viernes, 20 de marzo de 2015

THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS DON'T WANT TO CLIMB THE MOUNT OLYMPUS



Little by little the pressure increases to Greece. On Thursday, the first minister Alexis Tsipras met with the German and French leaders again, the president of the BCE, Mario Draghi, and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Euro group. Surely the reception to Tsipras was rather cold as consequence of the last bill that presented in the Greek Parliament, in the one challenged the international creditors. To the view Syriza and the own Tsipras are believed that the whole mount (Olympus or not) it is oregano, and they believe that the acclaim’s of their Greek society when they harangue them with speeches of impossible proposals he means that they are right.   

Nothing else far from the reality that this. It is probable that Tsipras has the sensation of having won force politics after the last manifestations against the measures of austerity had taken place for some days in Frankfurt, but neither this is this way and also the financial conditions in its country are worsening. The debt public Greek suffers a crisis of the investors' trust again. According to Tradeweb, the yields of the Greek funds with expiration in 2017 they have increased above 22%, and the curve of profitability has also been invested. The prices of the actions of the Greek banks are near the registered minima since the crisis began in 2009.  

Also, capital flights have been detected, mainly soon after that Dijsselbloem declared on Wednesday that is probable that it is necessary to impose capital controls. At the end of January, the individual and commercial deposits reached a lower level that the minimum registered in the summer of 2012. From then on, it is calculated that they will have gotten lost about 10.000 million Eurus approximately. Nevertheless, on Wednesday the Council of Government of the BCE granted a small increment, only of 400 million Eurus, to the emergency bottom that the banks of the country use to substitute the flights of deposits.  

The Greek entities are coming closer to the maximum of 70.000 million Eurus of allowed emergency funds, although they can also appeal to the ordinary financing of the BCE using funds emitted by the European Easiness of Financial Stability. In total, the dependence of the Greek banks of the money of the BCE was duplicated between December and January, reaching the 85.000 million Eurus. The authorities of the BCE seem according with the fact that the Greek banks can consent to emergency funds of up to 120.000 million Eurus, like it happened in 2012.  

If the limits are enlarged, it is probable that the banks have 60.000 million Eurus for emergency financing. However, the mattress of the Hellenic entities is limited and it is probable that the capital controls are the best form of fighting against the capital flights; however, if they are imposed in a unilateral way, they could cause the exit of the country of the euro zona. The time is urgent. 

And the reality is also in a stage in that it seems that nobody wants to make what the politics should be made it has been strained in the economy and this complicates everything it is evident that already nobody doubt that Greece cannot be sustained under the current conditions of debt of costs of interests and with its poor GDP this any economist has it clear but to accept this reality means that Greece should make an imminent default, to leave the euro and to negotiate individually with each one of its creditors how and how much he pays its debts. But then the politics enters in game and everything not gets complicated because the UE and the euro group don't see that the end is this but because nobody wants to be accused of being its blame the one that this pass. 

And I have it very clear the blame of what passes Greece belongs to Greece and its governments, the same thing that what passes Spain is the Spanish governments' blame from 1975 until today, the blame that can be given to the UE is to have believed that what you/they exposed him Greek, Spaniards, Italian and he would say that French and Germans were the truth of their economies of their plans of restructurings and economic expansion I always wonder how the BCE and the UE that Spain bolted building houses useless infrastructures and the second Rail high-speed bigger net allowed. (AVE). 

This is the reason that today makes no concrete the politics of the euro area because in the bottom they feel guilty of having allowed that they strained them all the economic dirt that the poor countries of Europe have strained to the help of the strong euro and of the own selfishness of the investors German, French, American etc…, today to me to understand alone there is a solution to recompose the credibility of the euro area and the hope that the UE survives and this raisin to change attitude and to accept the reality once and for all is European economies that you/they cannot survive with the pressure of the euro. 

One of them is Greece and to try to give him credits lends rescues and what they want doesn't serve as anything they wore out them one after other and the Greek economy will continue being deficit because this it is the problem, I don't say that Greece cannot have like foreign currency the euro what I mean is that it cannot spend it in grants to officials and unemployed that they have more than enough and to that they are it because there are no other industries so that the Greeks work, and the same raisin in Spain for that reason and not for another thing SYRIZA has come out in Greece and PODENOS in Spain.    

The European Union should understand that it is not enough with to give advice and to wait that Greek and Spaniards pay this way them attention for the good ones that need more to realize or a true European union is completed in the one that alone a general government sends, or we are losing the time because each one makes what knows and it cannot be requested more.  

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