martes, 3 de febrero de 2015

THE POSITIONS DE GREECE IS ALMOST OF A SUICIDAL IRRESPONSIBILITY



Everybody economic and politician is pending of what Greece will propose I frankly don't find me well the attitude and the address that the government from Greece has taken in this respect, I don't find neither appropriate neither educated, I believe that a government that has under his designs to more than 10 million beings it cannot lose of view that no matter how much it has won some elections it is not neither owner of the country by no means of the society of the same one. 

I can understand that most of the society of Greece this weary one and I understand it because I am Spanish and above Catalan with what I suffer the Spanish recession and the Spanish double pressure on my native Catalonia to want to be independent, says it because he didn't want that it seems that my psychic situation is of joy and well to be and therefore maybe would disable me to criticize the Greek government's action. 

During last week the Greek government reminded us three things: the first one is that they will take charge that the crisis of the euro zona doesn't end up until part of its debt has been condoned. The second this debt is untenable and unpayable for what will have to finish sooner or later. The third are that, sometimes, they happen accidents, and according to them of all the foregone accidents, the most catastrophic would be, without a doubt, the call "Grexit" or the exit of Greece of the euro zona.  

In Germany on the contrary prevails the opinion that the exit of Greece would be a calamity for the country, it would cause a small shock for the euro zona and it would be something without transcendence for the global economy? The editorials of the press invite the chancellor Merkel to not giving in the face of the blackmail. Even Sigmar Gabriel, vice-chancellor and minister of Economy, assure that the consequences of the "Grexit" can control. In my opinion Germany is right the economic world knows that Greece cannot make in front of its debt and today the Greek debt it is practically in hands of worthy of the UE (banks central countries and BCE). 

But I believe to guess that the Greek government sees it in another way and he thinks that if it plays strong the UE will give fearing the effects that could cause in the world economies and vice versa, that is to say that the world economies would lose the trust in the euro if this Greece abandons to its luck. I believe sincerely that the Greek government makes a mistake totally. In fact, I am convinced that the consequences if Greece continues taking a risk in looking a security in its capacity to unbalance the UE and the euro it is a suicide. Maybe calculated to blackmail the UE. 

Greece doesn't count that its opinions has two effects: one certainly worries the members of the UE and especially to the partners of the euro area. But at the same time they cause a general uneasiness to those that could help because it puts them in a position of it turns blackmailed and this doesn't like anybody and stiller if they are bigger than you. The possible fact that they could leave harmed they won't like them and the euro zona at all. Greece today doesn't seem to understand the complex situation that would be generated with an unpaid of its debt and the exit of the euro. 

Alone they want to see that the problem is on the contrary, because the truth is that the Greek rulers should think How more we have to lose?, is the bad thing that they are not asked the What a question he has to lose the UE?, do I already respond them, anything absolutely, is the same as you gentlemen minister and president from Greece its money its debt has already lost it, and do they know it more than enough. The alone UE has to assure to the economic world that 2% of its GDP doesn't alter its bills neither its economy at all and frankly with a plan of injecting 60,000 million Eurus a month demonstrates it easily.  

My readers know that I am of those that say that the euro area would rot and maybe he should have made it some years ago absorb the Greek debt in a proportion that stops Greece under conditions to make in front of the resulting balance as he/she said yesterday it is impossible for any country to confront a debt that means 180% of its GDP but this doesn't happen and here we have the consequences some consequences that single today I value them at political level. An exit of Greece would suppose that the country would be outside of the euro zona but it would continue belonging to the UE. Could the UE have the unconditional support from Greece to the sanctions to Russia? To give an example.  

The exit of the euro for a posture of force not well expert on the part of Greece could be difficult for her economy, although the result would depend of how it was carried out. Of the diverse bad outcomes, certainly the worst is to continue applying political that don't work and that they don't have the back of the Greek citizens. And this is to understand it because of this it is guilty the own euro area those that closed the eyes so that enters to be part of the euro with what this means, they are those that now they should study if the culture and the idiosyncrasy of the Greek society would be able to rectify if leaves again. 

The best outcome reaffirms myself it would be the reduction of the debt together with the change from a fiscal surplus to a neuter budget at level fiscal and more reformations to take a short cut the corruption and the escape of taxes, but this doesn't fit doubt it is to continue intervening and watching over to the country and its economy sews that it seems that the new rulers don't like it. I believe that it is worthwhile to try to get this before to resign to that Greece leaves the euro.  

But what cannot be consented from the UE and the euro area is that Greece begins direct negotiations between Greece and its creditors, Greece is unless she says the opposite with a white it gives up a problem of the UE he likes or not, and this should not forget it neither Greece neither the UE, and the diverse unilateral pronouncements of last week have not been a good beginning. 

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