WE NEED "ACTORS" AND NON FORTUNE-TELLERS

That good work that of analyst of the IMF or of any official institution or not, dedicated to the analyses of the economy, they should be very well rewarded and their work consists on dictating the warnings that he/she gives them the desire, that yes with a sentence tone as that that our parents told us. “I already told it to you” if they guessed right, and if it didn't happen anything of that noticed with not telling anything everything solved so they are always right. 

I don't like to speak of Spain in these times, because I sit down as that I speak for anything, since we are in the limbo or maybe in the purgatory who knows, the certain thing is that now not you to the one who to go and that bothers me sovereignty, but like he has entered the IMF with our country, at least I believe that it is worthwhile to analyze their warnings and I will try to advance in their terms to see of seeing their application context. 

They say those of the IMF that after two years of recession (in the 2009 and the 2010) the Spanish economy will remain stagnated in the 2011 and the 2012, the organism maintains its forecast of growth for Spain for the 2011 (0,8%, tenth five below the Government's official forecast, del1,3%) and it reduces to 1,1% its forecast for the 2012. Good to me to understand they are short, the stagnation (growths below 1%) of the Spanish economy, it lasted at least but of three years up to 2015 as minimum and if the international context accompanies, and it didn't recover growths above 1,5% until the second legislature of the PP.  

Spain needs imperatively to reduce its real estate globe, so that it is restarted the flow of necessary credit again to create companies and production, and this won't happen rather on the contrary in the whole next legislature the delinquency of the Spanish banks in Spain it will still ascend in the next two years. 

According to the IMF, the unemployment rate will be located in Spain in the active population's 20,7% in the 2011 and in 19,7% in the 2012. They constitute the highest rates in all the analyzed countries, I also regret to be more negative than the IMF, the unemployment rate in Spain won't never decrease below 19%, if alone the creation of physical work positions is contemplated, because the rate of unemployment of Spain is consequence of two unfortunate factors and incorrigible at the same time, this factors have been the limitless real estate construction, and the massive entrance of immigrant workers to complete quickly unusual the hit before it exploited the bubble. 

At the end he has stayed a delinquency and a structural unemployment very difficult of solving. The first problem is question of time like I have already mentioned, the second is impossible to solve and they will see for that, in the last ten years Spain grew demographically not above its natural capacity to base of births, if non immigration for a single end the construction, but this construction was not necessary but rather it was a total speculation, for that that never more he will repeat, so never more one will be able to reutilized the manpower that at the end this action accent without work in our country. 

Now it is calculated that we will arrive almost to 21% of stopped, he says it until the IMF and me I subscribe him, this is little but of 5.000.000 of stopped to arrive to a high but acceptable considered figure, we should keep 2.000.000 of unemployed, this means that it is necessary to create 3.000.000 of work positions it sews completely impossible, because I repeat our unemployment it is not based on an industry that has lowered their production for the crisis and with the time it recovered it, it is not this the case, it is that the industry that I need this enormous number of stopped, it has disappeared forever. 

Regarding the reduction of the public deficit, the IMF considers that "Spain is in the good road to fulfill the fixed objective of 6% at the end of this year". TO half term, however, they will "have to take additional measures to reduce the deficit around 3% in the 2013", the same thing that prescribes for France. It is not this way, Spain no matter how much he insists and become poor, it won't get it, to balance the public deficit, to Spain he has more than enough public and it is not a joke.  

Spain cannot almost sustain those 48.000.000 million inhabitants that we have declared in the census of 2010, there is not industrialization capacity, neither of economic infrastructure to maintain a lot of population, I sit down it but it is that hard and painful to have to say it, the necessities of population as for sanity, social security, pensions, unemployment, etc. is already in assumable for the economy of for if precarious of Spain, see these data: In the decade of the 80/90 Spain it grew 1.700.000 inhabitants, in the following one 90/2000 grew 1.683.000 inhabitants and in the last decade 6.000.000 of inhabitants something step that unbalances the whole Spanish economy, now Spain should have 42 million inhabitants and he/she almost has 48.000.000 

This is a topic that nobody studies, but it is the problem number one of the country, we will never be able to create the work positions that population requires, for its enormous disproportion and because more and more the companies occupy to less manpower for its tecnificación. For not wanting to write on Spain, I believe that I have already said too much, but that they go taking note the candidates at the 20N, this it is the main problem with which you/they will be and I warn them like he  makes the IMF, these more than five millions all will be, very but that very indignant that know it.