THE EURO IN JUNEIT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT GREECE THAT THE UE WILL PRESIDE OVER FROM JANUARY YOU LEAVES

The incongruities of the europa of the euro are so outside of the normal thing that they make to the euro area something almost surrealist but maybe it is something that the markets no longer worry about it: the one that gets ready is of fright next January he took the presidency of the UE and of course of the euro area a country that is more was that inside of that I am speaking of such Greece and like they are the things in that country and in the whole europa south it is more than possible that Greece abandons dramatically and suddenly the euro.  

Many predicted that Greece would abandon the euro in 2011 or 2012, but it was not this way. On the contrary, a modest quantity of debt was condoned and the Europeans put on hands to the work, year after year, creating in Greece an absolute recession. But the important thing for the UE was never the country but the euro it could not be that amid the economic storm of the 2011/12 breaks up the euro area with the own euro he would have fallen, but the markets already stopped to worry about the Greek exit of the euro, and you has even ended up speaking of recovery, but in fact, the exit has not vanished in any moment but rather it has been postponed. 

The reason of this is that to Greece it was not he possible to leave of the unique currency in 2012 neither in 2013. He didn't have means to pay it alone. Next year, a commercial and budgetary surplus will make that it can leave if he wants. They have taken off the padlocks of the door and it would be precipitate to give for fact that Greece won't cross it. If he makes it, be surely in spring when it finishes their European presidency. The country takes in recession six followed years and there are few recovery signs in a next future. You prevue that he will close 2013 with a production 4% lower that at the beginning of year. 

In general, the economy has lost 25% of what was when the recession began. For example, the economy of USA shrank a little more than 30% in the Great Depression of the thirty, so what has happened to Greece is not so serious but he comes closer. The unemployment has reached some levels of fright (like in Spain): it affects to 27% of the manpower and 55% of the youths. The Government can that it foresees a modest recovery in 2014 (like in Spain) but the OECD believes that it will continue in recession. In fact, the Government, the UE and the IMF take predicting a turnaround from 2011 that it has not still been materialized neither there are many reasons to think that he will make it in 2014. 

Up to now, the Greeks have assumed their destination, but in fact, the economic recovery is more far that never. According to a study of Capital Renaissance, for each Greek that works there are two that are in unemployment, the highest index in the world. The wages fall in real terms because the massive unemployment forces the workers to accept smaller salaries but they continue being higher than in countries like Poland or Hungary, and while it continues this way, it costs to imagine the installation of industries multinational exporters in the country so necessary to reduce the unemployment, this same it is valid for Spain.  

In spite of this drop it forms, of the economy, something has changed in the last two years. Now Greece presents a commercial surplus. The tourism, their main export, it has gone up 12% this year thanks to the slope of the prices for the fall of the wages in a very dependent sector of the manpower. The massive unemployment and the salary reduction have made that Greece cares a lot less than before.  

The net result is that the country now is paid to itself and he doesn't depend on requesting money in the international markets of capital neither of accepting rescues of the UE to continue to it floats. In 2014 the Government will also present a primary surplus. The cuttings of the public expense have been brutal but they have completed their made: in the first eleven months of the year, the state expense went down to 50.000 millions, in front of 58.000 in the same period of 2012. Greece won't enter enough with the taxes to pay the devastating interests of its debts but it will accumulate enough money like to cover its expenses of daily administration.  

So now, the calculations have changed. In 2014, Greece will be able to leave the euro without requesting help to anybody. A new drachma would be a perfectly solid currency, as that of any country with commercial surplus. Also, the surplus will increase because a much devaluated new currency will still impel more the exports. And the Government won't collapse. He will have enough money like to cover their daily necessities. It is certain that perhaps he cannot pay their debts but it won't care a lot if it opts for the unpaid one or it returns them in drachmas instead of Eurus. If it is necessary him more money, only has to print it. To be left will no longer be an economic problem. 

But it is that also in these years of uncertainty those worthy of Greece have already been counted the losses of what has supposed the remove and what would suppose the abandonment of the euro and therefore the conversion of interests or debts in Dragmas nobody knows with certainty if it will happen but the option is there. Catalonia sees taking note.