The Troika -
BCE, IMF and European Commission - that arrived on Monday to Spain in their
fifth visit it has shown their concern for the recurrent business of the
Spanish banking. The men of black, as the minister denominated them Montoro,
with their peculiar sense of humor, they have taken a step more in their
analysis of the Spanish entities and they doubt that 2014 will be a good year
for the sector, because they say this, if here the minister Montoro and De
Guindos, they don't get tired of telling us that we are leaving the
crisis.
Because they
say it because in the meetings that have maintained and that they finish today
Thursday, the inspectors have asked for the form that they have the Spanish
banks to increase their recurrent revenues in a crisis moment like the current
one. According to The Country that mentions present sources in the meetings,
the Troika would have shown its concern for this aspect and especially in the
entities centered in the local market. The sources have assured to the
newspaper that 2014 will still be a hard year for the banking. The Troika is
aware of the situation difficult to the one that still faces the sector in
Spain.
The
technicians of the very political troika they, notice that one of the main
sources of business of the Spanish banking is the mortgages and the types of
interest that are in historical minima, for what they could continue seeing the
next one 2014 like they continue falling their margins. Also, the mortgages moor
is far from having played bottom according to the experts. Thank you for their
discretion, it also interests you to maintain this posture of tranquility,
giving a verdict that everybody gives for good and therefore "here don't
put neither they remove king, alone they help to their financial"
markets.
But the
reality is another very different one, you look at the banks they have given
its it mortgages loads to the
"Sareb", this is so well-known that to outline the lack of mortgages
as a dangerous fact of wrong bank business is the necessity to say something
for not explaining the reality, the Spanish banking doesn't give real estate
mortgages in years again, at least in 15 years that it is the load of floors or
free or available housings that crawl in the passive of the banks and the
Sareb, it is so disastrous this topic that won't exist in Spain during those 15
years that I calculate the real estate business, everything the one will be in
hands of funds or investors vultures that liquidated them completely, without
necessity of the Spanish banking.
That doesn't
mean that the banks maintain some properties in their wallet and they go them
selling, but that alone they are residual operations and that they won't leave
their circle "I blindfold it to you I finance" it to you, the problem
of the Spanish banking is the same one that that of the freeways of Madrid or
the airports of AENA, there are so many that cannot stay neither to justify,
because neither there is so much circulation in Madrid and surroundings neither
so many airplanes neither tourists in Castellón, City Real, etc.
Spain without
economic bubbles, and with the situation of cuttings forced by the deficits, he
doesn't have enough GDP to be able to maintain open and assets so many banks
like he has, and this circumstance is not of now, this already comes from a
distance, but like I have said other times in Spain during the wonderful
decades of 1990/2010, the banks they have worked making single notes
accountants, but without leaning on in any mass monetary able to support them,
the Spanish debt is cause of this, the thousands of assets that figured in the
balances of the banks were simply numbers without any back, for that reason the
debt before 2010 was of the lowest in europa, and in single three years we will
pass of a debt from 45% to 100% of the GDP, that like he explains to himself if
there is not activity to finance, because simply we are really paying all the
numbers of the balances in Eurus.
But this no
longer has remedy it is impossible that Spain maintains business to maintain
three systemic banks Santander, BBVA, and Bankia it is completely impossible,
the Santander and the BBVA can make it because the reality now is that its
business is outside of Spain, but the bad thing is that the final
responsibility this in Spain where their power stations are located that god us
admitted cripple when in Brazil, Argentina Chile Mexico or England gorge of the
foreign banking and say that they stay it, good-bye to the Santander and the
BBVA and indirectly to Bankia because it is that is to say another san
"Flaw José" cardboard stone.
It is also the
whole national banking in which we are with: Caixa Bank, Sabadell, Popular,
Bankinter, etc. mainly both first they are absorbing a lot of national market, so
that they can make while the three systemic some work outside and the other one
maintains it the public treasure, but how much it will last this situation that
certainly Spain doesn't control that passed the Santander or the BBVA how they
despoil them "Its Dead" Cow we wait that they take a lot, but to base
some systemic entities on the capacity to survive for its activity made outside
of its original base, it is an undated permanent suicide of execution.
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