It
will no longer sustain more time the current crisis with the help of not
capitalizing the money the things they will already return to their place the
big debtors they won't be able to continue getting in debt as happily as up to
now the money little by little anger costing more and more to obtain it, but on
the contrary it will also be more profitable to have it and there is the change
that you/they will make the economies here because what is clear is that A. -
their debts and B. will break - they will return more money for those than they
have. The central bankers from all over the world were requesting to their
homologous of the American Federal Reservation a he runs off with of the types
of interest it is already here, and for sure we will finish the 2016 with the
price of the dollar in 1%
It
is not that he has a glass ball that shows it to me it is that so much in
public as in private in the conference of central bankers that was developed in
Jackson Hole, the message of authorities was that the Fed telegraphed a
hardening monetary initial and, after a he runs off with of the dollar that is
prolonged for one year, the financial markets at world level they say to be as
prepared as they could be. I believe that the volatility of the markets last
week went more as preparation to this event that not to the restlessness of the
economy China also reinforced by the entrance of the Yuan in the market of
foreign currencies.
Some
economies accused of the volatility that they are come above to the actions and
comments of the Fed that the ascent of types altered their costs. For the
governor of the central bank of Mexico, an increment of the federal funds on
the part of its neighbor sends an encouraging sign of economic health, even if
that forces to its institution to also go up the types. "If the Fed
hardens (the monetary politics), he will be due to the fact that they have a
perception that the inflation is advancing, but more important it is still that
the unemployment is falling and the economy is recovering", Carstens
affirmed in an interview with Reuters". For us that it is a good
news", he added.
In
spite of the fact that Yao Yudong, official of the Popular Bank of China,
accused last week to the Fed for the turbulences of the market and he said that
a he runs off with of types it should be postponed, most of the central bankers
of emergent markets contacted by Reuters in Jackson Hole and in the last months
they share the vision of Carstens. The end of more than six years of types in
levels minimum record in United States could produce a potential wave of
painful adjustments while the countries fight with the probability of a
stronger included dollar and in the face of exits of capitals and changes in
the relative prices of goods transables.
However,
the end of the uncertainty for the authorities could compensate those
difficulties. Effects of the lax ultra-monetary politics in United States have
been felt in countries so diverse as Chile and Switzerland. The inflation annualized
in Chile has been consistently above the objective range of the Central Bank of
between a 2 and 4 percent. Latin America has seen an increase of the inflation
as the countries "internalizing" the evolution of the monetary
politics of the Fed, the president of the Chilean Central Bank, Rodrigo assured
Vergara, in the conference.
That
tendency type has been in progress during about two years, when the ex-president
of the Fed Ben Bernanke untied a strong tension in the markets after suggesting
that the central bank was prepared to reduce its program of purchase of funds.
Two years later, the authorities of the Fed say that certain volatility is
unavoidable when the politics becomes hard. The emergent markets, the smallest
economies, often look for to have a weaker currency. So from their perspective
a hardening of the Fed could be useful to weaken its foreign currency and to
help them for what you/they want to make that is supposed it is to be more
competitive in front of the dollar.
Iodine
this is well from the point of view of the macroeconomics of the central banks
but the economy of the street will pass it very bad, of entrance an ascent of
interest elevates the cost of the debt immediately and of the deficit of the
bills of the states it urges the import products to all the poor countries and
I include in this chapter to Russia because to these countries that or they are
producing of petroleum or of basic, agricultural matters mainly, they will pay
them less and less dollars and however they, will have to pay and to return
more dollars: one because the dollar will strengthen and another cause, because
its currency was devaluated.
Me
the truth is that I believe that too much of the time has been abused granted
by the Fed maintaining the price from the money to 0, this at the end has made
that numerous economies have thought of era the future one and it was not this
way and now he will see, Spain for example has elevated its debt in more than
25% spending from 800 to 1000 million Eurus during this period of cheap money
now will have to return it more expensive, because the euro doesn't doubt it
was devaluated in front of the dollar, but the interests also rose in Europe,
the BCE won't take a lot in making it when he makes it the Fed.
At
the end we will realize that during every year this alone maneuver has been
good to maintain the illusion that it was facilitated to the economies the
possibility to leave the crisis, thanks to paying less for the money. But the
problem is now, because the economies of half world didn't understand this way
it, but rather they understood that this facilitated them to get in debt more
and more because they were saved a lot in interests. Now the saving finished
now this saving he/she becomes in more cost and expense, at the end we will
have saved ourselves alone the chocolate dl parrot.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario