The resistance of the
euro in front of the dollar during the crisis of the sovereign debt of the euro
zone has been an enigma. The politicians have not cared to accept it as a vote
of trust in the unique currency. But, since the euro overcomes the 1,32 dollars
at the present time, very above its stocking of 1,285 dollars, he has become a
ballast for the recovery hopes (©2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc). they
finally begin to be given important signs on this topic that you know he brings
me very angry because I have always defended that it is one of the main causes
of the delay of Europe in leaving to it floats of the crisis and to avoid the
recession.
These opinions of
weight can be opening the door to a weaker euro. The keys can be the recovery
of USA. That it points to that leave of being applied new expansion politicians
on the part of the federal reservation. On the other hand, the European Central
Bank has paid more than 1000 million Eurus in loans to three years, and it
could still clip the types below 1%. And if the recovery of USA follows its
course, the dollar he could begin to benefit. Some conditions then favor a
weaker euro now. The market begins to advance an ascent of the types in
USA:
In front of other
foreign currencies, the euro is already devaluating. In the last three months,
it has lost 6,6% for example in front of the Australian dollar, the euro should
fall until being changed to 1,15 dollars this year, a tendency that would
continue in 2013. But I don't agree, that is to say that it is a consequence of
the external markets, and not of a measured action and calculated by the
financiers of the BCE and of the Ecofin that the Euro is devaluated it is good
for the export, but he won't have any overwhelming effect and express for the
industrial reactivation of countries and economies so important as Spain or
Italy that what they have to make besides exporting more, it is to reconstruct
its industrial fabric and in the case of Spain to build one again, and it stops
that it is necessary to invest new money and the cheapest thing possible.
The GDP of the euro
area is of approximately 15 trillions * (*1 million millions) of Eurus and
lately the BCE has launched an extra liquidity for the bank financing of 1.000
million Eurus that like one has seen it has not produced liquidity some, and
that is what needs the European economy, liquidity, my readers they know that
my theory of how to devaluate the euro and to reactivate the economy
immediately, it is with the help of putting in circulation but Eurus, and to
cause with it a fall of the very radical value of the same one.
If Europe increases
its circulating monetary mass so alone 2% of its GDP it would be equal to an
injection of effective of 300.000 million Eurus, this would cause a
depreciation of the Euro, possibly of the order of 10% as maximum, what would
take us to a change with the dollar USES of among 115/120 dollars / Euro,
change that I consider a lot but appropriate to the reality of the European
economies and of the USA.
A weaker Euro should
contribute to increase the competitiveness of the Euro Area in front of the
rest of the world. A fall of 10% in the pondered exchange rate could impel the
growth of the euro zone in 1.5 points that that added to the forecast of the
0,7 foreseen for this year it would locate us in growths of the percentage GDP
of the 2,2 during the first year, reaching 3% percentage points during the
second year, both percentages guarantee the creation of net employment. Better
still, everything points to that the economies that will come out more
beneficiaries of this situation are those of the south of Europe, as Spain and
Italy, where the prices can have a bigger impact in the competitiveness that in
countries like Germany and Holland whose exports have grown in spite of the
strength of the euro.
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