There is not
movement some the UE he is waiting I don't know that alone I know that it is
not a miracle but just the opposite wait that he/she falls a ray and it
destroys it this is the plan I am sure the UE and the Euro tolerate because
nobody dares to be the one that is depicted in the world history as which I
finally make the decision of finishing with an UE that no longer exists in the
practice, in this year for example have passed of an incipient and un restrain
able recovery, to worry about a turn to the recession.
In the horizon
they begin to appear the black clouds of a new relapse, the third in six years,
however, before being unchained the storm they begin the first drops that
advance the storm in form of the poor economic data that have begun to be
published in the euro area to fall. The fear to a new relapse of the economy
you has generalized, but toward where do they aim the first indicators?
To these
heights of the year, Germany is presented like one of the countries of the euro
zone that will have more complicated to avoid the recession that technically he
takes place when two trimesters of contraction of the GDP are chained. Between
April and June their economy fell 0,2 percent, for what another descent will
already cause the technical recession. The data that have left publishing of
the third trimester are of all less positive ones. The great German motor, the
industry, it is passing a complicated phase: the production of the country fell
3% inter annual in August.
This figure
doesn't only reflect the first descent from July, but rather, also, it supposes
a reminiscence of the recession of 2012. They return old ghosts. A fall of 3,1
percent in November of that year served like advance of the crisis that he
came. The surveys of trust, it leaves of the most reliable early indicators to
measure the economic pulse, they also point toward the recession. The PMI
manufacturer has also fallen in September below 50 (limit that separates
contraction expansion) in the one that is its first descent in 14 months.
What does it
pass with the labor market of Germany that so many praises receive? The reality
is that the recovery has stopped in dry. In the last five months 37.000 people
have been aimed in the lists of the unemployment, a significant tendency
change. That that more me stranger is because the markets are asked this
question when the answer is in view of all the German market he stops because
the measures imposed by Germany have stopped the market when ruining the
economies of the UE, and with Germany in recession and France totally stagnated
during the first half of the year, but with some consumption levels and frozen
investment, it is unthinkable, to think of a reactivation.
What seems
more possible is that Europe cuts all hope that the vigorous roots toss flower.
And this situation will already produce a worsening of the crisis almost
perpetual that suffer in Spain. One of the pillars of the recovery of the
Spanish economy has been the exports; however, the deterioration of the
commercial partners of the country is turning off this motor of growth. In
August the sales to the foreigner fell 5,1 percent inter annual, what supposes
the first August in negative from the year 2009. The stop of the exports is
reflected in a smaller intensity of growth of the industrial production that
advances to its smallest rhythm from October of 2013.
With Germany
on the edge of the recession, the possibilities that the group of the euro zone
doesn't fall in the third recession they are remote. And arrived to this point
there is not more remedy than to consider that old one said that at third the conquered one goes.
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