viernes, 24 de abril de 2015

GREECE IS NOT LEHMAN BROTHERS, NOW IT IS A VERY DANGEROUS POLITICAL PROBLEM



As Bloomberg indicates mentioning to near sources with the conversations, the minister of Finances of the area euro have been developed quite not well included he has ended up tossing in face to its Hellenic partner that the form in which is driving the negotiations is "irresponsible" and that he is making them "lose the time", besides "player's" tillable and "fan", the thing has to have gone very seriously and very bad because it is not habit to be this way among colleagues minister of economy. 

Such it has been the attack, in accordance with the mentioned sources that the Government's Greek present representatives in the Euro group, have complained for the hostile" "atmosphere that has dominated the atmosphere during the encounter. In fact, the critics have not been directed alone toward Varoufakis. "If you continue to the means, in the last days what you listen an and another time is that 'Tsipras says' and 'Tsipras thinks', for what seems that the question has moved at the level of the own leaders", the Austrian minister of Finances, Hans Joerg Schelling, it has demanded "very urgently" Greece that they contribute a solution. 

The president of the Euro group, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, to the being asked for if the minister had attacked Varoufakis during the meeting of Riga for the lack of progresses in the negotiations he has responded: I will be quite frank, it has been a very critical discussion. We hoped to listen positive results and an agreement on the one that to decide, and we are still very far from that. So yes, it was a very critical discussion and there was a great sensation of urgency in the room. On the other hand, the Spanish minister of Economy, Luis of Guindos, echo of the "frustration" has been made that the negotiating tactics of the new Hellenic Government of Syriza have caused in the institutions of the troika and he has said that during the meeting the minister have shown their "doubts", "uncertainties" and "sense of urgency."  

Varoufakis has answered to the critics that "if there is a form of making this more effective and less more difficult process, we are open to suggestions", but it has rejected of plane that returns to the old missions from the troika to Athens. "To what we will resist, not for dogmatic reasons but because we think that it doesn't work, it is the idea of returning to a process that failed so wretchedly in the past", he will say what has to say but the question is that the Greek government is prisoner of his electoral promises and of the reality of his economy and both are incompatible, this it is the question neither Greece can make anything" and the UE he should not make anything" because behind all there is already politics and very dangerous. 

After this exchange of accusations and disagree, the Euro group has been unable to agree how they could accelerate the negotiations and he has left it in hands of the troika, according to European sources. Neither has he noticed a new term to reach an agreement, although Guindos has mentioned the next meeting foreseen for May 11. After several months of disagree, the negotiations between Greece and the troika, formed by the European Commission (CE), the European Central Bank (BCE) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and baptized as 'group of Brussels', they have been intensified, but significant differences persist in some areas. 

Again, the president of the Euro group has claimed a complete list of reformations that they should receive a global" "approval, for what Greece should intensify and to accelerate the works to achieve the pact. This message has been supported by the rest of minister of Finances of the area euro, inside its "exasperation" for the lack of progresses in the negotiations. Another of the spokesmen of the rejection to the Greek demands, the German Wolfgang Schäuble, remembered that "the time is not infinite and that it is important to advance." 

It is evident that the situation is clear for all those implied European and the concern has already jumped the Atlantic Ocean. In the last times, it seems that the division of opinions already grows between USA and the Euro zona on the almost sure exit of Greece of the Euro zona and/or a Hellenic default, while the first ones continue noticing of the graveness of the matter the seconds they assure that the risks are controlled.  

Nevertheless for the USA the collapse of Lehman Brothers and their lessons help to understand this divergence. Gillian analyzes this way it “Tett”, columnist of the daily Financial Times. Tett recognizes that a part of he can come it directly from the fatigue that they cause the fruitless negotiations with Greece, and it is logical that it is looked for to rationalize one of the possible consequences of taking a hard position with the Hellenic country. But, of bottom, what more weight is the ghost of Lehman Brothers. What did the Americans of that episode learn? A very hard lesson: that a relatively small shock (Lehman was not of the biggest banks in USA) it can cause a reaction in chain and to inflict a damage a lot bigger than the one foreseen.  

But I believe that it happens them it is really that that “scalded cat of the cold water escapes" because the similarities in this case don't exist, between other things because Greece it is not a bank and Greece has not emitted "Subprime garbage" but simply debt which is known, counted and controlled by the BCE, it is evident that anybody will like it that it passes that that finally it will happen, but in my opinion it is better than pass and that it already happens, because otherwise if we will create a bigger problem, the loss of Faith in the economic system of the euro.  

The crash of Lehman Brothers caused a distrust generalized in the rest of entities. Not alone because they could have similar problems, but because it meant an inflection point as for the answer of the authorities, since it had been allowed to fall an entity. Their fall made change the paradigm totally, and of there the panic in the monetary markets and the credit crisis but thanks to that accident the normative ones bank they have changed and they don't seek to deceive us, the panic was because everybody had bought worthless mortgages and this represented that the assets of many banks were false, with that that the risk that passed them like to Lehman Brothers, really scared. 

Such and like he remembers today the FT, it was not the fall in yes of Lehman what untied the fear, the rejection went to the first bottom of bank rescue in the Congress, hardly a couple of days later, that made go a long way the panic. The political uncertainty has never liked to the markets. And of this it is now, you from the USA cannot understand it here in Europe, the Greek problem has stopped to be economic because this evaluated and controlled. It is now a political problem that can derive in the total disaster of the UE, but this cannot impede you if it is avoided the default and the exit of Greece of the euro because if this new political system implanted in Greece triumphs, then yes that the whole such European economy ended and as we know it now. 

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