THE EUROPEAN UNION FIGHTS TO DEATH WITH THE UNITED EUROPE

The situation in the European continent is of the most picturesque thing that to imagine can, it is a situation that perfectly could denominate of Kafkiana where the same interests, fight against the same interests, where the same governments face the same governments, the north faces with the south, the east with the west, the central banks against the commercial banks, the right with the left, and everything continues equally, it is as the game of throwing of the rope, that that they catch two groups one to each one of the ends of the rope and in the center a handkerchief is hung, both groups throw toward its side but it is such the balance that the handkerchief remains immobile in the same place, he doesn't go neither toward a side neither toward the other one. This is the situation in which is the economy and the government's action of the Europa of the euro.   

On Friday, 26 of the countries of the UE signed a plan that will impose political of austerity contractive in the whole continent. At the same time, the president of the BCE, Mario Draghi, explained clearly that the central bank won't use its balance to make lower the types of interest of the sovereign debt. And even so, almost everybody and mainly in USA that they have followed these decisions with interest, they have assumed simply that it would happen the opposite. The Europe of the euro, won't really arrive until the end in its plan to impose the austerity, and the BCE, in opinion of many, it will end up to jump to the rotation and to rescue Europe of the disaster. Why so much people do it assume the promises of the last week of fiscal and monetary austerity if they won't be completed? 

The explanation is simple from inside the union and from it was a lot but, leave clearly that in the European Union there are too much politics and too much Europe to still unite to these heights of the movie, at the 72 hours of the agreements announced to drummer and plate, it has already been begun the war between the European Commission and the governments from Germany and France that now represent the other European Union. 

If they don't laugh, now we have two unions at the old European Union with all their bureaucratized structure, and their systems impossible to move with the urgency that the economy and the politics need, and the Europe Together to blow of we call him I decree of force on the part of the axis Paris Berlin, but it doesn't finish the thing here, in each one of the unions several more unions coexist that each one contradicts to the other one, for evidently political interests, I refer to the confederations of parties and political of right and of lefts that each one sees their europa and their solution, so if I don't make a mistake in the European union, story like minimum 8 European unions. 

This is they have read this way already it in press notes in France you combats against Sarkozy in Germany against Merkel, in Italy against Monti in Spain is not known even but soon it will be known, England this also almost departure in three, and it adds and it continues, for that reason it is not of missing that so many difficulties on the part of the European leaders of adopting the ideology of the expansionary" "austerity as a legal requirement, it has still been received with a reaction stranger than in USA, and in the rest of the financial world. 

In USA, and especially in Wall Street, there is a strong consent regarding that if the BCE doesn't begin to act as the Fed 2009 buying sovereign debt, the crisis won't have final. We assume that the BCE is the sufficiently intelligent thing to be made this idea, and to know that if the area euro is broken under the pressure, it would mean the end of the euro and of the BCE, and of the European union forever, or rather until after the European, or world III Guerra, you go that is the one that would arm in these circumstances. 

Therefore, although we assume that the leaders of the BCE are committed with the ideology of the expansionary austerity, we hope in some moment they abandon this ideology to save their ass. At the end, we suppose that they have a strong incentive for not allowing that Europe self-destroys. The problem is in that if this arrives we will have a third European union then we count: a the European Union, two the Europe of the Euro, three the Europe of the BCE, and if he reproduces in each one of them the divisions of rigor we already leave to 12 groups with the same purpose and end to save their European Union. Among so much the handkerchief of the rope that he explained at the beginning will continue being immovable in the same place. 

Paul Krugman explained yesterday this thought line: It is "really very prominent as a lot of informed people it bases their analyses on the presumption that the BCE will make what has to make". Barry Eichengreen that is an authentic expert in the euro, its analysis of forecasts begins for 2012 with the confident statement that "the BCE will come to the rescue" but they make a mistake this it is what they want, because they need it its economies based on making the more and bigger ball.  

But what they have to understand the Anglo-Saxon economists is that the Germans and the BCE don't share the same vision of the world; they really believe that the austerity is everything that it is necessary, and that the necessity of an expansible monetary politics is incompatible, with its other ideas the world works on how. And everything indicates that they will maintain that belief although the euro collapses an event that, in opinion of Krugman, it will be caused by the irresponsibility of the debtors. "Given an election between to save Europe and to maintain their convictions, they will choose the second", it concludes the prize Nobel. It is the same thing but on the contrary that the Europeans will decide, among our economic politics and the one that they want to impose us that the world collapses.  

We start up the week with more questions than answers. The European summit finished with this result something unexpected of reinforcing the political union under the control of Germany and thanks to the auto exclusion of London. He can that it is positive in the political land, but they are ambiguities in the economic one: we have fiscal agreement, but we don't know when neither how it will work. We have mechanisms of stability, but we don't know if they will have the resources to pacify the cousins of risk. And we have to a satisfied central bank of the results of the summit, but still not very inclined to assume moneylenders of last resource paper that is to say outside of what fits in their command, outside of the bank sector. 

In summary: is the recession risk increased and does it move away the path of the growth, unless like he requested yesterday that between approval of new treaties and modifications one works at the same time and without pause, in reactivation measures, once elect the financial economic road, is to average that of the productive economy that the one that has to contribute the new resources is so that the first one works, otherwise alone we will be able to administer misery every time but When and how will Germany orchestrate a strategy of growth? How can the Bundesbank react to the European agreement? What signs does Draghi wait to rotate toward a more aggressive strategy of support to the sovereign funds? They are crucial questions for all the economies of the world, included the Europeans.