HAPPY NEW DOLLAR AND A PROSPER 2016

In a hand, a sword, and in the other one, a scale. They are the two elements that the well-known goddess sustains as Lady of the Justice. The sword symbolizes the power, the authority to make complete the justice, while the scale represents the objectivity, to consider the tests and allegations of both parts. 

Among the hands of a woman he is now becoming of the economy of the world. Janet Yellen, the president of the Federal Reservation (Fed), it is the visible figure of monetary politics’ change that United States has begun. Fair or not, the certain thing is that the beginning of a stage of ascent of types has begun, if that is completed foreseen, in less than a trimester this fact and the decisions that they take the central institutions of all the states of the world will mark the rhythm of all the big economies, and a lot more than the small ones. 

The first ascent of types in almost one decade in the world globalized will still make it more and more unstable and it doesn't accompany in general the economic stability of the USA The explanations given in the meeting of the Fed of December in that the shot of ascent of the price of the money was given they have given a point of tranquility when announcing that the speed that he takes the central bank to carry out new rises of the price of the money will be adjusted to the economic effects that leave observing in the whole world. 

The emergent countries, already hit by the economic deceleration in China and for the weakness of the price of the first matters, they are those that wait with more fear the change of monetary politics of the first world power. But not all the emergent ones are in the same situation, for what suits to differentiate the impact country for country. Among the big losers, Brazil and Turkey they are two of the signal ones, while the experts locate at Central America, with the clearest example in Mexico, toward the other side of the scale, as possible area benefitted by their correlation with United States. 

There are opposing opinions some to favor and others in against clear this regarding that if there is a region that will take party from of the rise of types to the other side of the Atlantic, that it is the area euro, where, also, the monetary politics of the European Central Bank (BCE) far from hardening it will be lax in next months. This duality of a stronger dollar against a weaker euro should make react the internal economy of the Eurozone to get two objectives one to be more competitive in the international markets based basically on the dollar and another to my more important view to recover companies or products un localized outside of the market euro. 

The new era, where United States will move away from the types zero, it will contaminate mainly to the rest of economies of the world for two roads: for the own ascent of rates that urges the financing, and for the effects of the foreign currency, since technically the dollar will spread to be appreciated, although it has discounted part of the rise in the last months. The ascent of types will have adjournment through the dollar, and it will affect to all those economies that are dollarized. 

The other important point is the debt. On one hand, and bound to the above-mentioned, (to get financing, the emergent ones have to get in debt in dollars and the indebtedness will go up them). This is an immediate effect. With a stronger dollar, the same debt now grows alone for the effect it sights. And, on the other hand, some higher types will press to the rise the financing costs. 

The emergent markets should get ready for the implications of a deterioration of the international financial conditions, he notices the IMF in their last report about the world financial stability, where it sentences that "as the advanced economies normalize the monetary politics, the emergent markets should get ready for an increase of the managerial" crashes and the foreign companies displaced them to the loss of benefits or results. 

Although the debt of emergent economies is comprehensible inside the economic cycle in the one that are, from Goldman Sachs admits mainly in a report that they are worried by the debt in the economies of emergent markets, in China, where the relationship debt / PIB has been increased near 100 percentage points during the world financial crisis. 

The companies of these countries have also gotten in debt in fact for the low types of those that he enjoys part of the planet. The levels of indebtedness of the companies in the emergent markets have increased, particularly in the sectors of the construction and the petroleum and the gas, due to the drops interest rates in the advanced economies, they affirm from the IMF that they calculate that the debt of emergent companies in relation to the GDP has climbed 26 percentage points in ten years 

Although the emergent markets will fight with this bigger debt load, not all the effects of an ascent of types of the Fed are negative. The experts point to emergent regions that can come out airy of the new scenario that approaches. Central America is one of these areas. 

Their economies are usually correlated with the American economy. An ascent of types goes associated to a strong domestic economy, with growth of GDP, market labor solid and increase of wages. For Mexico, this scenario is beneficial because United States cares a great volume of Mexican goods, and an alone economic improvement should improve this circumstance, in Central America the main benefit will come from the remittances that these countries receive from their many civic residents in United States that you/they will be beneficiaries of the positive labor scenario. 

In the area euro the positive implications are clear. In the first place, Europe will be the biggest beneficiary for a weaker euro. Although the change euro/dollar has already discounted great part of the ascent of types, some experts believe that the crossing could come closer to the parity or to be located in levels in the environment of the 1,03 dollars in the next trimester, what leaves journey from the 1,09 current. And, in second place, in front of the turn of the Fed, the BCE seeks to extend its stimulus measures to the economy.  

Also other foreign currencies as the yen - the Bank of Japan an expansible politics also maintains - they could continue its tendency to the drop in front of the dollar. In the search of emergent that don't leave harmed, you point to that the India won't hardly have any collateral effect, because it is not very indebted. From BNP Global Paribas Market qualifies the country like “relative winner” among the emergent ones and they point to another strength: their growth. This he doesn't feel the effect as much as in other emergent ones thanks to the recovery of the agricultural production and the increase of the construction.  

In the other side of the scale, Brazil and Turkey they appear as the countries where the experts come more risks before the ascent of types of the Fed. Brazil will absorb this change in a moment in which accuses its own difficulties, with some expectations that are not positive, at least for the next trimesters. The IMF already foreseen a fall of the GDP of 3% this year and of 1% in 2016, in front of the descent of the 1,5 and of 1,7 dear% to half of the year. The problem is that Brazil to combat its recession was not him a lot of margin to be able to clip types and to devaluate its foreign currency. The depreciation of the foreign currency is already more than notable: the dollar wins 40% in front of the real one in 2015. 

Also, it is not necessary to subtract importance to the political uncertainty in Brazil, neither in other countries. In the case of Turkey, the biggest problems are framed in the geopolitical tensions more than in their level of external debt, the indebtedness of Turkey is of 36,5% the GDP, "according to data of Bloomberg". And lastly it is the great one incognito of Russia that in my opinion on one hand it was beneficiary because the slope of the prices of the petroleum and of the gas they were corrected a point with the revaluation of the dollar however this can be absorbed and overcome because their imports of almost everything will also suffer for the increase of the dollar and of the euro in relation to the ruble. Russia soon will make an economic decision of vital importance and this decision will be or to that sights it ties to the ruble (to the dollar or the Euro) or if he/she decides once and for all to request to adhere to once and for all to the euro.