At the beginning of the crisis of the euro zone,
habitual was that a first minister or a responsible for finances, taken by the
panic, declare that their country was not as other - especially as Greece -.
But the political lies didn't serve of a lot to avoid the propagation of the
crisis. But now that the infection has contaminated the whole euro zone, those
declarations continue having certain weight: each country confronts its own
internal problems trying to differ of the other ones, in place that to make
just the opposite that it would be the only and effective solution to the
crumbling of the economy of the euro.
That is the danger that can be extracted of the last
announced changes on Friday for Standard & Poor's in their ratings. The decisions
around the valuations are no longer motivated by institutional problems
generalized in the euro zone, like it happened in January of 2012, when S&P
revised 16 nations of the region and it reduced the qualification of nine of
them. But they don't create that this is to go to better, S&P doesn't
believe that the crisis of the euro zone has finished. But rather it is
adopting a more differentiated perspective and that doesn't doubt it will
complicate much more their resolution if it is that it arrives at some
time.
For example, Cyprus is the biggest surprise in this
sense, since he has obtained an improvement to B - only some months after its
disordered rescue. The economy is demonstrating a resistance bigger than what
many thought: S&P thinks now a contraction of 8% of the GDP this year
instead of 14% that predicted in July. The Government is obtaining critical
favorable of the euro zone and of the International Monetary Fund. They already
come it is that after the bewilderment and of the practically the three stays
now of the principle he gets ready alone but this has trap since in form of oil
resources it exists the possibility that new discoveries of hydrocarbons in the
bottom of the sea can improve the perspectives of their GDP, although this will
depend on the relationships with Turkey.
Spain, on the other hand, continues obtaining the back
to the measures that he has taken to reform its economy: S&P improved its
negative perspective to stable. It is an important step keeping in mind that he
has a rating BBB -, fair in the limit of the status of investment grade; the
Spanish funds obtained good results on Friday. Spain has to make progresses
with the structural reformations, the reduction of the deficit and the one
gives leverage so that its qualification continues improving, but it is evident
that although it progresses in the correct address, we won't find petroleum
unless they decide to make it in the waters Canaries neither we will reduce the
unemployment if it is not with the help of the whole European economy.
Holland is now the one that more suffers the decontrol
of the euro, since its rating has fallen to AA+ from AAA. This doesn't have a
lot of importance for the debt markets, and the Dutch funds you grieve they
move. But the problem to which faces the country is also of own character: the
high leverage of the homes and the growth of the unemployment limit the
consumption although, the cost of the debt continues under, the discount of
reflective S&P the long term descent of the potential of growth.
S&P assures that the total rating of the euro zone,
based on the qualifications of its members valued by the GDP, would be located
among AA - and A+. In fact, the qualifications oscillate among the AAA of
Germany, Finland and Luxemburg to the B - of Greece and Cyprus; the rating of
the small Estonia only fits with the stocking of the euro zone, he would be
necessary to see the possibility that another small nation refers perfectly to Catalonia
it could be located in the European stocking as Estonia.
These divergences suppose a big problem for the euro zone
and mainly for the European Central Bank and their monetary politics common to
all the members. However, the remedies to this problem say from the BCE they
are in the capital of each country. The true changes will take place at
national level. And while the UE thinks this way this he doesn't have solution
but just the opposite, every time there is but devaluations of credit
qualification, that indicates that the things for separate don't get ready and
they also demonstrate that the euro area, is not the European Union, but a
conglomerate of countries without any control that they are limited to pay and
to get paid in made Eurus that I omen this way him a relative little time of
life of continuing.
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