lunes, 4 de junio de 2012

HE WILL ALREADY BE GORGING EUROPE OF SWALLOWING SO MUCH CRISIS

  

"The crisis", Machiavellian word that, it has put in check to the whole UE, and questioned the belief that you could continue with a monetary union without evolving toward something much narrower. The Countries current partners of the euro will have to deepen in their integration until achieving a total and homogeneous economic and monetary union. Everything aims that "Europe has gorged of crisis" and that he goes toward an enormous qualitative jump that is already compared by many with the Treaty of Maastricht that in 1992 he sat down the bases for the birth of the euro and the approaches to consent to the Monetary Union.    

For what I have read today and yesterday, the ideas that are managed agree completely with my idea of what should be the European union, I am convinced that if has been this way we would not have arrived to "The Crisis" that is destroying us. The version 2.0 (as some specialists they begin to denominate the rectification of the treaty of current Maastricht), it could include, according to the theses of Berlin, from the direct election of a president of the European Commission, to the creation of a true monetary bottom for the partners of the euro and to arrive for that road, on-line with the Elíseo, until the emission of Eurobonds of all the partners' combined debt, possibly also to the creation or transformation of the BCE in a more even institution to the FED.   

Everything it with the objective of increasing the political genuineness of the Monetary Union, to shield the financial stability of their components, and to be endowed of budgetary instruments to compensate the unavoidable macroeconomic imbalances in the breast of the area euro. The first steps toward that new European Monetary Union are expected they can be approved in the summit of final of June, when it could be made a pact the method and work calendar. 

But any advance in this sense, it will be subordinated to a narrow and centralized control of the national, such budgets and like the German chancellor wants and like it supported on Saturday Mariano Rajoy. Berlin wants to guarantee for law, a veto right about certain budgetary decisions that now they are considered exclusive competition of the national Parliaments, and it is conscious that the change will require a negotiation at the highest level.     

The challenge of Merkel could scare in France, country that rejected in 2005 in referendum the first intent of giving the jump toward a European Constitution. The current president, François Hollande, defended the then yes. But in their Cabinet today they are some of the most prominent leaders in the no to the European Constitution, as the minister of External, Laurent Fabius. 

The step toward the economic and monetary federation includes many other obstacles. Among them, the creation of a true Bank" "Union to avoid that the possible deterioration of the financial sector, threaten the solvency of some Countries that they no longer have a central bank characteristic with executive capacity to defend. That bank union, marked as priority in the informal European summit of the past May 23, it would happen, among other things, for the creation of a unique financial supervisor, a European bottom of guarantee of deposits and a European mechanism of liquidation of insolvent entities.   

This same Wednesday, the CE has foreseen to approve the project for that mechanism, but its entrance in vigor it seems still distant. Anyway, Brussels already recognizes that alone there is an alternative to these advances, alternative to which seems to give up definitively, since would consist on the disintegration of the euro. In all ways I don't want to sing the hymn to the happiness, as sign of total and almost definitive europeísmo, he plays us to suffer and to suffer 20 days that are fancied very long and with more curved and differences that a Russian mountain of fair.   

The question is if all the countries of the euro group are already, convinced and resolved, to say it is already enough to the chaotic political situation with which manage ourselves, and that in definitive it is the causing one main of the economic crisis, the absence of a common politics has deepened to unsuspected abysses the economies of each country, and he doesn't survive neither Germany, although its position of force maintains it outside of the chaos it is very possible that no longer has more remedy than to arrive to a balance point between its national interests and those of the European Union. Always memory when making this comparison that was Germany the instigator of this project because in their moment he already saw that alone it could not continue growing. 

The doubt that presses me now, is that the attitude of hardness of which has made Gallic the chancellor Merkel that we don't deceive ourselves has crawled to the deepest crisis to the economies of many countries, have created a sense of mistrust and rejection to the solution of the created problem, this dilemma is right now for me the possible Gordian knot that it is necessary to cut. Greece accepted a new European constitution that ties it more, and France, will have enough protagonist to satisfy its "Grandeur" they are examples to illustrate the difficulties with which it can be the possible new European treaty. 

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