A SINGLE HORSE DE TROYA CAN BE ANNOYING BUT INSUFFICIENT

Two circumstances apparently opposed but necessary they dominate the European markets right now: the politics and the quantitative relaxation (QE), to observe the interaction of these two forces will be the biggest challenge in the investors during this year. The biggest surprises will come from the politics’ hand: the Greek stock market has fallen more than 15% since Syriza won the elections last Sunday. The profitability of the Greek funds with expiration in emitted July of 2017 the last year with a coupon of 3,375%, it already overcomes 16%. 

This is already that is to say at the moment a fact the only truth it is that Greece wins some elections apparently waited by its town and without a pause moment its economy collapses more quickly, I don't refer to its domestic economy that naturally has not given time to value what effects it can cause on her the new government and the new global economic situation. Certainly in the face of the first decisions of the government of Alexis Tsipras what seems a contradiction is to promise some economic improvements to the society that if it is certain the endemic state of the Greek bills they cannot be taken to term. 

Greece and their government maybe should have waited that is if he will understand each other with Brussels so that this it continues him the credits and the possibility of readjusting the conditions of the debt and of the deficit. I fear myself that Alexis Tsipras has taken the formula of the accomplished facts as form of expensive pressure to the UE its posture it is favorable to the emotional blackmail, and to put between the sword and the wall to the UE, in the sense of making responsible her indirectly that if it cannot complete its promises it is not in fact his blame, but of the bad economic politics of the UE, I find this very dangerous because it meets Greece and the UE to an absolute confrontation and under these conditions I don't know if they can be reached agreements. 

I believe that I don't eat I have already written several times the horse of Troya it is in the square bigger than Brussels and it is discharging the Greek warriors hidden in their wooden stomach their mission it is not another that to impose their will to the European community doesn't have the smallest doubt, and maybe it is the solution for Greece but certainly it is not it for the UE another serious thing that there is a flock of wooden horses one for each country that is under the same precariousness conditions instead of having a horse and of disagreement with the economic measures applied by the UE.    

But I fear myself that this is not neither it will be this way such and like they are the things in the UE I don't see any other horse in the square of Brussels all they are in their respective corrals with the line between the legs and the fallen ears waiting to see that it passes with the European QE, it is supposed that this month it should begin to be noticed the setting in march of the purchase of 60.000 million European debts if this is this way maybe that Greece will have been early and it cannot stay so alone but even outside of the corral. 

I am of those that I believe firmly that the victory of non-alone Syriza has been good but rather it was necessary to regenerate the Greek politics that had become perpetual and unable of making change the so much bad habits of the politicians as of its acts with what the Greek situation was as a black hole of the euro area where they will stop thousands of millions for not being able to change anything, the bad thing is that once gotten the victory Syriza runs the risk that if it doesn't calculate its plans and its force pass of black hole well to be a grain in the ass that will extirpate for annoying. 

Up to now, Tsipras has already given signs of going but for the one on the way to becoming grain that not the one of being a new style negotiator and I find this mistaken in the current circumstances in three days you has opposed to the idea of the UE of increasing the sanctions to Russia, Greece has always been reluctant to face with Russia, country with which maintains important commercial knots. Brussels fears the arrival to the power of Syriza to accentuate that resistance and put in danger the unit of the 28 partners of the UE in the conflict with Moscow Ukraine it has more than enough. 

The 28, included Greece, they emitted a five pesetas official statement in which they threaten Russia new reprisals for the escalade of violence in the east of Ukraine. Fuentes diplomats assures that the alone unanimity was possible thanks to the one it misleads of Athens that in the middle of transfer of powers didn't arrive on time to block or to soften the official statement. On Thursday, they add those sources, he will be proven the grade of the new governments of Alexis proximity Tsipras with that of Vladimir Putin during an extraordinary meeting of minister of External of the UE to study the new sanctions against Moscow. 

Some analysts consider that Greece could take advantage of its situation geostrategic and their bonds with Moscow to pull up a better agreement to the troika. But the potential of that relationship seems limited. Russia also crosses serious economic difficulties and it has left very not well stopped of its investments in the UE, where it affected him it removes in Cyprus and the construction of a new pipeline has just been frustrated through the Black Sea. 

But of a form or another Syriza it is mixing it all their internal politics and their doubtful possibilities as independent country. It has braked some privatization processes that were programmed and maintained their speech on the restructuring of the debt. This reaction scares the investors. Nevertheless, the true test is to arrive, when the negotiations begin with the rest of the euro zona.   

Outside of Greece, the program of the European Central Bank to buy public debt for value of more than a trillion Eurus it means that the yields of the public debt of the countries of the South of Europe are in historical minima; also, the European actions have registered important benefits in January. Unless there is a serious diplomatic crisis between Greece and the rest of the euro zona, the QE of the BCE should consolidate these tendencies. Even so, it could have surprises. The question is if it is the sufficiently solid thing to make in front of the derived economic consequences of the political action. 

The negotiations you complicated prevent, so much for the initial premises of Syriza that it claims a nominal cutting of the debt, like for the urgency of time, hardly one month. The second rescue concludes the midnight of February 28. And if there is not agreement between Athens and Brussels, the Government of non-alone Tsipras would not lose the departures paid but also the right to receive new loans to make in front of some debt expirations that ascend to 28.000 million Eurus between 2015 and 2016.