, that is to say I
calculate as a lot about 7 million people, this operation is the only
alternative so that Spain you re equilibrium, because what doesn't seem
probable is that Europe and the western economy changes, neither that the
German industry displeases factories to Spain so that re install the surpluses
of unemployed.
If I am right, and we give for good that during
next 5 years the unemployment won't change, the non absorbable unemployment
that is to say the 2.5 millions of but that are those that produce the
difference among an unemployment from 9% to the current of 20% we are playing
ourselves 120.000 million Eurus, supposing that among half we are not armed a
social revolution, and that they don't increase us the costs thing that I
doubt. That way would mean that the state could invest about 15,000 Eurus for
person (unemployed and family), to finance the relocation of people affected by
the change of productive situation of our country, that yes he understands each
other that outside of Spain, like in its day they had to leave its company and
before its origin country in many cases I believe that for many to redo its
life in its origin place with between 30 and 45 thousand Eurus in the hand is
not by no means a foolishness.
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