domingo, 14 de febrero de 2016

THE ECONOMY CANNOT DOMINATE THE WORLD, IT IS JUST THE OPPOSITE

The economic world to the complete one, the bags, the banks, the economists, the values and financial products and the generators of real wealth as the managerial world, they are disoriented completely because they don't know for where they go the world economy, I believe that this situation is erroneous and until they don't understand it the problem it was not solved, I believe that the situation that you began to take place in the 2008 with the surprise of the crisis of the subprime and the crash of Lehman Brothers one comes making worse because I understand that the economy like technique and business, continue without adapting to the later reality that I believe that it will be the future one. 
Not alone it is this fundamental fact the one that guides me to think that it must have a change of concepts and of activity when applying the economy like concept orientation and of great importance to apply the politics of life and government of the current world society the other factor that I repeat an and another time is the globalization of the world globalization that has already reached all the aspects characteristic of the human life, of the industry and of the economy. 
If you read the specialized newspapers or the pages of economy of the press in general they will see that alone there are complaints on the part of the economists the banks the markets they don't work they don't react the employment it doesn't ascend, the world production neither etc. And this stresses it as if the blame was that the world doesn't make them I marry that is to say the one that is mistaken it is the world, not the economy and the economists, I believe frankly that this is of a blindness and an arrogance that if it doesn't change us it can take to big economic and sociological difficulties. 
It is necessary that the world of the economy understands that they are not them who manage the world (that is it that in fact want), but rather they should be managed according to the movements of change that you happen in the entire world. That is to say, it is the world the one that sends about the economy and not the economy the one that can tell to the world like he should behave. It is something as simple as to think that the economy orders to the phenomenon of the “niño”, for example that already stops, because it is causing many losses in the areas of the I pacify of America central, or that the economy can force to that the wells of petroleum dried off during a time because now there is too much offer and the sale prices unbalance the economic plans of numerous countries producing of petroleum. 
This is the reality the world circumstances they constantly sometimes change for natural effects and others for political effects or of interests of a part or another of this same world and these realities are those that the economy should absorb and to look for the way that they produce the smallest damages and the best benefits to the same time what cannot think it is that I eat up he doesn't go well these causes it means that the error is of the world that doesn't follow the appropriate norms. 
After the knock of the Deutsche Bank of some days ago, when he collapsed before the doubts that he could not pay their debt, on Friday it was “Société General” (SG) him the one that hit very difficultly to the financial sector and, in passing, to all the bags. The French bank noticed that it could not maintain intact its objectives of profitability for this year because of the uncertainties on the regulation and the perspectives of the economy. The warning didn't sit down anything well to the market and SG it lost 12,6% in bag.  
The whole banking, already very crazy from year beginnings, he collapsed literally in the parquets. "The market is numbers in the means and I release term, but in the short one he moves for the fear. Simply because he/she doesn't know and it cannot dominate the reality of the concrete situation, the "effect flock" it derives in a stampede in which everything is in sale and the positive data are gobbled by the vortex of restlessness and real ignorance of the situation and partly it is logical because not alone it is that the "flock" doesn't know that it happens but rather the causing of the alteration that it causes the panic don't explain to it they don't announce it and let us say they don't fulfill the professional ethics that its responsibility in front of millions of people has. 
Last Thursday, for example, was known that the unemployment subsidies fell in 16.000 last week in United States, what shows the strength of its work market, with a rate of unemployment of the active population's 4,9%. But the market ignored it. the Dow Jones lost more than 2% and the investors left in stampede of the bag to buy "treasuries" - funds of the Treasure -, in spite of his low profitability. In so far in year, the demand of these funds to ten years has multiplied, what has elevated its price and it has caused that the yield passed from 2,3% to 1,6%. 
With the markets so jumbled and the scarce current visibility, the investors go to the habitual refuges: the surest funds, as those of United States or Germany - yesterday, these fell to 0,188% -, the gold and the yen, among others. In this group it is not the dollar that continues with their rally in front of the euro of the last days, in those that it has passed from 1,08 to 1,13 dollars this eats they already know those that follow me it is an atrocity that they determine an and another time to maintain the speculators of foreign currencies and that the investors believe it to him and they buy Eurus in some few months it will be a debacle because it is impossible that an euro is worth 13% more than a dollar for the simple reason that the American economy works and the European no.  
This dysfunction simply happens because, against what allowed to see the Federal Reservation in December, today the market gives more possibilities to a cutting of types than to new ascents this year that there are not more ascents can be but that the FED returns to after this I don't believe it to me. It is a statistical presage that shows the underlying reality that is the logical one, almost nobody he believes Janet since Yellen it goes up the types this year. 

In definitive: the euro, the dollar, the Yuan, the China. the USA, the CE. the petroleum. the Islamic wars, the invasion of Europe for the refugees, Russia that is sold and it clamors for another cool War, these they are the realities among others that it produces the world and what one cannot say is that as some they don't go well to according to what economies they are an error, the error is not to adapt the economies to the world and its circumstances and not the other way around.  

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