IN THIS STATE OF THINGS IT IS NECESSARY TO THINK OF WHAT SEEMS IMPOSSIBLE

Germany has said today that there is not it removes of debt for Greece this already feared it to me, the worst thing is that next he has said that by the middle of year if Greece completes that settled down and he improves they outlined a new injection of support funds, that is to say they will give him more unplayable debt, this to my it sounds me that it is, or the endless history, or the end of the Greece of the euro, because if today cannot make in front of its debt, as he will make it in June with its economy every time but ruined and its society but irritated.   

I think that the term of on June to decide is not because if in June it finished the presidency of Greece in the UE (now it would be ugly to toss to the president) they will also have settled already the new members and parties in the European advice (the elections are in May) this will be important because what type of political organization Germany to see has to be able to take according to that decisions. 

I believe that already in these moments they know it and of there the almost total unemployment of the community activity in what refers to alone economy final summaries of studies warnings and some is given that another advice, among so much Germany this digesting its "grosen" coalition, sews that he has a lot of importance for the rest of the europa of the euro and they will see because: when entering in coalition with the party social democratic Germany it will should (in fact it has already begun) to take more social measures that unload the rigidity of the former oriental German Merkel that takes this way again us to the deepest communism of continuing. 

But this bears some social expenses that are not expenses but costs that it is not the same thing in their mentality, for the Merkel and before this perspective, Germany what won't accept is to unload to the countries that their expenses or social costs cannot be paid another thing they will be the costs of their debts that if they will be fundamental, before this more than reasonable perspective in the euro area fears myself that the poor won't fit, said more difficultly or you can pay yourself the cost of living in the "building euro" or to the street. 

Well like he said all this it will already be known in June and starting from then they began to readjust to the euro area, I don't still know how measures will take but me today it would bet to recover the old idea of the europa of two speeds but never of the two Eurus, so or you can finance yourself your economy and your society or outside of the euro. That if you will be able to continue in the European Union but with your currency and your economy and to the rhythm that this marks you and if you get it and you return to parameters of the since euro you will already return, among so much the trade and the ownership to the European Common Market have it guaranteed.  

Up to now this position comes referred to Greece and its situation, but if Spain doesn't overcome its economy soon, so that it seems this way, it will be forced to present one it removes of its debt because to clip but it can represent him a social revolution of "weapons to take" this it would necessarily bear, to be left the unique currency. It would be a new scenario that would affect to the whole country. And the most probable thing is that it would affect maybe some more that would take the same one on the way to abandoning an economy outside of their real reach, thinking of that possibility has believed opportune to review and to analyze the economic facets that would be affected and I eat These they would be the main consequences. 

The euro would leave step to a new foreign currency that possibly serious in according to what cases the previous one, remember you that in Spain for example is still possible to change pesetas in the Bank of Spain and it is known that there are thousands of millions, so we would return again to the Peseta, the new Pesetas, would possibly reborn devaluated with regard to the foreign currencies we say strong as the euro or the dollar.  

But let us still be not alarmed because we see, the Peseta you change for the euro to 166,386 Ptas. / € that is to say a peseta you values at 0,006 thousandth of euro this change took place with a parameter that continues in validity that is the Dollar it USA and that in January 1 the 2002 he had a parity of 0,9038 dollars that is to say something below the parity today the euro it is in 1,30 / 1,35 dollars that which indicates that we have revalued the euro a 30,%. Like to this fact Spain has collaborated we can say that today the Peseta would be revalued following the parity with the euro to a value of 0,0079 dollars it USA / Ptas. Said a dollar otherwise it would be worth 126,58 Ptas. This is the change that hypothetically would govern today and that although it is not used to the practice if it exists in the pursuits of values of foreign currencies I activate. 

Starting from here and supposing that he took the foreign currency dollar like pattern should settle down the parity Ptas. / $ USA, he would be necessary to make two things: a to choose a new peseta that was more governable, this one could make transforming the peseta into a "new equivalent monetary unit to 100 old pesetas”, with that which we would be I relent of 1, 2658 Ptas. / 1 $ USA starting from here the market and the government would appreciate or it would depreciate the new foreign currency according to his interests and that of the financial markets. Immediately and following my theory would devaluate the Ptas. 30% and he would leave it in a parity of 1,65 Ptas. / $ USA this it would produce a strong reactivation of our productivity and economy automatically.  

More competitive exports: abroad they would be necessary them less Eurus or dollars to buy products. A similar effect would take place in the tourism. This at the moment would go very well since to Spain in tourism we are a world power and as the main factories with important manpower storing are of multinational character they would be suddenly under better conditions in front of the other European factories. The des localizations of signatures as Sony, Sharp, Yamaha, and others had not been necessary because our salaries would make comfortable to those of the Europe of the east, and for example paying salaries in Ptas. the mark SEAT would possibly pass to be more competitive for WW than the Czech Skoda. 

At the same time, we would have to support more expensive imports: the cared products would be more expensive. As Spain it cares all the petroleum and the gas that he wastes away, practically the energy and the transport they would be shot of price, but not what is thinking today the government. But it would be not necessarily harmful completely. Obligatorily he would decrease the consumption of external products and the internal consumption would be nationalized increasing the production of national products. All the imports of matters cousins would rise in price in function of the real devaluation of the new currency, he would be necessary to make a study because maybe the final cost of our scale of payments would not be unbalanced as much as it can be thought because against the increase of import costs, there would be the increment of revenues for export and tourism. 

The terrible Inflation not necessarily has to be given, for the foreign currency change. It would depend here on the types of interest that fixes the Bank Of Spain, he would be necessary to know that politics of interest of the money would adopt me calculation that we would leave to a fringe of the 5,5 / 6.5% of interest of the money about 3 basic points above the effective one for the euro. This should allow to maintain an inflation of between 3,5 and 4% as first objective.  

Regarding the external financing the Spanish debt imagines that the differentials that it maintains with the German sovereign debt would increase this never changed, already it was this way before now and while Germany is Germany it didn't change, but it would be the capacity that the market of capitals gives to the solvency of payments of Spain the one that would mark this differential or cost, I understand that in a first moment we could leave to a cousin of between the 600 or 700 points, lightly inferior that what Greece pays at the moment in Eurus. 

In the economy and the banking I don't believe that the situation went to worse than the one that there are now the small banks they would have less since pressure they would move but internally and better, its clients would have less possibilities to go outside its business and revenues of national character so they would probably increase, the two big Spanish banks neither he would make them tickle 75% of its business it is already outside of this problem they would simply take its power station of operations to the most advantageous country and they would continue acting as if such a thing.   

The state would have problems to be financed in the debt markets. That would depend that is to say on the conditions of the accounting of the state of the GDP and the countable deficit of the Spanish state, in percentage if he moves in the same current parameters that it would improve them sure, and also of the additional guaranties of the Spanish treasure, foreign currencies, gold, etc.asi like of their new GDP but on the contrary he would have the possibility to be created their own liquidity creating their monetary base.  

Internationally one would have to operate in the markets in Eurus, or dollar USA this it is not any problem if the new Ptas is included. In the market of convertible foreign currencies in this situation the state or the Spanish banks should pay in Ptas. The equivalent amount to the result of applying the monetary parities regarding Eurus in Dollars in Swiss Francs and in the foreign currencies that quote in the market of changes and we would not be forced to the Euro they remember that we would have abandoned him. Our debtors would pay with the foreign currencies of their election that in turn would contribute reservations to our national treasure it is alone question of equivalences it would not alter the risk more than now if the figures of change are clear. 

One of the risks that more one adduces in these suppositions it is the Flight of capitals: that that has savings maybe would try to put them safe, in Eurus, abroad. The big capitals if they would be a little disoriented but I have already said before that these capitals and financial and industrial entities, have more resources it was already that here, and I will tell them more, I think that it would alleviate them not to depend so much of a completely uncertain Spanish market and without visas of own solution.  

You look I see it totally possible, and I don't mean with this that we leave the euro. But that that if I tell them it is that to the Europe of the Euro it doesn't scare them that to Greece, Portugal, and to Spain, they had to throw of the Euro. What would worry them is that we leave us voluntarily the euro, tired of so many pressures and it lacks of results for our economy and we began to work as competitors and free clients, the same as before.