He begins to settle in the economic means and already
also in the politicians that a new era has begun. "The cheap"
petroleum, the energy that moves the world, accumulates some falls of 30% since
it began 2014, and the forecasts point to that correction of the prices is it
can continue.
The 'fracking' of USA it has converted to the first
power of the world, also in the first producing of 'I pray black'. With these
antecedents China has put on immediately also hands to the work to increase its
production and to reduce the imports. Among so much other countries debate in
their parliaments the possibility to be introduced in this world of the
hydraulic fracture.
Inside this context of abundance of petroleum and low
prices, some changes are already evident; it assures the financial portal
Bloomberg. This energy independence of USA allows West to impose sanctions to
Iran without fear to what can pass with the petroleum and gas taken place in
the Asian country, this makes him to facilitate that march Germany behind and
it could be added since to the revolution of the Fracking it suffers in its
meats the blackmail of the Russian gas.
Meanwhile Russia that pointed like one of the most
promising emergent powers, goes as their future he disappears among the strong
falls of the revenues, derived of the abrupt reduction of benefits of the oil
industry of the country, and for the sanctions imposed soon after the conflict
with Ukraine although I would say that a thing is that is to say consequence of
the other one the Ukrainian problem it is to my way of seeing a curtain of
smoke so that the Russian government can deceive as always to his town he has
made, loading the blames from his errors to the western demons.
"A new era of low prices is settling down thanks
to the revolution of the 'shale gas' and of the 'shale oil' ", Ed assures
Morse, director of first matters in Cotigroup, "undoubtedly the
geopolitical changes will be momentous" and so much that they will be it
because not alone it is the petroleum or the gas what is in movement it is
necessary to have the use every time bigger than clean energies the renewable
ones "eolic and solar energy" that they make a slope effect in the
use or the necessity of fossil energies as the gas or the petroleum what also
throws the prices down.
The abrupt falls in the price of the petroleum have
almost always caused geopolitical movements of importance. In the second half
of the years 80 the fall of the price of the 'I pray black' it was fundamental
so that begins the process of disintegration of the Union Soviet, great part of
their revenues they vanished, and today they are going by the same experience
of there I maintain that their threatening movements don't have consistency
they are not sustained from the geopolitical point if Russia loses the power of
the petroleum he doesn't have left anything him to interest to the world of their
my opinion that Russia should come closer to europa and to become a country
without fears and to forget the II world war and its past of misery of the
imperial time of the Zars once and for all.
In 1990, Saddam Hussein decided to invade Kuwait. The
old Iraqi leader's movement unchained the first Guerra of the Gulf. Hussein
made his decision during an aggressive fall of the prices of the petroleum.
Their decision could have as objective to increase its production to compensate
the fall of the margins. And it is that the petroleum is the matter it prevails
more important at geopolitical level, up to now it has been evident that the 'I
pray black' it has taken the helm of the economies in the world" and this
many governments and countries are seeing it fall.
The forecasts of some experts assure that the
correction of the price of the petroleum can continue. Leonardo Maugeri, old
executive director of the oil Eni SpA, now professor in Harvard, believes that
the most probable thing is that we enter in a cycle of 4 or 5 years in which
the price of the petroleum oscillates between the 65 and the 80 dollars for
barrel, and the magnitude of this new one 'it was of the cheap petroleum' it
can be enlarged if the prohibition rises in USA to export this matter it
prevails, an option that Citibank goes as very possible to half term. USA has
gotten the energy independence thanks to the 'fracking', an industry that
continues growing and that it can begin to export when the law allows it.
China will be another of the important actors inside
the energy panorama. According to the Administration of Energy Information of
USA, the Asian country has the biggest reservations of 'shale gas' of the world
and the third bigger in that than he refers to 'shale oil'. Little by little
the national companies and foreigners go beginning to exploit these resources.
The main inconvenience for the development of this industry is the high initial
investment that is required so that it begins to work the 'fracking' and this
is what has made that the current petroleum the classic gets so spectacularly
in the bottom off what is it is that it is not profitable to open up to the
Fracking.
And it is here in this point where my enunciated Spain
enters losing the train another time is it already resonates still that if it
perforates in the costs Canarias or not the Constitutional Tribunal of course
for the government's indication the laws of some communities like the Catalan
that he wants to make prospecting’s and to apply the fracking has suspended and
as always it is clear that it prefixes its immobility before the initiative of
their own regions again. It is evident that Catalonia should reduce its costs
because it is a very active community but it is not able to balance its
commercial scale it cares more than it exports and certainly to have petroleum
and gas at home would be important.
But it is not single Catalonia it is that this is a
technological revolution that is changing the world that can make to fall whole
economies and to get up other and as always here in our country politicians is
not wet because its solutions are, simply the Constitutional Tribunal, when
they decide we will arrive late and bad because it will no longer be
worthwhile, we will have lost the occasion of experiencing a new technology and
of knowing if with luck we become in self-sufficient or because not in
exporters.
And arrived to this point I want to remind to the
politicians from Madrid that we have more than six millions of having really stopped.
I would say that he would be necessary to go to all and to for everything or at
least he looks like each other this way it.
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