Japan step
10 years between the life and the death of their economy "The lost decade”
that has been given in calling and it was possibly for the same thing for that
that now we will suffer it in Europe "for not being believed the
reality" to suppose that it could not be that Japan could not lose another
war that its industry its obedience its good one to make could not pay them
with that economic disaster, and if he could they never fell in the darkest
deflation lived by country some because it was worse than the depression of the
29 in the USA. But it seems that it is finally leaving to it floats.
Well this
example uses it because it is of madness to see as the UE that I study the
American depression that he saw the Japanese depression now he goes and he
enters inside his own because passing the tip of graveness of the economic
crisis now receives us the depression and this is today for unavoidable today
they say what the most famous economists and the governments say and political
of the UE, the crisis was not confronted well instead of making him front like
an unit of countries was made so that each one the manages like he could
because you wondered because very easy because the crisis was not of the same
intensity in Spain and Greece that in Germany or Holland.
And there
was not nobody that wanted to see that this circumstance was momentary and that
when the economies unite by means of oneself currency this it drags them to all
for very different crisis grades that there is, because the crisis had come and
it was necessary to overcome it with a currency the euro. That simple Spain for
example got in debt in Eurus when he was not able to its economy to produce
them so to the rhythm in that consumed them, the solution it has been to pass
of a debt of 60/80% from the GDP to of 105% which we are about to arrive and
this way this is valid for all the economies that now they drag us to the
deflation and the later economic depression that it lasted while the euro area
lasts because against what the governments and the economists dream every time
this goes worse.
The first critics
that he rushes in my articles were about the value of the euro I asked how it
can be that the foreign currency that it is not a nation but of a Bank and that
he ends up even saying that it could be a foreign currency without back some
because the BCE is not of anybody and of all at the same time with what is not
supported by a public treasure as the dollar or the pound or the Swiss franc
and that it represented a coalition of nations that 60% was practically in
default has a value of 40% above the dollar it is that it was of crazy or of
incautious I no longer know how adjectival "Give-qualifying" to
use
The
economies of the euro area were unbalanced year after year and the European
blindness stayed and it has not been up to this 2015 in that the euro finally
falls of its pedestal and wait you because or those that we cannot continue
paying leave it or the fall in front of the dollar can arrive to a parity of
0.80 the same one that tube when it began its career of disasters for the year
2000. It has been maybe Greece the first one in making jump the truth of this
history but who in fact will put the things in their place it will be France
because the depression has already arrived to its economy.
So much and
so clearly it has arrived that the minister of Economy of the UE have discarded
this Tuesday to sanction to France for their excessive deficit and in their
place they have approved to give him a new two year-old extension, the third
that will last up to 2017, locate it below the limit of 3% of the GDP that
fixes the Pact of Stability and Growth again. To change, the Ecofin demands to
the Government from Paris that adopts before final of April additional adjustments
for this year for value of 0,2%. I sincerely see very difficult that the French
socialist government and the town or the French society as they want they
accept to be made poorer because you tell it some things that it is an
entelechy like they are the UE and the euro.
Although no
State member has voted against the extension to France, the decision has
generated controversy in the debate to door closed in the Ecofin. The hardest
has been the representative of the European Central Bank (BCE) that he has said
that there are not reasons that justify an amplification of more than one year,
as they have informed diplomatic sources.
On the
other hand, the German minister of Finances, Wolfgang Schäuble, it has warned
that the proposal of Brussels of giving more time to Paris supposes to make more
flexible to the maximum the Pact of Stability, and it has claimed France that they
start and it is not limited to announce them. The representatives from Portugal
and Ireland have denounced the difficulty that they have to explain this
decision to their public opinions and they have asked that the Pact is applied
from a symmetrical way to all the countries.
Spain
through their minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos, he has remembered that in
2003 Germany and France they were jumped the Pact of Stability and that the
consequences have been paid (and they are paying) during a lot of time. Guindos
has also highlighted that Spain took advantage of to the maximum the two
year-old extension that achieved in 2013. This is a fallacy because Spain is
worse today that in 2013 from the debt point of view and of political and
social stability, if the UE interests him there to believe it since us but this
is not any solution
It is the
third extension that the Ecofin grants to France that is in situation of
excessive deficit from 2009. The initial term that had been given to Paris to
correct its budgetary deface was 2012. The new amplification of the term is
justified, according to the minister of Economy, for the fiscal effort carried
out by France from 2013 and for the weakness of the economic conditions.
According to the forecasts of winter of Brussels, the Gallic deficit will be
located in 4,3% this year, instead of 3% agreed previously, and in 4,1% in
2016.
When fixing
2017 as the new term, the Ecofin has kept in mind the economic conditions and
other outstanding factors, as the application of structural reformations. And
it demands Paris an adjustment structural annual minimum of 0,5% of the GDP.
With these changes, the new deficit objectives for France are 4% in 2015, 3,4%
in 2016 and 2,8% in 2017. To achieve these goals, additional measures of 0,2%
will be required this year, of 1,2% in 2016 and of 1,3% in 2017. Everything
numbers but there is not any solution the only one possible it is restructuring
of the whole UE and this is impossible as France he goes to produce more GDP
with which components or articles if all he makes it Germany this it is an
example.
For luck I
hope the euro falls until such a low value it is cheaper to all to manufacture
another textile time, shirts, cars, ships, steel and etc. that not to care them
of Chinese Asia or Bangladesh and on the contrary the Euro area cannot care
more than the strictly necessary thing to manufacture here in Europe but like
he said this it arrives late and I fear myself that bad, and I sit down it for
Germany but I know that they will understand it and they will know how to go
down the prices to the value of the new and real value of the euro.
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