lunes, 2 de marzo de 2015

THE SOUTH" "EURO CANNOT CONTINUE TO THE EURO AREA AT THE END IT WILL SINK IT




There is no way to rectify the tendency of positive recovery in the south of the euro area on one hand today the debt purchase it begins on the part of the BCE but to who as always this action benefits it is to the rich euro zona I would say that it is better this that anything but the truth is that the debt that the BCE buys is alone 20% because 80 % remaining has so to buy it the own country through its central bank the countries with stupendous positive economies they buy them 20% of its debt, but the unbalanced countries load them 80% of their debts because they should continue getting in debt clear this. 

But today I won't impact it is the debt but in the economic reactivation that doesn't go back but rather I would say that he stiller falls in the zonal imbalance the indicator that demonstrates us this circumstance it is the labor market. The unemployment has begun the year with slight improvements, in the area euro, it has lowered a tenth, until 11,2%, what represents the lowest rate from April of 2012, while Spain has gone back tenth two, until 23,4%, according to Eurostat. In the group of the European Union, a tenth have descended in the European Union (UE), until 9,8%. 

Here already one can see that the euro doesn't help anything to the employment the difference of the unemployment between the euro area and the UE to the complete one, this improvement in a lot to the other one. In terms inter annuals, the unemployment lowered tenth six in the euro zona in comparison with January of 2014 and tenth eight in the group of the UE in the same period. On the whole, it has lowered in 24 countries of the group of the Union, it has remained stable in Belgium and it has grown in Cyprus, Finland and France. In Spain, the unemployment rate decreased tenth two in January in front of December, until 23,4%, and 2,1 percentage points if it is compared with the same date of 2014, the biggest setbacks, apart from in Spain, they have taken place in Estonia (from 8,5% to 6,4%) and Ireland (from 12,1% to 10%). 

On the other hand, in January of 2015 there were 4,8 millions of young smaller than 25 years in unemployment in the UE, of those that 3,28 million were in the euro zona. It is equal it to a rate of unemployment of 21,2% in the UE and of 22,9% in the area of the euro in January, in front of 23,3% and 24,3%, respectively, of an exercise before. In terms inter year, the juvenile unemployment lowered in 562.000 people in the Twenty-eight and in 259.000 in the Nineteen of the area of the common currency. In past January, the lowest rates of juvenile unemployment registered in Germany (7,1%), Austria (8,2%) and in Denmark (10,8%), and the highest in Spain (50,9%), Greece (50,6% in November), Croatia (44,1% in the fourth trimester) and in Italy (41,2%). there is no way to hide it the euro it doesn't promote employments. 

And clear this situation is in the south and in Spain where clearer you leave, and this takes to that besides the difficulty of creating employments those that exist are devaluated more and more because it is necessary to toss hand of the few ones that they work and they get paid, to obtain social revenues, pension, etc. here each one of the 12,6 million workers inscribed in the general régime of the Social security, is expected that in 2015 he will pay 6.199 Eurus in social rates. It indicates this way it the budget of the system that anticipate a base of half rate of 1.802 Eurus to the month that they are translated in a contribution of 516 Eurus a month (28,3% of their wage) for each busy one. 

According to Employment, thanks to the contributions of the busy workers of the general régime, the system will enter 78.506 million Eurus, what will suppose the highest figure from the exercise 2008. The difference will be that the 78.506 million of 2015 will contribute them 12, 66 millions of affiliated while the 78.919 of 2008 were distributed among 14, 92 million cotenants. 

In this scenario, the "merit" of those responsible for the Social security is in having recovered the levels of revenues of before the crisis, but with 2,26 million less cotenants. How have they gotten it? Because in the first place, reducing the allowances to the recruiting, mainly to the one that is not indefinite. Now, the system "loses" less funds in helps than before the crisis when almost any contract bore some deduction. Also, the obligation of quoting for the checks of food and other benefits have also fattened the revenues everything measured that they reduce the labor revenues. 

And finally, by means of the acquaintance as silent reformation of the Social security, through which the maximum pension is limited while he doesn't stop to go up the maximum base of rate. In 2015, a worker of the general régime can quote as maximum 3.606 Eurus a month while, if he retires, his maximum pension would be of 2.560 Eurus. This breach is known like silent reformation of the pensions. In spite of the recovery of the revenues for rates of the Social security, the certain thing is that the ascent is insufficient to confront the expense in pensions. In 2015, the system incurs in deficit again, in spite of the carried out reformations. 

The alone things go bad in Spain in Greece naturally go worse. Greece will be unable to make in front of its financial obligations during next four months without external financing, according to sources of the Greek Ministry of Finances. According to those same sources, the fiscal deficit of the country has been shot until the 5.000 million more pessimistic Eurus-estimates they calculate it in 7.000 millions -, instead of the 2.500 million Eurus that it was foreseen before the elections of last January. And what is more serious: until the month of June, this breach can arrive to the 11.000 million. 

At the same time, the Hellenic Government's economic team also faces the problem of the inadequacy of the revenues: alone in the month of January of this year, a deficit of 1.000 million Eurus has been created, due to the collapse of the tributary revenues in 23%. The forecasts for the month of February are also particularly somber, in the same way that for next months. As much March as April will be months full with financial obligations for Greece. The State will have to pay interests, letters of the Treasure and also five quotas of the loans granted by the International Monetary Fund. 

The euro area doesn't work they can already say what the economic specialists from Brussels of the BCE want and of the IMF this doesn't go and always for the same thing the real imbalance of the economies an unquestionable fact and that it is not today question but rather this fact comes from a distance of more than 30ª years ago and that then it was no longer wanted to see, he/she simply decided to finance it, but not in fixing it compensating industrial structures, but simply thinking that never more there would be an economic crisis that dreamer themselves was creating it  
 

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