ECONOMY. THE CHOCOLATE OF THE PARROT ENDS

You can no longer sustain more time the current crisis with the help of not capitalizing the money it seems already that the things will return to their place and the big debtors won't be able to continue getting in debt as happily as up to now and there is the problem that they will make here because what is clear is that A. - there will break debts, and B. - they will return more money for those than they have. The central bankers from all over the world are saying to their homologous of the American Federal Reservation that are prepared for a he runs off with of the types of interest and that they would prefer that the organism made the decision without more preambles. 

So much in public as in private in the conference of central bankers that was developed in Jackson Hole, the message of authorities was that the Fed telegraphed a hardening monetary initial and, after a he runs off with of the dollar that is prolonged for one year, the financial markets at world level they say to be as prepared as they could be. I believe that the volatility of the markets last week went more as preparation to this event that not to the restlessness of the economy China. The Dow Jones collapsed in 1.000 points on Monday in the face of the concerns about an economic deceleration in China, but then he recovered to finish the week with earnings. 

Some accused from the volatility to the comments of officials of the Fed that the ascent of types would take place by the middle of September. For governor of the central bank of Mexico, an increment of the federal funds on the part of its neighbor sends an encouraging sign of economic health, even if that forces to its institution to also go up the types. "If the Fed hardens (the monetary politics), he will be due to the fact that they have a perception that the inflation is advancing, but more important it is still that the unemployment is falling and the economy is recovering", Carstens affirmed in an interview with Reuters". For us that it is a good news", he added. 

In spite of the fact that Yao Yudong, official of the Popular Bank of China, accused last week to the Fed for the turbulences of the market and he said that a he runs off with of types it should be postponed, most of the central bankers of emergent markets contacted by Reuters in Jackson Hole and in the last months they share the vision of Carstens. The end of more than six years of types in levels minimum record in United States could produce a potential wave of painful adjustments while the countries fight with the probability of a stronger included dollar and in the face of exits of capitals and changes in the relative prices of goods. 

However, the end of the uncertainty for the authorities could compensate those difficulties. Effects of the lax ultra-monetary politics in United States have been felt in countries so diverse as Chile and Switzerland. The inflation annualized in Chile has been consistently above the objective range of the Central Bank of between a 2 and 4 percent. Latin America has seen an increase of the inflation as the countries "internalizing" the evolution of the monetary politics of the Fed, the president of the Chilean Central Bank, Rodrigo assured Vergara, in the conference. 

That tendency type has been in progress during about two years, when the ex-president of the Fed Ben Bernanke untied a strong tension in the markets after suggesting that the central bank was prepared to reduce its program of purchase of funds. Two years later, the authorities of the Fed say that certain volatility is unavoidable when the politics becomes hard. The emergent markets, the smallest economies, often look for to have a weaker currency. So from their perspective a hardening of the Fed could be useful to weaken its foreign currency and to help them for what they want to make that is supposed it is to be more competitive in front of the dollar. 

Iodine this is well from the point of view of the macroeconomics but of the central banks but the economy of the street will pass it very bad of entrance an ascent of interest elevates the cost of the debt immediately and of the deficit of the bills of the states it urges the import products to all the poor countries and I include in this chapter to Russia because to these countries that or they are producing of petroleum or of maters basic agricultural mainly, they will pay them less and less dollars and however they, will have to pay and to return more dollars: one because the dollar will strengthen and another cause, because its currency was devaluated. 

Me the truth is that I believe that too much of the time has been abused granted by the Fed maintaining the price from the money to “0”, this at the end has made that numerous economies have thought of era the future one and it was not this way and now he will see, Spain for example has elevated its debt in more than 25% spending from 800 to 1000 million Eurus during this period of cheap money now will have to return it more expensive, because the euro doesn't doubt it was devaluated in front of the dollar, but the interests also rose in Europe, the BCE won't take a lot in making it when he makes it the Fed.  

At the end we will realize that during every year this alone maneuver has been good to maintain the illusion that it was facilitated to the economies the possibility to leave the crisis, thanks to paying less for the money. But the problem is now, because the economies of half world didn't understand this way it, but rather they understood that this facilitated them to get in debt more and more because they were saved a lot in interests. Now the saving finished now this saving he becomes in more cost and expense, at the end we will have saved ourselves alone the chocolate dl parrot.