IT SEEMS THAT THE WORLD CRISIS COULD CHANGE OF DIRECTION THIS 2015

The situation "geo - political - economic" that you developing a point unexpectedly this last trimester of 2014 is very similar to that of 1998, year of the Asian financial crisis that ended in the default of Russia. As then, the petroleum collapsed and the foreign currencies of the emergent countries entered in free fall. This time although the similarities are many the emergent countries they are no longer so emergent and they are not to my way of seeing their economies so related, what possibly avoided a new global financial crisis. 

The fall of the price of the petroleum in the last six months, although it is partly taken place by a stagnation economic World cup it is not that the main factor, the petroleum has collapsed fifty percent, quoting the West Texas in the area of the 55 dollars. It has provoked it an enormous shock in countries like Venezuela, Nigeria or Russia, highly dependent of the exports of raw. The insurance of unpaid of these countries have been shot, and this and the fall of revenues makes that their economies collapse. 

This situation like he said it is not only bound to the world crisis but rather they play several concepts in this fall of prices we review the variables a little, an and maybe the most important is that the western world or said otherwise, the world dependent consumer of the petroleum has reduced its use an atrocity, the new technologies of production of energy have even braked reduced the demand of petroleum, this that was already seen come believes that they have not kept it in mind those producing of the black" "gold that he has already stopped to be it. 

To this reality the Fracking, technique with the one is added that the non alone USA has been liberated of the cared petroleum, but rather they become the main producer. China that came being the main consumer of world petroleum, has already announced that it will start the Fracking to unload its dependence, and for if it was little, occident imposes sanctions to Russia that they limit its export, all these measures they force to the Arab producers that in fact and practically with Russia, alone they depend from the revenues of the petroleum to try to make that it is cheaper its petroleum that the one obtained with the help of the technique of the Fracking. 

Everything has caused it and hurt to the foreign currencies and emergent countries but not to all them. The index of Bloomberg that continues to the 20 more exchanged currencies of emergent countries has fallen to minima from 2003. The Russian ruble or the Turkish lira, they are in historical minima. During the crisis financial Asian of 1997 and 1998, countries like Thailand and Malaysia they succumbed when trying to maintain their currencies, creating wonderful scenes as in South Korea, where the citizens donated their jewels of gold to the government to try to increase their reservations in the middle of collapse of their foreign currency, this today doesn't pass neither I believe that it happened. 

Now then a thing is the petroleum and another very different one is the effect that everything together makes that the USA becomes the power economic World cup again I number one, moving away the China that threatened her, with an own and cheap petroleum, with an economic recovery in march and before the security of a congress and republican senate visible. The American central bank is getting ready for its first ascent of types from 2006, that that yes it is a threat to attract capital of the emergent countries.  

The World Bank estimated the last year that the capital entrances in these countries could fall 50% if the yield of the funds of USA went up 1%. This change of address of the global capitals could impact to the countries with big deficits for bill current, as Turkey, South Africa and Brazil. By the middle of the 90, a series of ascents of types of interest of the Fed also helped to unchain an escape of the Asian currencies and finally the unpaid of Russian debt.  

At the present time the emergent countries have allowed that their exchange rates fluctuated, abandoning their fixed exchange rates that it was the habitual thing at the end of the years 90. This way, today in day some weaker currencies can shoot the inflation, but they can also stimulate the growth making that the exports are cheaper, with what the impact of a strong dollar can even improve their economies. 

The emergent countries have accumulated during these two decades a great quantity of foreign currencies foreigners, something that didn't happen during the financial crisis of the 90, what will allow them to mitigate in certain way the volatility in the financial markets. On the whole, they have 8,1 trillion dollars, in front of the 659.000 million of 1999, according to the data of the IMF.  

Also instead of getting in debt in dollars, most of countries emergent today in day he can obtain financing in their own currency, what allows them to return it without necessity of throwing of their reservations of foreign currencies foreigners. The foreign debt supposed 26% of the GDP of the emergent countries last year the, in front of 40% of 1999, according to the data of the IMF, although the types of interest are ascending in some emergent countries that it seems they are being ahead before the threat of the ascent of profitability of investing in dollars, they are still very below the levels seen in 1998.  

The great one harmed of all this it is Russia that cannot make in front of the fall of their source of revenues of none in the ways, he rose this way yesterday their types in 6,5 percentage points until 17%, and it has not served as anything. The lieutenant governor of the monetary organism, Sergei Shvetsov, assured that they are willing to take more measures to stabilize the local foreign currency. "The situation is critical. What is happening could not imagine it neither one year ago, neither although it was a nightmare", Shvetsov admitted.  And it tinged that, "regrettably, in occasions the perspectives of the financial market cannot even be foreseen short term". They can believe me, the decision for which opted the Central Bank is an option between the very bad thing and the bad" super, it pointed in allusion to the decision of going up the types. 

 

The curious of the case is that some few months ago, mad Russia with Europe, gave him the back in a rebuff expression and he threatens signing the contract of the century to give petroleum and gas to China, as wanting theatrically that to Russia it was not necessary him any the UE neither he worried about its sanctions, I wrote them then and I repeat it now, Russia without realizing, as always guided by their absurd fears and denying their true origins was sold China, such today and like they are the things China he can buy all alone Russia with offering him financing.