The
result of the recent general elections in Spain has been "all the confused
one that it could be", disabling between two for political logic
Government's alliance parties beyond a "no commendable" coalition
between PP and PSOE, according to The Wall Street Journal that considers that
the reformations that he needs the country now seem more distant than never.
Anyway, I as Spanish would not throw me to the fire of the hell because the
truth is that the politics in Spain is very from Spain and what seems
impossible at the end is possible thanks to the infinite possibilities of
"paying" privilege positions in the lattice of the Spanish
state.
The
reformations that Spain needs now seem more distant than never, the political
uncertainty created in the country doesn't have easy arrangement, but the
politics of the BCE with the purchase of monthly funds he won't make visible
the problematic situation in the short term, another thing will be when the BCE
changes expansible politics to the normal one and stop to buy funds". at
the moment in spite of the incognito of the politics, Spain will benefit of the
armor-plating provided by the European Central Bank (BCE) whose program of
purchase of sovereign funds has reduced the interest from the Spanish debt to
ten years below 2%.
But
Spain cannot have a BCE that buys its funds forever and none of the four main
parties in Spain presented during the electoral campaign a battery of measures
integrals to approach the challenges of the Spanish economy, including the
rigidity of the labor market, the prevalence of the small industries in the
Spanish managerial panorama, as well as the first floor investment levels and
productivity, the innovation shortage and the poor results of the educational
system.
Besides
all this it seems that one gives for fact that Spain continued having the
Catalan economy and this matter is much more dangerous that the current
political bewilderment for the stability of the economy of Spain, we are to
alone one day that the CUP reaches the conclusion that it is worthwhile to
support the investiture of Artur Mas for the presidency of Catalonia if this is
this way, the things changed suddenly, we all will see as the differences of
the four parties "winners" of the Spanish elections they will come to
an agreement like for magic art with such of having something to govern because
if Catalonia culminates its independence all they know although nobody wants
neither to think it that Spain will have many difficulties for the equilibrium
its economy and to maintain its debt.
It
is certain that Spain is not Greece and none of the four main parties seeks to
reject the obligations of the sovereign debt, "even We Can it moderated
its speech in this respect before the elections" but like he said before
it is not question of wanting but of being able to, if Catalonia finally gets
its government stability to begin the project of its independence and Spain
continues refusing to find a reasoned solution him to take to kind of an union
more or less storm or indefinite but of similar to same that is to say among a
Spanish state and a Catalan republic that he helps assuming a proportion of
Spanish debt, Spain won't be able to defend its thousand millions of debt Eurus
with a GDP of about eight hundred thousand millions and with the productive
structures that he would have left in its territory.
It
is possible that the current virtuous circle (but very flimsy) of growth of the
exports, reduction of the unemployment and increase of the expense of the consumer’s
derails for the search of a new Government, but they don't doubt it if it
derailed if there is a true crash of trains between Spain and Catalonia.
Because if this happens Catalonia the productivity it would be taken and Spain
would keep the debt, it is a panorama that doesn't suit I believe me neither to
Spain neither Catalonia.
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