WE HAVE THE SWORD DE DEMOCLES LOLLING ON OUR HEADS

The general impression is finally that the area euro will allow Greece to fall, they point out community sources in Brussels. The orientation change is due to the apparent stability of Italy that with Mario's Government Monti has mitigated the infection risk. The enormous injection of liquidity to last years that the European Central Bank has carried out in the financial sector, (half trillion Eurus in December and another trillion, according to the estimates, at the end of this month) with the hope of mitigating the crisis of the public debt.   

Spain doesn't share that turn and the minister of Economy, Luis of Guindos, he noticed last week about the infection risk if a crash in controlled takes place in Greece. The European commissary of Economic Matters, Olli Rehn, also alerted yesterday on "the devastating consequences" of a crash for the Greek population and the dangerous "ramifications" for the rest of countries. 

I understand the fear from Spain to the change of strategy of Europe and I will explain to them the reason of both postures, they will finally see Europe bill it has been given that Greece breaks all the parameters of status of European country, the first one is the mentality of its own society, another is its nonexistent industrial fabric, in the moment that europa forces to reduce public officials, and to privatize companies screens personnel reporters to offer grants disguised of wages, Greece won't be been able to sustain, and the unemployment figures the revolts and the wild strikes will be tremendous, this not forced to the euro area to rescue the Greek debt, but to maintain it and to enlarge it off for life. 

To Spain he already scares him this truth outlined in the high political spheres in the euro area, because surprisingly we are the second country with the same problem, Spain is completely in these moments unviable, economically speaking, and if he stays in foot it is because there is another country behind that it maintains alive the performance of rescues and bar free of the BCE. If Europa decides to abandon Greece and the economic politics, the second redraws in falling we are us, and the reason is a very simple and simple one, our country he doesn't have industrial and productive capacity to compete in costs and GDP of value euro with the rest of the Union. So arrived to this point the economic outlines politician of the area euro, they would see each other in the same tessitura that up to now have with Greece, there would not be another exit that to subsidize permanently to our country to maintain it inside the euro.    

But I fear myself that the European partners' good part, and Germany in particular, they seem now convinced of being able to negotiate the fatal outcome. And, mainly, they begin to consider it unavoidable after the failure of the first rescue (in the one that 73.000 million Eurus have been paid, 5.898 contributed by Spain) and the probable uselessness of the second (130.000 million Eurus, approval slopes). We cannot continue tossing money in a bottomless" well, he noticed on Sunday the German minister of Finances, Wolfgang Schäuble.   

The distrust has not even vanished after last Sunday night the Greek Parliament approves the adjustment demanded by the UE and the IMF while dozens of thousands of Greeks protested in the exterior, with the most vehement assaulting trade and fastening fire to almost half hundred of buildings. The popular mobilization and the flames in the center of Athens have not impressed Berlin. Rather on the contrary, this attitude and fierceness demonstrates the incomprehension of the Greek society and its inability to be European. The German Government was limited yesterday to remember that the one seen well from the Parliament to the general plan it is alone a first step and he waits the approval of the concrete measures to carry out an adjustment of 3.300 million Eurus. In definitive we are in the phase of giving him you release to the matter while we prepare the unavoidable end of Greece like member of full right of the euro group. 

Once the process begins the European economy it will demand the same measures to apply to the context of the area euro and this it is the problem that you go De Guindos and it has already valued now Spain he holds back because he has relatively little debt and I eat the problem now it is the debt the eyes of the responsible Europeans they are observing this aspect for that reason in the economies of the area Italy in these moments it seems a step from behind of Spain because he looks at himself the factor debt, if europa decides to abandon Greece it will be partly because he will be able to breathe calm in the sense that Italy will be able to become responsible for its sovereign debt, and it will be exactly this way the measures of austerity and cutting of Mario Monti they will produce the wanted effect because Italy if he has a production capacity that will maintain the GDP and it reduced the debt when entering in the state arks the same thing and to spend less. 

We return then to our country the europa eyes they will become toward us and they will realize that we will already be in 25% unemployment what means a direct cost from about 70.000 million Eurus to year they will do some indebted banks until the eyes with the BCE and overwhelmed with some more than uncertain credits that they will go reassuring year to year with what there won't be possibility to give financing to the reindustrialization of Spain because I have repeated it many times although europa is reactivated Spain he won't make it because it is not him to have stopped companies or to half speed it is that he doesn't have companies he has to create them and it stops that it is necessary an economic politics that or they subsidize it to us or from the public treasure it cannot be made. 

The government from Spain should act much more with determination and internationally he should give absolute competition freedom and competitiveness to the autonomies if he passes the time in governing politically and economically from and for the centralization of resources and his later allotment goes it is necessary to be impossible to get up according to that autonomy and it will be braked to the rest on the contrary this situation he behaved that it is stagnation it is total instead of partial the Spanish economy has to bet and very well where he will put to surrender the taxes of the Spaniards and he has to not make it from the point of view of the profitability of the politics of very praiseworthy but impossible justness of maintaining in the current circumstances. 

The unemployment today in Spain is already systemic and or it breaks this condition or Spain will break because the same as it passed with Greece Europa he won't want to continue putting Eurus to a bottomless well.