jueves, 14 de febrero de 2013

THE ECONOMY OF THE EURO SHOULD RECOVER BEFORE OF DREAMING IN A FREE MARKET (EEUU/UE)


 
With some luck and desires maybe will be able to say that the European economic crisis will have stopped in this 2013, but not overcome that is otherwise what he/she will be necessary to make as quickly as possible, the deflation or the stagflation of the economy we will install in next 5 years in the euro area, and in Spain during about 15 years I calculate. This inequality is not an impression or a personal pessimism, by no means is it the time that Spain needed to build an industrial fabric that of two indispensable conditions for the country one is the very important economic and other obtaining of resources the employment creation.   

My plan so that this is not so and so long, he has two slopes, the politics and the economic one, it is clear that one without the other one doesn't work well, the problem is in how to conjugate them because the politics is in hands of the Governments, the politicians, and a numberless of legal organs, such as Congresses or Senates or both in many cases, this makes it slow in its reactions and maxi me, when this problem that of the legal and democratic bureaucracy multiplies it for twenty-seven.    

However, the economy doesn't have anything of democratic, it is quick in reactions, he is not due to anybody it is absolutely free, too much would say me, and in many cases it skirts the illegality. That is to say politics and economy are in fact and at the same time complementary and totally antagonistic, and however there is not more remedy than to make them cohabit more or less in harmony.    

It is necessary to endow to the politics of much more dynamism and of hardness in their taking and application of decisions. For there is it to really insist in the European unit, it is necessary to give from the nations that compose it all better more national sovereignty, it is necessary to order the laws and the European constitution, so that it is from superior range to the laws and constitutions of the nations that form the Union.    

For example a law or community norm either of political or economic range, it should be approved unanimously I don't eat up to now, but for simple majority or qualified according to the range of the law in question, and to be reflected obligatorily if he doesn't have space in the national constitutions changing these without delay neither discussion some, they won't be able to this way the nations to retain or to lengthen in their benefit and to form of political blackmail sometimes, agreements and previously approved laws and validated by the European Council in which they are already represented legally.   

The European Union should be aware that that entire Country or Nation that he doesn't agree on undergoing this rigidity, should abandon its status of permanent member of the European Union, it is not necessary to think of the total expulsion he will be able to continue being part of the same UE but in associate's quality or attaché, already returning to the figure lived of being simply member of an European Common Market, but he won't have neither voice neither I vote neither it will perceive any type of grant of the European bottom of compensation.    

He will have the advantages of free trade with the union and he will be able to in the moment that he requests it and complete the requirements and appropriate parameters, to request the total reincorporation of full right to the European Union, accepting the laws of government of the Union unconditionally. The European Union should understand that he is better being few and all united ones that many and without union some. This first and great step would take us without a doubt after some years to the total European unification. 

Once taken this very hard political, hard decision, measured reactivation of the European economy should be applied, we leave of the base that the fall has already been sustained, what it is necessary to make quickly is to look for reactivation measures, of the economy 

1º. - to Increase the circulating monetary mass of Eurus 20% and at the same time to devaluate the euro in also 20%, that is to say to put the euro more or less to a change of 110 dollars. 

2º. - to Go down the interest from the money to 0,50% up to 2015, starting from this year in that this slope and the devaluation will have reactivated the production and maybe fact to go up the inflation, to go increasing the cost of the money between annual point up to the 2020 (final of the damned decade) with the cost to 3%,  

3º. - to let that the inflation ascends until 4% like end maximum arrival to this figure, if it is that it arrives, it was stabilized and it began to lower for the pressure of the increase of the interests and for the stabilization of the reactivation of the economy that will have taken place in theory. 

 With these economic measures the exports and the internal production were reactivated, the internal consumption accelerated, as well as the credit flow to the companies and matters, with these measures you should reactivate the labor market, the imports will be retained when going up its price, this balanced the scale of payments and it avoided the possibility of an excessive inflation. The knowledge of the interests of the money and their preset evolution, it will allow the concession of credits to the investment and the consumption and their calculation in what concerns to their costs of paying-offs, objective fact and that it is very necessary for the taking of investment decisions in companies and of the expense for the matters. Of course it will be necessary the control of the evolution of the established plans, of there the importance of the points related with the political governability of the union, because if something doesn't work like it would be of waiting, you cannot be one year to rectify in a sense or another. 

The European Union should understand that in these moments it is not any economic colossus, rather on the contrary, and it cannot be allowed to sustain a foreign currency that is very above its real value, this should stop it immediately because it is the logical thing, all the parameters that give value to a foreign currency are for the floors, there is not productivity, there is galloping debt, unemployment almost to 12%, we don't have own resources, my question is clear that he gives value to the euro so that 35% is quoted above the Dollar, alone there is an explanation the international speculation, all this is hard, very hard, but it is question of saying course, we are here, and from here we will go back to truly be the European giant that we want to be. I maxi me if like it seems we want to implement a new unique market jointly with the USA.  

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