There is no way to
rectify the tendency of positive recovery in the south of the euro area on one
hand today the debt purchase it begins on the part of the BCE but to who as
always this action benefits it is to the rich euro zona I would say that it is
better this that anything but the truth is that the debt that the BCE buys is
alone 20% because 80 % remaining has so to buy it the own country through its
central bank the countries with stupendous positive economies they buy them 20%
of its debt, but the unbalanced countries load them 80% of their debts because
they should continue getting in debt clear this.
But today I won't
impact it is the debt but in the economic reactivation that doesn't go back but
rather I would say that he stiller falls in the zonal imbalance the indicator
that demonstrates us this circumstance it is the labor market. The unemployment
has begun the year with slight improvements, in the area euro, it has lowered a
tenth, until 11,2%, what represents the lowest rate from April of 2012, while
Spain has gone back tenth two, until 23,4%, according to Eurostat. In the group
of the European Union, a tenth have descended in the European Union (UE), until
9,8%.
Here already one
can see that the euro doesn't help anything to the employment the difference of
the unemployment between the euro area and the UE to the complete one, this
improvement in a lot to the other one. In terms inter annuals, the unemployment
lowered tenth six in the euro zona in comparison with January of 2014 and tenth
eight in the group of the UE in the same period. On the whole, it has lowered
in 24 countries of the group of the Union, it has remained stable in Belgium
and it has grown in Cyprus, Finland and France. In Spain, the unemployment rate
decreased tenth two in January in front of December, until 23,4%, and 2,1
percentage points if it is compared with the same date of 2014, the biggest
setbacks, apart from in Spain, they have taken place in Estonia (from 8,5% to
6,4%) and Ireland (from 12,1% to 10%).
On the other hand,
in January of 2015 there were 4,8 millions of young smaller than 25 years in
unemployment in the UE, of those that 3,28 million were in the euro zona. It is
equal it to a rate of unemployment of 21,2% in the UE and of 22,9% in the area
of the euro in January, in front of 23,3% and 24,3%, respectively, of an
exercise before. In terms inter year, the juvenile unemployment lowered in
562.000 people in the Twenty-eight and in 259.000 in the Nineteen of the area
of the common currency. In past January, the lowest rates of juvenile
unemployment registered in Germany (7,1%), Austria (8,2%) and in Denmark
(10,8%), and the highest in Spain (50,9%), Greece (50,6% in November), Croatia
(44,1% in the fourth trimester) and in Italy (41,2%). there is no way to hide
it the euro it doesn't promote employments.
And clear this
situation is in the south and in Spain where clearer you leave, and this takes
to that besides the difficulty of creating employments those that exist are
devaluated more and more because it is necessary to toss hand of the few ones
that they work and they get paid, to obtain social revenues, pension, etc. here
each one of the 12,6 million workers inscribed in the general régime of the
Social security, is expected that in 2015 he will pay 6.199 Eurus in social
rates. It indicates this way it the budget of the system that anticipate a base
of half rate of 1.802 Eurus to the month that they are translated in a
contribution of 516 Eurus a month (28,3% of their wage) for each busy one.
According to
Employment, thanks to the contributions of the busy workers of the general
régime, the system will enter 78.506 million Eurus, what will suppose the
highest figure from the exercise 2008. The difference will be that the 78.506 million
of 2015 will contribute them 12, 66 millions of affiliated while the 78.919 of
2008 were distributed among 14, 92 million cotenants.
In this scenario,
the "merit" of those responsible for the Social security is in having
recovered the levels of revenues of before the crisis, but with 2,26 million
less cotenants. How have they gotten it? Because in the first place, reducing
the allowances to the recruiting, mainly to the one that is not indefinite.
Now, the system "loses" less funds in helps than before the crisis
when almost any contract bore some deduction. Also, the obligation of quoting
for the checks of food and other benefits have also fattened the revenues
everything measured that they reduce the labor revenues.
And finally, by
means of the acquaintance as silent reformation of the Social security, through
which the maximum pension is limited while he doesn't stop to go up the maximum
base of rate. In 2015, a worker of the general régime can quote as maximum
3.606 Eurus a month while, if he retires, his maximum pension would be of 2.560
Eurus. This breach is known like silent reformation of the pensions. In spite
of the recovery of the revenues for rates of the Social security, the certain
thing is that the ascent is insufficient to confront the expense in pensions.
In 2015, the system incurs in deficit again, in spite of the carried out
reformations.
The alone things
go bad in Spain in Greece naturally go worse. Greece will be unable to make in
front of its financial obligations during next four months without external
financing, according to sources of the Greek Ministry of Finances. According to
those same sources, the fiscal deficit of the country has been shot until the
5.000 million more pessimistic Eurus-estimates they calculate it in 7.000
millions -, instead of the 2.500 million Eurus that it was foreseen before the
elections of last January. And what is more serious: until the month of June,
this breach can arrive to the 11.000 million.
At the same time,
the Hellenic Government's economic team also faces the problem of the
inadequacy of the revenues: alone in the month of January of this year, a
deficit of 1.000 million Eurus has been created, due to the collapse of the
tributary revenues in 23%. The forecasts for the month of February are also
particularly somber, in the same way that for next months. As much March as
April will be months full with financial obligations for Greece. The State will
have to pay interests, letters of the Treasure and also five quotas of the
loans granted by the International Monetary Fund.
The euro area
doesn't work they can already say what the economic specialists from Brussels
of the BCE want and of the IMF this doesn't go and always for the same thing
the real imbalance of the economies an unquestionable fact and that it is not
today question but rather this fact comes from a distance of more than 30ª
years ago and that then it was no longer wanted to see, he/she simply decided to
finance it, but not in fixing it compensating industrial structures, but simply
thinking that never more there would be an economic crisis that dreamer
themselves was creating it
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