IT SEEMS THAT THE EURO HAD CAUGHT THE ROAD OF THE REALITY

The quick descent of the euro in front of the dollar has been braked lately. This could surprise keeping in mind the growing tensions around Greece that they are outlining fundamental doubts on the long term perspectives of the unique currency. The surest thing is that the euro continues descending. 

Several factors suggest that the alone euro is experiencing something similar to a consolidation, none a turnaround. The first factor that it is necessary to highlight is what the euro has already fallen. After being located around 1,13 dollars on Monday, the currency has lowered around 19% from its pick of May of 2014 in front of the dollar; and this year he has already fallen 6,5%. It is considerable movements, for what seems reasonable that the market is recovering the pulse. 

The second is that, until the moment, there have been few signs of infection of Greece. While the profitability of the Greek funds has been shot, with profit abilities for the funds that conquer in 2017 above 20%, the profitability to 10 years for Portugal, Italy and Spain has been falling so far. The Greek Bag has lowered more than 7% in so far in year, but the situation is better in the other big European markets. 

The third factor is that the economic indicators of the euro zona have been giving reasons for the hope, although the data of U.S, they have demonstrated to be less reliable. The economists have improved their forecasts of growth of the euro zona, keeping in mind that a lower euro, the important descent of the prices of the petroleum, the biggest flexibility in the European Central Bank and the best perspectives of credit generation are acting as incentive of the European economy. 

But the data of employment of EE. UU, well-known on Friday - according to which were created more than a million employments in single three months - they have shown that a great breach exists among the economies of the United States again and of the euro zona. This has impelled the profitability strongly to two years in USA, since the American types of interest remain in their maximum value in comparison with the types to two German years from 2007. Meantime, the Federal Reservation of the United States and the BCE advance in opposed addresses. 

These last two factors point toward a weaker euro. If an infection effect took place, it could be difficult to maintain the apparent calm of the markets, with the first Greek minister Alexis Tsipras faced apparently to the rest of the euro zona. Their speech on Sunday promising to relax the measures of austerity and rejecting an extension of the current rescue has intensified the necessity to maintain meetings with European officials this week. 

And although to the economy of the euro zona he goes him something better of that foreseen, it is not very probable that is the recovery type that would make the investors re-evaluate the perspectives of divergence in the monetary politics. A too big breach exists among the economies of USA, and of the euro zona. 

All these factors, considered in their group, suggest that the euro could still lower more. It would should I say and apparently he also waits for it Barclays that predicts the parity with the American dollar for the fourth trimester; while BNP Paribas locates it to principle of 2016. The trip of the euro cannot be exempt of setbacks, but the address continues being clear.