THE EURO AREA WON'T TOLERATE THE AUTUMN WITH THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION

The president of the European Central Bank (BCE), Mario Draghi, he has said that the biggest geopolitical risks that are given at the present time suppose a risk for the growth of the area of the euro. Oh with gift Mario for that is not necessary to be a president of anything any human that knows how to read and to count he knows that the geopolitical problems always carry financial conflicts with what stops the economic expansion if it is that it has ended up her to really have in the euro area (excepting Germany) 

The BCE that decided to maintain its interest rate in the historical minimum of 0,15%, considers that these geopolitical risks could have an effect in the prices of the energy and in the demand of products of the area of the euro, undoubtedly they will have them that is to say they already have them and to all this lack to add the sanctions from Russia to the markets producing of basic matters that it has already imposed because surprisingly it USA and the UE castrates the rich Russian and however Putin punishes the poor Europeans it is evident that he knows but Putin for devil that for old. 

In definitive the thing is simple the europa of the euro is drained and the other one continues in the well of the laments this it is the next future and when I say next I refer to the last trimester of 2014, when, Draghi refers to the increase of the geopolitical risks it mentions in short Russia, Ukraine, Iraq, Gaza, Syria and Libya. I believe that one doesn't leave none although after today's results in Turkey should add it to the list. 

It is evident that the tension between Russia and Ukraine will have an impact in the area of the biggest euro that in other areas of the world for what the BCE will observe the repercussion from the sanctions to Russia, I believe that if single aim in an address makes a mistake in great way because the economic imbalances caused by the Russian-Ukrainian geopolitics will take place that is to say in contrary address the sanctions to Russia they paid them the European poor countries. 

The risks for the economic perspectives of the area of the euro continue to the drop. In short, bigger geopolitical risks, as well as the events in the emergent market economies and the global financial markets can have the potential of affecting the conditions of the economy negatively, through effects in the prices of the energy and the fall of the demand of products of the area of the euro, another of the risks for the growth is the insufficient structural reformations in the countries of the area of the euro, as well as the already more than proven fall of a weaker internal demand of that waited. 

The inflation in the euro area is low and it will continue low and this is the sign of inability of the consumption society of consuming and the inflation expectations continue anchored with the stability of prices, because it continues anchored the stability to the drop of the credo and of the consumption and let us no longer say the unemployment (case of Spain). The main command of the BCE is to maintain the stability of prices in the area of the euro that defines like a rate of near inflation, although below 2%, ridiculous mission because today this inflation is unthinkable unless once and for all the BCE really works to get it.   

The Interior Product Brute (GDP) of Italy in the second trimester of the year has experienced a contraction of 0,2% regarding the three previous months, when it had already lowered 0,1%, what implies the relapse of the country transalpine in technical recession when chaining two serial trimesters in negative. According to the preliminary estimates published by the Statistical Institute of Italy, the Italian economy registered a contraction of tenth three in comparison with the second trimester of 2013, what supposes the eleventh serial trimester in negative. 

The Italian economy, the third bigger than the area euro, it had been able to emerge of the recession in the fourth trimester of 2013, when their GDP registered a modest expansion of 0,1% regarding the three previous months, after accumulating nine trimesters followed by fallen of the activity. But it is not single Italy the one that doesn't work it is that the other great economy euro that is to say France this in the border of the recession their last economic data are not able to lift the GDP but there of a rickety 0,5% this doesn't also have slips of changing so much for the own structure of the French industry as for their fall of the internal consumption but the problems that the geopolitical aspects bring with them. 

Italy and France add 37% of the GDP of the euro area this means that they overcome in a lot to the GDP of Germany that is of 28% and to all this lack Spain that is 11%, but in fact bad him in spite of the PP and to the government of Mr. Rajoy neither they keep it in mind they will simply allow to fall in case the situation of social abandonment and of the unemployment of the country it ends up putting in impossible the budgetary execution that Germany has forced Rajoy to make to the Spaniards. 

There is not another question to keep in mind the euro it is evident that it didn't tolerate it is impossible that 50% of the GDP of the euro (the big countries before mentioned but Portugal and Greece) first they can be sustained themselves and later to sustain the global economy of the euro that is to say to the other 50% without dragging it so to the crash alone it is question of time and of logic, the things either threw in September for well or for bad but today everything aims that for bad my forecast is that first it will be the Great Britain the one that the UE left and later the most logical thing will be that they make it the small countries but with their cleaned up economies, and arrived to this point Germany inviting to that they are the three big France Italy and Spain reacted quickly more the two satellites Greece and Portugal to that they stop to belong to the euro and stay that is to say in a commercial treaty in an European Common Market that should never change.