lunes, 2 de diciembre de 2013

THE ANGLO-SAXON CORSAIRS ATTACK US OF NEW THEY HAVE EVERYTHING TO THEIR FAVOR, THE UE DOESN'T REACT


At the beginning of the crisis of the euro zone, habitual was that a first minister or a responsible for finances, taken by the panic, declare that their country was not as other - especially as Greece -. But the political lies didn't serve of a lot to avoid the propagation of the crisis. But now that the infection has contaminated the whole euro zone, those declarations continue having certain weight: each country confronts its own internal problems trying to differ of the other ones, in place that to make just the opposite that it would be the only and effective solution to the crumbling of the economy of the euro.  

That is the danger that can be extracted of the last announced changes on Friday for Standard & Poor's in their ratings. The decisions around the valuations are no longer motivated by institutional problems generalized in the euro zone, like it happened in January of 2012, when S&P revised 16 nations of the region and it reduced the qualification of nine of them. But they don't create that this is to go to better, S&P doesn't believe that the crisis of the euro zone has finished. But rather it is adopting a more differentiated perspective and that doesn't doubt it will complicate much more their resolution if it is that it arrives at some time.  

For example, Cyprus is the biggest surprise in this sense, since he has obtained an improvement to B - only some months after its disordered rescue. The economy is demonstrating a resistance bigger than what many thought: S&P thinks now a contraction of 8% of the GDP this year instead of 14% that predicted in July. The Government is obtaining critical favorable of the euro zone and of the International Monetary Fund. They already come it is that after the bewilderment and of the practically the three stays now of the principle he gets ready alone but this has trap since in form of oil resources it exists the possibility that new discoveries of hydrocarbons in the bottom of the sea can improve the perspectives of their GDP, although this will depend on the relationships with Turkey.  

Spain, on the other hand, continues obtaining the back to the measures that he has taken to reform its economy: S&P improved its negative perspective to stable. It is an important step keeping in mind that he has a rating BBB -, fair in the limit of the status of investment grade; the Spanish funds obtained good results on Friday. Spain has to make progresses with the structural reformations, the reduction of the deficit and the one gives leverage so that its qualification continues improving, but it is evident that although it progresses in the correct address, we won't find petroleum unless they decide to make it in the waters Canaries neither we will reduce the unemployment if it is not with the help of the whole European economy.  

Holland is now the one that more suffers the decontrol of the euro, since its rating has fallen to AA+ from AAA. This doesn't have a lot of importance for the debt markets, and the Dutch funds you grieve they move. But the problem to which faces the country is also of own character: the high leverage of the homes and the growth of the unemployment limit the consumption although, the cost of the debt continues under, the discount of reflective S&P the long term descent of the potential of growth.  

S&P assures that the total rating of the euro zone, based on the qualifications of its members valued by the GDP, would be located among AA - and A+. In fact, the qualifications oscillate among the AAA of Germany, Finland and Luxemburg to the B - of Greece and Cyprus; the rating of the small Estonia only fits with the stocking of the euro zone, he would be necessary to see the possibility that another small nation refers perfectly to Catalonia it could be located in the European stocking as Estonia.  

These divergences suppose a big problem for the euro zone and mainly for the European Central Bank and their monetary politics common to all the members. However, the remedies to this problem say from the BCE they are in the capital of each country. The true changes will take place at national level. And while the UE thinks this way this he doesn't have solution but just the opposite, every time there is but devaluations of credit qualification, that indicates that the things for separate don't get ready and they also demonstrate that the euro area, is not the European Union, but a conglomerate of countries without any control that they are limited to pay and to get paid in made Eurus that I omen this way him a relative little time of life of continuing.  

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