They return to
the present time with more and more force the sovereign debts, and it is an
unavoidable fact because it is without a doubt some the base of a problem that
seems irresoluble for the situation of the change of the world economy, fundamentally
that of production versus to the financial and speculative economy. It is
evident that the productive economy has moved basically to the countries of the
Asian east and the United States, and that in europa or the UE, like want to
denominate it, it has been alone the with an economy based on numbers but not
in things.
This causes
that most of European states are in recession, if you want we can soften it and
to denominate technical recession, but this is to conform to and to lengthen
the end that won't be other that the restructuring of the debts or the
restructuring of the productive economy that he allows to obtain real revenues
to be able to pay all the debts, but this is a problem in the UE of difficult
solution, because the UE in turn has monopolized its industrial and productive
potential in a single country, Germany, with what we would be that if you re equilibrate the industrialization of europa,
the first one that will suffer a fall of its economy would be Germany.
The Financial
Times, defended this Monday the politicians of restructuring of the public and
private debt that are promoted from the European periphery by the parties of
the extreme left. That they are the only formations that at the moment are
outlining this sensible and necessary it debates they are already radical
options as we Can in Spain, Syriza in Greece or the Movement 5 Stars in Italy,
but at least it celebrates that finally leaders with real options of reaching
the power, claim the relentless renegotiation of the conditions of our
debt.
Immediately
before this current the president of the Bundesbank, Jens left Weidmann to
counteract this tendency, at the moment politics that is advancing for the
periphery of the UE. According to German, the debt public Spaniard is perfectly
redeemable and, in consequence, there is no reason some so that it is
restructured in these moments. Possibly similar decision would expel us of the
financial markets and he would force us to finance our budgetary imbalances to
much higher types of interest that the current ones, for what the unpaid one
should only be adopted as politics of last resource.
Indeed, the
Spanish public debt is already located around 100 percent, what goes
complicating its refund increasingly. But the current levels are not irreversible
for the high volume of passive that accumulates, what really meets us on the
edge of the insolvency is the towering public deficit that we continue
exhibiting and that nobody wants to clip. That is, the problem is not that we
owe 100 percent of the GDP, but rather after applying what many describe as
"unbearable and unbearable" cuttings, we still continue having one of
the most swollen public deficits in the world.
And this
situation is certain because for three years the PP that governs in Spain, what
is making is to get in debt to look of sustaining the deficit, that is to say
it is changing name the same problem that is not another that Spain is without
any productive fabric that allows him to obtain enough revenues, first to
reduce the deficit and then to reduce the debt. The truth is that I don't
understand how it is that in these moments the Spanish debt moves in the limits
of cost of 2% and I don't understand it because although the Spanish government
assures that he wants to pay the whole debt, the markets should realize that it
won't be they possible.
And exactly
this circumstance - that is that our problem is in the annual deficit and not
in the debt stock - it is the same one that returns useless any politics of
debt restructuring. Even when we played the biggest default in the humanity's
history and we opted for the unpaid of 50% of the obligations of the State, the
saving of interests would hardly ascend to 17.000 million Eurus: or what is the
same thing, our public deficit post default would continue being of between
45.000 and 50.000 million Eurus.
This maintains
Spain in a situation of extreme insecurity, because if the debt is
restructured, how to finance similar quantities exactly in the markets after
making a default. It would not be possible I save to leonine interests on the
part of some creditor that tried to take out party of our misfortune. That is
exactly what happened to Greece after the restructuring of debt of 2012: only
two years later, their public debt already overcomes the bench marks reached
before the default again.
I speak of
Spain but I fear myself that this is of course common to Italy to Greece and
the problem arrived soon in France, and this doesn't get ready if once and for
all for all Germany doesn't give to the global solution, that is to say the
individual debt of the countries of the UE should become the debt of the UE and
it should be the whole UE the one that finances it meeting, for separate they
don't doubt it, we will go falling in crash one after other all the countries
of the euro group.
And this
connects with the proposal of the plan Juncker of mobilizing 300.000 million
Eurus in investments directed to increase the industrialization of the euro
area, because to unify the European debt and to continue without taking place
more to sustain it would not serve as anything, their idea believes that it is
very possible but I don't see at the moment as it will carry out it, because I
don't know if there is a structure in the UE that can make this work, just as I
see it he would have to have a commission that is devoted to pick up ideas of
new products that come from the European private sector, as well as to study
projects of novel character as much in technology as in services of diverse
nature, and I eat Juncker it seeks to finance the beginning and to leave him to
flow private capital that now this simply put in funds because he doesn't know
what to make neither where to invest it.
The idea is
the only exit for the economy euro, don't doubt it, it is necessary to move
europa like be or he will die alone, or what is worse at the end the European
society gorged and it jumped against the inoperative and useless governments
that have brought us until here, like he said before there are already clearly
new political ideas that are having an acceptance in the society of the
impoverished countries in the UE and east is the other road, or reactivation or
revolution, gentlemen of the UE and of Germany you have the word.
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