IN SPAIN IT ALWAYS RAINS ON WET

Bad premonitions for the South American continent. A study published by the insurance Coface foresee a complex scenario and “a future chain of insolvencies” due, among other things, to the fall of the price of the matters cousins. To macroeconomic scale, the economies of Latin America in their group will fall this year 0,2%, the first descent from 2009, when the crisis of the subprime exploded.   

What calls more the attention is that the almost entirety of the big economies of the continent will register negative numbers. To part the case of Venezuela (with a contraction of 7%), the situation of Brazil whose economy will experience this year a contraction of 2,5% highlights. If you confirmed, it would be the first time in 85 years that the Brazilian economy registers two years followed by negative growths. Also, it is necessary to remember that the seventh economy of the planet has a qualification of the debt like “speculative” on the part of the international agencies. The only exceptions in this negative context will be Chile and Peru that will aim some modest earnings this year. 

“The GDP of the region has you stopped from the 2011 and in 2015 neither the things will be different. It is not expected that the prices of the matters cousins increase in a next future and these drops rates are having negative impacts directly in the commercial scales and in the private investments. The falls in the public investments and in the expense of the governments, due to smaller fiscal revenues, they are also collateral effects”, Patricia writes Krause, economist of Coface.    

If he spends to examine in detail the situation for economic sectors, then the square is still more preoccupant. Practically the entirety of the activities is in situation of “high risk”. The crisis is not only in government's palaces or in the law of budgets: it has arrived to the same companies. Here the analysis goes in detail. 

- In the agricultural sector, it is also necessary to register the consequences of the bad meteorology, due to The Boy's arrival. The collapse of the prices of the soya and the increase of the cost of the import of fertilizers (the national foreign currencies have collapsed in the last months and the dollar has not still been reassessed it USES) they have passed invoice.    

- In the textile sector, the companies discount a lack of competitiveness. Up to now the signatures could take advantage of the products coming from China, but the depreciation of the currencies of several countries of the region has increased the price of the materials and finished products. 

- In the steel sector, up to now the continent hoped to be able to sell steel and copper to China. But the Asian giant's difficulties have transformed the plans. The growing weakness of the national industry, in particular in Brazil and Argentina, it is not being enough to compensate the smallest demand.   

- In the auto motion, except for the exception of Mexico, for years focalized toward the export, the difficulties are especially attractive in Brazil and Argentina. In the first six months of the year the Brazilian production of automobiles has lowered 21% in sales and he has decreased 25% the insole of the sector. The interior market is very crazy due to the crisis economic and smaller wages.    

- In the construction, the real estate bubble in Brazil has punctured and in these moments there is an offer excess. The types of interest are increasing and the banks are beginning to cut the faucet of the financing in many countries. In summary, the square in Latin America is very uncertain. 

The Spanish companies that have enormous investments in the area will have taken note of it. And to get ready for the worst thing is a situation that regarding to the Catalan problem he doesn't help at all if to the bad forecasts of the South American markets he unites the possible Catalan independence the Spanish economy it can stagger what possibly causes the accelerant of attacks without logic neither the government's coordination, dangerously banks, companies and Spanish politicians against Catalonia of this week.    

If Spain doesn't negotiate with Catalonia and a non-friendly break that can cause a total isolation among the two economies the Catalan and the Spaniard takes place and to the Spanish companies that now base its bills of results in the South American markets they collapse the Spanish GDP it can put in risk the relationship “Debt / GDP” that is already practically from 1 to 1 that that inevitably it would take to a credit requalification of Spain like one says it always rains on wet.