miércoles, 20 de agosto de 2014

AUSTERITY, DEBT, FUNDS, DEFICIT, AND THE REACTIVACIÓN FOR WHEN



We don't advance he swims all the characters and the political europa at all, they are obsessed in the economic and financial theories, they go giving turns to the roulette to have if by chance they guess right then I number, the color, and the even or odd, too many things to guess right, among so much the economy years ago had entered in recession, although they don't want to admit it and they play with the statistics of comparing 12 months or four trimesters or a trimester like want, but the reality is that in the last trimester the recession has entered clearly in all the economies of the euro area. The worst thing is not alone that but rather the politicians and the governments are liberated of the blame, accusing to the economic and financial problems as if they were happened however in turn of the space they try to fix for already more than three years and every time they go to worse.  

All now are hoping the BCE returns of vacations he has grace the thing in full confrontation with Russia with the Arab with the euro finally falling the BCE neither he breathes. More wood is needed so that he doesn't stop the European locomotive. It is the reality that begins to extend, don't only enter those and financial analysts of the Old Continent, but also among the own members of the European Central Bank (BCE) those that are not on vacation. The last indicators of the area euro show how the area can enter again in recession at the end of this year.     

In fact, the International Institute of Finances that picks up the impressions of the great European banking already gives for fact a setback of 1% of the GDP. Before this tessitura they are winning force the voices that they advise an action that revives the activity. 1 fall% in the GDP of any nation, it is an increase among other things of the unemployment, and a descent of the collection of taxes, mainly the main one the IVA, with what the budgetary imbalance is revived and the financing necessity increases with the help of sovereign debt, that is to say already we start the wheel of the fortune again.   

The fact that a discount of types took place he has not had any practical effect of reactivation. The necessity to provide liquidity to the financial system and of generating an increment of the activity, it is peremptory but Germany continues determined to sink the euro area and to stay it for her alone, so they don't serve he gives anything the measures forced to apply on the part of Germany to the UE, from the financial economic point of view. If there is not productivity there is no way to square the numbers looks at it for where they want. The origin of the crisis economic Westerner is supported in the abandonment of the industrial production in favor of the commercial and financial globalization of the real economy in current world. 

The matter is simple of explaining, I have referred to this fact countless times, and for years he already gives not me you that insist again, when the globalization system extended, the industry and the production of tangible values and materials you externalize from the first world toward the emergent world, looking for the benefit of its double effect, the economic one, cheap manpower on one hand, and the intent of breaking the poor population's migratory movements toward the first world.  

But he fell in a serious error, the greed, the world rich Westerner wanted the saving of costs that the cheap manpower caused to take advantage and to transform them into more economic benefits, instead of social, so I don't lower prices if not that it continued marketing at the same level of prices with which he took place in occident, but unintentionally to see that to these western consumers, little by little no longer he entered them the same flow of money to acquire them, and the companies producers went closing or give being located one after other, as consequence the fiscal revenues lowered in dive, solution credit and economic bubbles, until he has not been possible to support more. 

If the politics and the European economy doesn't admit this reasoning, and it doesn't change it, they can already give all the norms of cuttings of budgets, to speak of European funds, or what they want, alone they will be good to finance debts and to impoverish but its economies for anything but, what it is necessary to already make, is to finance the productive reactivation of our economies, so that they produce real revenues coming from the commercialization of the factory of consumption goods again, and of course also of services and of technology. It should be the national civil society it starts it the real economy, because with the numeric economy, that is to say based on passing figures from the asset to the passive one he/she doesn't leave anywhere. 

I repeat my theory, it is not necessary to lower the interests of the money, to see of reactivating the credits, and mainly it is necessary to devaluate the euro at least 15% according to the value of today closing, with this calculates that the economy enters in inflation until a maximum of 6% during a period of time, until the turn to the growth of the GDP among a 2 to 3%. in summary production recovery, reserved of imports of basic products to the possible maximum, and you help to the technological development that provides export, the increment of internal consumption he will take place for inertia of the previous effects. It is evident that as soon as our to strengthen production and internal consumption, the economies supplying today they will put us obstacles to the commercial exchange except if our offer, is very above its technological qualities as much in quality as in the utility and the design of our offer. 

In the German central bank he also stays silence. However, the German managers have already shown their interest in reviving the economy of their commercial partners with slopes of types. Pity that at the moment alone they are the managers and not the politicians those that come the things with the eyes of the real world, because it is necessary that this theory extends to the politics, otherwise these they will continue giving turns in the carrousel of economic crisis without finding the exit, because it is not in the address in that they move. 

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