19 DAYS AND 19 NIGHTS OF SPECULATION HE HAS THE UE TO KNOW IF HE SURVIVES OR NOT

The euro zone continues playing to catch fire with Greek fire. Germany says that, contrary to 2011 and 2012, at the present time the region is the sufficiently strong thing as to support an exit of Greece of the euro. It is evident that partly he is right because Germany has already recovered more than 80% of its debt and in the bottom the Greek debt is not more than Eurus lent in its majority by the same German banks, that it is evident have already said it that they can leave the euro but that they will return until the last debt euro this a dangerous and impossible idea. 

The elections in Greece that will take place January 25, and they think about as a new referendum on the permanency of the country in the unique currency, I am not so sure of I believe it that they forget that together to the euro the permanency goes to the UE, because the Greeks won't be so silly of staying in an UE governed by the euro if they decide to leave it would be impossible to the country to overcome in this market. 

 This probably exaggerates the risks: the party of left Syriza that leads the polls, doesn't make campaign in favor of the exit and a majority of the Greek voters wants to remain in the euro. But a victory of Syriza that he wants that it relaxes himself the debt of Athens, he will give place to complicated negotiations with the rest of Europe. If those negotiations reach a dead point, the events could still conspire to take out Greece of the euro. 

There is no doubt that there are few signs of concern in the financial markets around this risk, as example we have that although the Hellenic funds you has collapsed, the profitability to ten years of Italy and Spain stays very below 2%; in the case of Portugal, it has gotten off 2,5%. The infection in a principle has not happened. But the descent of the yields responds to the perspective that the European Central Bank buys government funds of the euro zone, something that is much more probable in fact to avoid an exit of Greece. 

It seems that the situation of the euro zone is more solid than three years ago. Countries like Spain, Portugal and Ireland have intervened to approach their problems, and fire walls like the European Mechanism of Stability, the vehicle of rescue of the euro zone, they are already in vigor. The restructuring of the Greek debt in 2012 implies that an exit or an unpaid one don't suppose a threat for the European bank system; most of the Greek debt is at the present time in hands of governments of the euro zone and of the International Monetary Fund. 

But an exit of Greece would continue outlining important threats for the euro, mainly politicians more than economic the incognito one that the markets accept a new Greece outside of the euro and possibly of the UE to half term, the collapse of the UE that is to my way of seeing unavoidable could hurry unless the BCE absorbs and agglutinate all the European debts that is to say in an alone one that the BCE becomes the European FED.  

A fundamental principle of the BCE is that the euro is irreversible. The promise of the president of the BCE, Mario Draghi, of buying government funds, if ends up being necessary, through the program of Direct Monetary Operations it was based on the idea that the investors were afraid irrational on a collapse of the euro. An exit would destroy these foundations: he would sit down a precedent. If a country can leave, they can also make it other and friends in this are but it is necessary to remember that this that the euro is irreversible is words of Draghi it is not word of God neither of Merkel. 

And although the economic mark of the euro zone is more solid than before, it is not it the politician both they are not by no means complete. The political will has maintained until the moment the intact unique currency, but they are winning supports new parties that challenge the orthodoxy of the European politicians. The countries "have to be better inside of (of the monetary union) of what he would be outside", Draghi points out. However, the economy of Italy is hardly bigger in real terms at the present time that in 2000. The unemployment overcomes 10% in nine countries of the euro zone, and Spain goes on the way to being dismembered political and physically.