SEPTEMBER BEGINNING OF THE I FINISH TRIMESTER OF THE YEAR AND DE THE GOVERNMENT'S FAILURE DE SPAIN

After one summer of playing to the rumors, the area euro confronts the last trimester of the year that was decisive to rule if its debt crisis, now in its third year, it was declared definitively and officially outside of control, and finally the euro area is recomposed, I have very undoubtedly this it will already be what will happen and it is in definitive what is getting ready among these months giving long to meetings commitments go and back they see the development of the events that they wait for us. 

The troika of inspectors of the UE/FMI/BCE returns to Athens at the beginning of September and it will conclude a report that inevitably left clear that Greece, it cannot complete the objectives of debt reduction fixed in its rescue agreement. That verdict that could not become public until October will leave to the area euro with a hard option: to give more margins to Greece or to allow it to fall, the Greek Government wants a two year-old extra term to carry out the savings that are demanded. Germany is not so sure. There is a clear thing if there is interest that Greece continues in the euro all this it had more than enough, therefore the reality is that they are dressing the monkey to toss it to the lions. 

The president of the European Commission, José Manuel Durao Barroso, he has said that at the beginning of month it will detail plans for a bank union of the area euro that would begin with transborder supervision. Once established, the bottom of rescue of the monetary block will be able to recapitalize banks directly, offering a new road for countries in difficulties, without they have to succumb to a complete sovereign rescue. It maneuvers and declarations of Muddy totally worthless because the Bundesbank has taken charge and another time of denying him this plan and like it is known "The hand that rocks the Euro it dominates the European" economy.  

Also The European Central Bank celebrates its monthly meeting. Having pointed out that a program will begin to buy government funds to reduce the costs of indebtedness of Spain and Italy, you prevue that the president of the BCE, Mario Draghi, detail how he would make it, if receives a petition of help it sews that he has already received more than one. If he doesn't obtain that won't obtain it, a wide back for their plan and it is not able to develop it, the market markets that have been ascending before the expectation of a next performance of the BCE, will fall with rolling and unstoppable force. 

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, meets with the Spanish Government's president, Mariano Rajoy, in Madrid, and Spain will celebrate its first auction of funds from principle August it stops then, it is the most probable thing, with the I don't agree Greek the differential of the debt is in the 650 basic or more points again, with what the auction will suppose to have to pay more than 7% of interests or otherwise to give the country to the community authorities for its liquidation for crash. 

Among point they are foreseen meetings of those responsible for the central banks of the world that meet in the International Bank of Payments in Basle, Switzerland. Between the 9 and the 10, it has not transcended, but this meeting has the exclusive calendar of how to face the exit of some countries of the euro, I believe that definitively he didn't think about the disappearance of the same one, this I believe that it is already resolved, Germany and its court of Nordic countries and possibly France, they will assume its maintenance, the problem is that they won't want to assume the debts that were hung by the expelled countries that they are like we know nominated in Eurus.   

So the work of those responsible for the central banks, they will have the mission of summing up the foreign currencies of the countries that abandoned the euro and their relationship of change, so that the debt of each country, be restructured and valued according to the resulting parities of their foreign currencies on the euro and the dollar 

Almost when concluding these meetings, the Constitutional Tribunal of Germany will emit its failure on the demands presented on the bottom of rescue of the area euro MEDE. The legal process, it has retarded the entrance in vigor of the instrument because Berlin is not able to or he doesn't want to ratify it, until the tribunal is pronounced. The resolution that there will be is probable that it blocks the setting in march of the bottom, even entertaining more the solutions that will already be expecting the countries without possibilities from self-financing, but with everything and with that, he could request a bigger political supervision of its activities with that that not very more or less serious as requesting the reunification of the euro area in a great Germany.  

At the same time they take place elections in Holland. With the polls pointing to a growing disaffection toward austerity and the well located socialist party, it is possible that a coalition of parties leaves Germany without one of its key allies and hurry that it rejects any additional rescue of countries of the area euro, this is not an absurdity although it seems him, to Germany he doesn't worry about the small countries and with enough GDP like so that they are self-sufficient, very on the contrary he will find well, he knows that but it takes or earlier they will fall in its nets, to Germany what he worries about is Spain, Italy and France, nations that united they could impose other economic courses that evidently, they would return her to its state of one more in the club and that without a doubt they would impose him strong sanctions, to avoid its industrial and economic monopoly now of which makes Gallic. 

By the middle of September, Spain will give the audit of their bank sector that will determine how much it will use of those up to 100.000 million offered Eurus of bank rescue, and how much he needs each bank. Responsible for the UE they have suggested that some banks could need to be liquidated. And I will tell them more, in view of the results the most probable thing is that rescue some is not granted, because the big ones and the healthy ones, will be able to support the stake and Germany won't want to maintain but banks in a country in that they have more than enough almost all, the recession of our economy doesn't allow to maintain neither to those most cleaned up ones that now they are it, because they depend on strange economies. 

To first of October they began to close the decisions prepared in September there will be a Meeting of minister of Finances of the area euro, the Euro group, in Luxemburg. Foregone it will be the forum where you discusses the report of the troika it has more than enough Greece and the studies of the central banks, with everything they already got ready it the definitive performance plans. October 14 will already give it Begins the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Tokyo. Who analyzed the consequences of the plans of the euro, to already make definitive decisions? 

Finally the days October 18y19 will have bosses' of State Summit and of Government of the UE in Brussels that could already give officialdom and to consolidate the position of the block has more than enough Greece, Spain, and Italy. If I don't make a mistake we are alone to two months of finishing with a dream that alone Spain stops has lasted 30 years, almost as the dictatorship, it is clear that we don't know how to govern ourselves or just the opposite, we don't worry of who govern us.