viernes, 26 de junio de 2015

I COULD WRITE A BOOK ON THE MODERN "ODYSSEY" OF GREECE



Greece and their creditors continue to the hunt of a good agreement I believe that some of an agreement and another of a give-agreement. The markets, however, show signs that they don't want to wait to that one is reached. Athens, after everything, is not the only thing in that that to think and they are right I would not wait anything you reaches an agreement or not, nobody will charge anything for there is not it another possible agreement. 

Yesterday Thursday he fell above the negotiators another element of pressure, since the president of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann questioned in public the constant injection of emergency financing for the banks of Greece. If the European Central Bank moves away the help, the problems of Greece would worsen quickly, and it could be difficult to give the turn to the situation. But the constant helps that he leaves giving to tolerate the debt it is already almost higher that the same debt to return, said Europe otherwise is making the business of the Roberto of the Goats that changed four of black for three of white. 

The news that they suggest that an agreement is negotiating cause a turnaround of the assets of risk; the later news that expose more obstacles are having less effect. In comparison to last Friday, the Stoxx Europe 600 follow 2,7% to the rise; the German profitability to 10 years is higher, while the Italian yields, Spaniards and Portuguese have fallen; and the cost of assuring the debt of a company with qualification of voucher garbage through the index iTraxx Crossover is around 8% lower. 

This implies that it leaves of the protection that the markets had built in front of a wrong it unravels in the Greek negotiations it has been mined. The investors perhaps are guilty of wanting too much a good end for the Greek odyssey. But while the Greek holders dominate minute to minute the movements, the global after bottom is improving. The economy of the Eurozone in its group seems to demonstrate its resistance to the fears Greece it has more than enough. The wages show signs of life in USA, United Kingdom and even the Eurozone. The fear to the deflation has disappeared. 

This can be condescending, but also hill to see the financial bonds that can make that the unavoidable turbulences inside Greece extend to the rest of the world, said otherwise there is not real risk that 270,000 million Eurus put in danger the world economy. The biggest risks are political, since the impulse to reach an agreement depends more than the politics that of the economy and it is this way if today there is not agreement it is because in Greece it governs a party communist neo that is to say Syriza.  

Seen this way, the weakness related with Greece begins to seem an opportunity to buy, more than to sell. A political rupture will cause a negative reaction; but it can be short. The leaders of the UE assure that Athens will have tomorrow its last opportunity to reach an agreement; otherwise, they will start a plan face B to avoid that the unpaid one harms to the rest of the Eurozone.   

The ultimatum arrives after several bankrupt intents that Greece accepts a plan of reformations so that the UE unblocks the 7.200 million Eurus of help. Tomorrow's of minister of Economy of the Eurozone meeting has been had to program after the Eurozone has been unable to find a consent, in spite of having been gathered in four occasions this week and of the negotiations among the first minister Alexis Tsipras and the creditors. 

The Euro group has taken charge to the troika that analyzes the last Greek proposal to see what elements they can incorporate to its own package of measures, and to prepare a final offer. The plans of the creditors left to the fret after the Hellenic minister of Finances, Yanis Varoufakis, presented its own proposal that the minister agreed to evaluate before cutting the negotiations definitively. 

The authorities believe that there are not possibilities that the creditors accept the new Greek proposal and they suggested that they are preparing a plan so that a possible one unpaid of Greece he doesn't have an effect infection. Among those plans controls would be included of capital and humanitarian help that this goes seriously even indicates it that the final meeting was carried out in short of week with the closed markets to avoid this way more abrupt movements of the necessary thing.  

The inability of the minister of Finances of reaching an agreement means that "now the final solution is in the leaders' hands”. To the view, Angela Merkel, insisted in that the topic discusses him the minister of Economy. "In some aspects, we have the impression that we have taken a step behind", Merkel declared after its arrival to the summit of the 28 leaders of the European Union that took place in Brussels. And he is right but the blame is of you "lead" them that they are unable to make a decision like it would correspond to you "lead" them that which means that like I come saying an and another time in the UE there is not neither union neither lead to make it. 

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