To begin I mean that I don't find logical that in the current economic
situation the IMF is devoted to cool the little reactivation that one came
pointing for some months, a world organization as it is the IMF he should have
as objective to make that the world prospers and that with it all the civil
societies improved its level of life. But it is clear that the IMF doesn't
represent to "all the social layers, but only to the rich and
powerful" alone I can understand this way that he makes the warning that
has made and that we can interpret as a warning that or we maintain the poor
where they are, or the rich ones that there is won't be able to maintain its
wealth.
It is incredible as the IMF it can deflate the economy announcing that blow
that "The dynamic era of robust growth and employment creation has
finished" and a phase begins of quasi stagnation in the advanced
economies, this said in a moment in that economies like that of Spain, Italy,
France and of course Greece in Europe, but all the economies of the Latin
America and Africa are still thinking that at some time it will be reality that
we will leave the sub-economy in that they have entered, it is as if to a
convict they deny him the possibility to never obtain the conditional freedom.
Also for if went little it also encourages to the economy to that he
contracts on itself and prepare to defend with fingernails and teeth their
survival, since he notices that the situation that predicts, will coincide
dangerously with very high levels of debt increasing the danger of moratoria.
It is the last bad news coming from the team of analysis of the International
Monetary Fund in a moment of growing concern for the Greek risk of an unpaid
one. It is like to disassemble this institution forever like he can say these
things and to allow that at the same time the economies of the states more or
less rich, end up them to pay to get in debt.
In what we are if there is a risk that the sovereign and private debts are
increased what the IMF should make it is to impede it, that is to say to put
difficulties so that they get in debt the economies motorboats of the
industrial and economic world, however it is not this way, rather on the
contrary, he not makes them alone easy its indebtedness but rather it also
rewards him to him with negative interests, this doesn't make any logical
sense, if the IMF is right what should make is to get that it is not profitable
to get in debt, but just the opposite that the money cannot hide in countries
or economies so that they stay it charging them a small but substantial compensation
of "anti-risk" definition that doesn't exist in the economic word but
that I am not happened another to define the situation.
The great financial crisis of the 2008-2009 knocked the world economy and
it is not very probable that recover the levels of growth previous to the
crisis, he notices the IMF in its report of expectations. (Whose exact
forecasts will be published next week before the biannual assembly in
Washington) The growth in the advanced economies - Europe, USA and Japan - he
fell from 2% to 1,5% - after the crash of Lehman Brothers, being created with
it the paralysis of the credit system at the end of the 2008.
The damage can be permanent. He tells the IMF that is to say the world it
will be unable to overcome, incredible, although with entities of this caliber
it is not of missing I say, he adduces the IMF that alone 1,6% GDP will be
reached in the period from 2015 to 2020 in front of more than 2% registered in
the first decade of the century, I don't know if they know what you/they say or
it is an error of the transmitter of the data, but these numbers indicate that
indeed the world fell in a well the 2008 and he won't move of the current well
like minimum up to the 2020 there is somebody that loves us bad this is
clear.
That a stagnation danger exists in the European economy that suffers a
widespread demand lack and deflationary pressures we know it but at the same
time the BCE knows it of there the "QE" of a trillion Eurus started.
"The financial crises can reduce in a permanent way the level of rent
potential due to the fall of the investment, the structural unemployment and
the active" population's descent. Evidently of that it is to fight now
then against this evidence if the spirits are those of the IMF it is not
worthwhile neither to worry.
The danger of a growth rickety "ad infinitum" is accentuated by
structural factors in very mature economies, in those that the motors of the
growth are already worn-out. The population's aging and a deceleration of the
productivity, make very difficult that the world economy recovers the rates of
growth of the past. Undoubtedly if the IMF seeks that alone they are the
saturated economies and rich as that of USA and half of the euro area more Asia
this was stagnated, because these economies already have everything and the
other ones cannot buy them their products because they don't have means, for
that it is not necessary to be of the IMF any apprentice of economy he knows
it.
The IMF doesn't sink to the “techno optimism” in vogue in Silicon Valley
and Wall Street. The deceleration of the productivity of the last decade
"seems to reflect the decrease of the impact about the growth of the
advances of technology of information". What atrocity that idiocy is that
the IMF really thought that the world economy will reactivate transforming the
world into a Silicon Valley for god love is that they don't have enough with
the globalization of the factory that so much damage has made that now it seeks
that you globalized also the high technology at the end who will make the
brooms and the cubes to clean for god love Ms. Laggard, already resign and
leave home to make stocking, you to direct the world economy don't serve.
It is certain that the emergent economies will grow more than the outposts,
but the rhythm of vertigo disappears the optimism regarding the glorious era of
the BRICs. The half growth in the emergent economies went down from 6.5% to
5,2% in the next five year period. China will face in a much quicker way that
the outposts in its day to the problems of demographic aging, and a
deceleration of the productivity. If but you forget to say that to change
he/she will obtain a rational and continuous stability of their economy.
This is what should happen because it was not of what was to balance the
world economy, of speculating that it is that is to say what was making, to
already sink the western traditional economy saturated and to start a new cheap
economy, but this you already equals it is no longer cheap to manufacture in
Chinese because among other things what they manufacture they already waste
away it and this anger owners with what the globalization should become as a
boomerang and it should return productions and products to its origins he has
to end for example to go to Chinese to make T-shirt when they can be made in
Spain to give an example.
The IMF notices that "the descent of the potential growth will hinder
the reduction of the public and private debt as percentage of the GDP".
This is especially preoccupant for the euro periphery in a moment of enormous
concern in the bottom due to the risk that Greece cannot reimburse credits of
the IMF for thousands of millions of Eurus. Finally, the true reason of this
whole disgusting report, the IMF already came out he tries to prepare that is
to say to the outlying societies of the area euro: Greece, Portugal, Spain, and
Italy to continue being poor of solemnity. It was avoided this way to have to
give explanations to the losses of the International Monetary Fund that it is
demonstrated that it is not good for anything and that it will be substituted
by the Bank of Investments Asian position in go on for China and to the one
that they leave adding many western economies.
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