jueves, 5 de diciembre de 2013

THEY DON'T BELIEVE IT TO HIM WHEN I SAY THAT SPAIN CANNOT MAINTAIN ITS SYSTEMIC ECONOMIC STRUCTURES.


The Troika - BCE, IMF and European Commission - that arrived on Monday to Spain in their fifth visit it has shown their concern for the recurrent business of the Spanish banking. The men of black, as the minister denominated them Montoro, with their peculiar sense of humor, they have taken a step more in their analysis of the Spanish entities and they doubt that 2014 will be a good year for the sector, because they say this, if here the minister Montoro and De Guindos, they don't get tired of telling us that we are leaving the crisis. 

Because they say it because in the meetings that have maintained and that they finish today Thursday, the inspectors have asked for the form that they have the Spanish banks to increase their recurrent revenues in a crisis moment like the current one. According to The Country that mentions present sources in the meetings, the Troika would have shown its concern for this aspect and especially in the entities centered in the local market. The sources have assured to the newspaper that 2014 will still be a hard year for the banking. The Troika is aware of the situation difficult to the one that still faces the sector in Spain.  

The technicians of the very political troika they, notice that one of the main sources of business of the Spanish banking is the mortgages and the types of interest that are in historical minima, for what they could continue seeing the next one 2014 like they continue falling their margins. Also, the mortgages moor is far from having played bottom according to the experts. Thank you for their discretion, it also interests you to maintain this posture of tranquility, giving a verdict that everybody gives for good and therefore "here don't put neither they remove king, alone they help to their financial" markets. 

But the reality is another very different one, you look at the banks they have given its it mortgages  loads to the "Sareb", this is so well-known that to outline the lack of mortgages as a dangerous fact of wrong bank business is the necessity to say something for not explaining the reality, the Spanish banking doesn't give real estate mortgages in years again, at least in 15 years that it is the load of floors or free or available housings that crawl in the passive of the banks and the Sareb, it is so disastrous this topic that won't exist in Spain during those 15 years that I calculate the real estate business, everything the one will be in hands of funds or investors vultures that liquidated them completely, without necessity of the Spanish banking. 

That doesn't mean that the banks maintain some properties in their wallet and they go them selling, but that alone they are residual operations and that they won't leave their circle "I blindfold it to you I finance" it to you, the problem of the Spanish banking is the same one that that of the freeways of Madrid or the airports of AENA, there are so many that cannot stay neither to justify, because neither there is so much circulation in Madrid and surroundings neither so many airplanes neither tourists in Castellón, City Real, etc.  

Spain without economic bubbles, and with the situation of cuttings forced by the deficits, he doesn't have enough GDP to be able to maintain open and assets so many banks like he has, and this circumstance is not of now, this already comes from a distance, but like I have said other times in Spain during the wonderful decades of 1990/2010, the banks they have worked making single notes accountants, but without leaning on in any mass monetary able to support them, the Spanish debt is cause of this, the thousands of assets that figured in the balances of the banks were simply numbers without any back, for that reason the debt before 2010 was of the lowest in europa, and in single three years we will pass of a debt from 45% to 100% of the GDP, that like he explains to himself if there is not activity to finance, because simply we are really paying all the numbers of the balances in Eurus. 

But this no longer has remedy it is impossible that Spain maintains business to maintain three systemic banks Santander, BBVA, and Bankia it is completely impossible, the Santander and the BBVA can make it because the reality now is that its business is outside of Spain, but the bad thing is that the final responsibility this in Spain where their power stations are located that god us admitted cripple when in Brazil, Argentina Chile Mexico or England gorge of the foreign banking and say that they stay it, good-bye to the Santander and the BBVA and indirectly to Bankia because it is that is to say another san "Flaw José" cardboard stone. 

It is also the whole national banking in which we are with: Caixa Bank, Sabadell, Popular, Bankinter, etc. mainly both first they are absorbing a lot of national market, so that they can make while the three systemic some work outside and the other one maintains it the public treasure, but how much it will last this situation that certainly Spain doesn't control that passed the Santander or the BBVA how they despoil them "Its Dead" Cow we wait that they take a lot, but to base some systemic entities on the capacity to survive for its activity made outside of its original base, it is an undated permanent suicide of execution. 

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