Eight
years after a devastating recession opened expansible ultra-monetary politics’
era in USA and an inhuman social recession in the rest of the world, the
Federal Reservation began on Tuesday a meeting of two days in which one waits
that it changes address and go up the types of interest now in a more and more
normal economy lack to see if after eight years of an abnormal economy this it
will be able to return to the normality I personally doubt it something it will
be necessary to change we will already see it.
The
decision will be disclosed on Wednesday to the 19:00 GMT and the markets are
prepared for an initial "take off" of 25 basic points that would take
the objective of types of the FED., of about zero percent to a range between
0,25 and 0,50 percentage points, some authorized voices announce that during
the year 2016 can be arrived to some you interest of 1%. what each trimester
would be equal to some staggered ascents of 0.25%.
Next,
the president of the Fed, Janet Yellen, will offer a press wheel to comment the
last official statement of monetary politics of the American central bank. The
markets showed a positive scenario potentially before the turn historical of
the Fed. The market indexes in Wall Street ascended around 1 percent on
Tuesday, the yield of the funds advanced and the analysts said that, after
weeks of preparations, the decision of not going up types would be in these
very harmful moments.
"Given
the strength of the signs that they have been sent the credibility of the own
FED would be destroyed in the event of not making it", the former
secretary of the Treasure Larry Summers said, a sceptic of the necessity of
going up types at this time, in published comments on Tuesday from its place of
Internet. An increment of the types will differ to the FED of the big central
banks in Tokyo, Frankfort, Beijing and other where you fight to stimulate its
economies and to generate growth he doesn't lack reason, but it is evident that
somebody has to break the vicious circle you cannot continue maintaining a
growth with the help of paying it the central banks that it is the same thing
that to say that they pay it the states and not to private initiative.
In
spite of the initial increment waited for Wednesday, the monetary politics in
United States will continue being very expansible and high positions of the FED
they have pointed out that they will act from now on with caution. The markets
and analysts will be centered in the exact language that the FED will use in
its official statement to justify the rise of the types and to describe how it
will evaluate the moment of a second increment and later measures. Until
September, the members of the central bank waited four increases perhaps in the
types of interest next year.
The
FED will have to demonstrate that a new form of negotiating the types will work
like one waits, to see how some higher types affect the local and global
financial conditions, and to wait that the weak world demand and the prices of
the matters cousins don't take to a general period of deflation that has to
revert the undertaken course. To be considered a success, the FED needs that to
the increment in the federal funds continues him a continuous growth of the
economy of United States next year, a low unemployment, and, perhaps, the most
complicated thing, an acceleration of the inflation.
It
won't be easy I believe me because the situation of low costs has stayed too
much time and it has deformed to my way of seeing the classic norms of the
operation financial and economic facts as paying to acquire debt instead of
lending capital on the part of the commercial banks they have taken to
financial formulas that now entered in competition with the turn to the
previous economy this situation for my it is the incognito one more dangerous
than I see because if with cost zero as much the credit as the capital
retribution, this it has not flowed for the private initiative that has been
had that to find with other formulas because now it will return to
the banking and to pay for it.
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