When an organization is surviving to as many economic
and political disasters as he is making it the Europe of the Euro, alone there
are two conclusions to take in consideration, or it is lie and they are
manipulating the reality, or the worst thing, it cannot sustain the debacle that
would mean its fall and he resists for obligation.
We will consider the matter from the worst point of
view the abrupt end of the euro that is unfortunately the virus that poisons in
these moments the political solution and the economic viability, of the
European Union in definitive. It is not that with this reflection he means that
for blame of the euro Greece is in crash, Italy also, Spain has spent more than
the bill, France goes to losing its economy little by little, it is not that
but that that yes it is clear it is that the euro didn't take us rather on the
contrary out of the well.
The reality is the one that is, and it coincides that
with the organizational system that the European union has you it imposed in
its day to work, a brutal economic anarchy has been created, when surprisingly
what was sought was the opposite. The fact that some commissions and central
parliaments, without any control attribution, on the governments and political national
of the participants of the European union, they have allowed that they have
been acting without knowing exactly in any moment, the economic reality of the
partners, this has taken to the union to not to control in such a way the
situation that today is impossible control it again.
Of course that this takes us to the conclusion, that
the authentic culprits of the situation are the own countries of the area euro
that have not known how to act with the appropriate responsibility, they have
not known, or they have not wanted, because rather I that the shots go for this
side find it, in the bottom my diagnosis, is that all the countries have wanted
to be as the one that more, as Germany I put as example, because I suppose they
wondered the rulers and the society of each one, so that we are in the European
Union if we cannot live better, ambition of the human being.
This reality, it has not left to it floats until this
catastrophe moment, contrasted and verified, and the worst thing is that it has
not been for own initiative of the European union, but because the external
financial markets that if they realized the real situation, of the disorder of
the different economies of an European Union they realized that in no way that
was an UNION OF NATIONS but an union to the force of an economy marked by the
euro.
Well the question is the one that we have today on the
table, and the analysis of the situation it doesn't present us more than two
solutions: To assume the failure and to rectify it political and economically
becoming the Union of Nations of Europe, or just the opposite to recognize the
fiasco and to undo it returning to the fair starting point previous to the
appearance of the Euro, when the structural differences of the partners, didn't
influence more than in the own partner, to opt for an or another alternative,
what is necessary is to value the situation and the figures to use to
understand it, they are the following ones:
When you implants the euro their value of change in
relationship of the dollar it was he/she gives. - 0.903 $/ € Today the euro is
in a value of 1.12 $/ € that is to say has a revaluation of 24%.
The GDP of the euro area is of approximately
12.188.781 millions of €
The debt of the area euro completes beat the 9.000.000
millions of €
The debt supposes 74% of the European GDP then, the
debt on the whole if the data are more or less reliable, it is not outside of
control the group of the euro area he can make in front of this debt, for it
the value of the € stays in the international markets. Sew that today it breaks
to the countries of the south of the area euro.
What is worse because the debt is not balanced, and
this is what produces chills neither Greece with more than 178 debt% on its
GDP, neither Italy with more than 120% of his, and we can already add Spain
that is practically in 100% of its GDP, they can make anything if they are not
rescued, and this cannot be, because among other things it would not be exactly
for the other countries. They would rot that yes, to be helped by the other
ones because no matter how much the European commission the ECOFIN or the BCE
press, and force to put new adjustments and deficit cuttings, he will give same
that makes, what he was necessary to make the they had to have made the problem
before in these countries it is already systemic.
To reduce costs to balance the budgets is well, but
this won't produce any debt reduction, because I doubt a lot that these
countries are viable, alone with the necessary reduction to cover the interests
of the debt and to cover part of the main capital, for reducing, these
countries you headstrong socially, and more being part of an European Union
with some levels of unified societies, it is absurd to seek to solve this with
single cuttings, like we would explain to the Italians that cannot make the
same thing that the Germans, or the Belgians, or even that the Spaniards whose
debt problem is still more controllable.
I don't see more solution than the one of two contain
the total debt of each nation of the combined euro and to put it in hands of an
entity that could be the same BCE or better to create a FDE (Fund of European
Debt) from where obligatorily, all the nations of the Union or at the moment
the Euro Area, they should go obligatorily to obtain the financing that now
obtain of the different financial markets and or bank. This entity took the
exact accounting of the alive debts and its percentages with regard to the
guarantees of the same country for country, and like he makes the free market
now it would value them with an internal qualification and it publishes that is
implanted that can be for letters or for numbers or mixed, and each country
when it appeals to the financing search, it will justify so that it is, sew
that up to now it has not never been made, the FDE will be able to refuse or to
reduce the quantity, and it will also put a cost of interest on each debt
according to the parameters of qualification of the country, of its trust, and
use, with that that for example Germany will continue having the cost of the
lowest debt in the Union and following the example maybe Italy the
highest.
The FDE will be the one that will emit to the
international market the emissions of unique European debt with the guarantee
of the European Union or of the BCE, it will be its work to get the necessary
funds for the necessities of the national economies and the necessary one for
the maintenance of the organizations of the UE, always to the lowest costs that
it is able to negotiate, likewise, he will be able to make operations of loans
or investments in international debts, to reduce costs and to obtain
quantifiable benefits that redound in the improvement of the effectiveness of
the economy of the euro.
They can already give him the turns that want, the
debt had dismembered the European and alone Union uniting the debt, he will be
able to unite the European dream again, including their maximum exponent the
Euro.
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