ALTHOUGH THE CRISIS GETS DRESSED OF SILK, CRISIS HE STAYS

And this shows last year with the data of the fourth trimester of the that show an interruption of the growth. The internal demand was solid, contributing to a growth of 0,8 percentage points in the growth of the GDP, but the trade lost 0,5 points. The exports fell 0,6% in the last trimester of the year in front of the three previous months. It also highlights that the exports descended 0,6% in the last trimester of the year in front of the previous trimester. Also, the exports of products fell even more, 1,7%. 

That contradicts the idea of Germany like power exporter and the concept that the exports are those that have maintained their economy in foot. In fact, in the last three years, it has not been the internal demand the one that has given an impulse to the growth of Germany, the exports. The fact contrasts with the stage previous to the crisis. This makes him to charge sense the idea that defends an adjustment of the German economic pattern. But we should not stay in Germany it is necessary to change the economic pattern of the whole UE and I maintain that of the world economy. 

It is certain that the global backdrop neither is very encouraging, what coincides with the message of the data of the index IFO of the managerial feeling. Although the German companies seemed satisfied with the current conditions, the expectations suffered a strong fall, and the makers were those that expressed a bigger concern. This is because it has arrived in Germany to the heart of the UE, the effects of the world globalization, so much in their productive slope as in the economic one. Today we begin to be all equals and when this happens everything it is equaled in the lowest range because it is the one that more is plentiful and therefore the one that finishes being imposed and overcrowding the globalization. 

The globalization doesn't go globalizer a rich society, but a barely enough society, it will never equal the unemployment standards the full employment, it never establishes an economy of survival of expansion, between other things because the world it is not rubber of chewing and it cannot leave stretching or inflating to pleasure of each one, if one makes at the end it explodes and you are hit in your own face. The globalization is magnificent while it is implanted, but once completed, the one circulates he stops it cannot follow more globalized the stagnation it is then irreversible.  

This puts of relief the current challenge in political matter: How should the politicians respond to the global problems? After the global crisis of 2008-09, the recovery has been irregular in fact because rarely it has been global. First it hit the crisis of the Eurozone; then they left to the light problems in the emergent markets, with China to the head; now, the concern rotates around that the decisions as regards internal politics in USA are satisfactory. But they could not be effective if there is not coordination. 

Because globalization doesn't mean coordination but just the opposite, to get the current globalization of the world, this it has been unbalanced in many aspects, the industrial production has been unbalanced, the universal Banking, the Petroleum, the politics has been destabilized he faces new and unknown social problems, in definitive, there is globalized the industry with the parameters of an economy of a world non globalized, but mainly we have created a series of new problems that we don't have neither he devises of how to solve them. 

And this is what today is arriving to the motors of the world and stopping them, we have an UE that doesn't start up in that its motor Germany no longer gives more horses of power to be able to crawl in turn to the rest of the Euro area and this to the rest of the UE and the same raisin in the USA, as it aims the agency Bloomberg, echo of the data provided by Moody's Analytics being made, Alaska, Dakota of the North, West Virginia and Wyoming already chain two serial trimesters of contraction of its economic activity, what confirms a recession in this states. 

In fact, according to the last up-to-date data consulted by this newspaper in the Desk of Economic Analysis (BEA, for their initials in English), in the first half of 2015, three of the states up mentioned they already registered a recession of their GDP. In the case of Dakota of the North, their economy contracted 10,4% last year in the first trimester of the and 1,2% between April and June. West Virginia registered a negative growth of 7,7% and 2% respectively while Wyoming contracted 6,1% and 2,3%. however, Alaska registered an expansion of 5,2% last year between January and March of the aid of 0,4% in the second trimester. 

"The indicators of the economic and financial activity continue presenting a short term weakness of the production", Joseph pointed out LaVorgna, economist of Deutsche Bank, in a report to their clients. "The rate of growth in the industrial production and in the sales retailers it is located in these moments at a consistent historical level with that of a recession", it warned. Among the main American banks, it is discounted in these moments 20% of probabilities that the economy suffers a recession in 2016 although among the investors this percentage ascends until 50%.  

But like I said and I maintain, there is not a recession as he understood each other this circumstance up to now and there is not recession, because every time it is manufactured more, be believed more, he wastes away more and, however, the numbers and the specialists in economy fear a general recession and this happens because what is happening is that he goes back. That that yes it is in recession it is the purchasing power of the society in general and the easiness of making business with benefits and the production ratios goes back for worker or employee, with he goes back it the employment to look for to balance them and this produces more unemployment and although there is more consumption statistically. Today there is more people than they cannot consume and less than they consummate more, with everything he goes back it well the to be social, and the economy and the politics, mask it saying that there are crisis and recession.