HE CAN THAT THE WORLD DOESN'T FINISH, BUT MANY DON'T COUNT

The global growth was of 1,1% during the first trimester. This was the weakest expansion from 1998, according to JPMorgan Chase. The warning on a long term or secular stagnation that made the ex-secretary of the Treasure of the United States, Lawrence Summers, gets paid it forces and the central banks find more and more reasons to maintain the monetary politics’ flexibility. This more than a warning is, I believe me, a this clear desire for born speculators as they are as much JPMorgan as the Lawrence Summers, but that it is necessary to keep it in mind because if this is what interests them, it is of what we have to defend the other ones. 

Anyway, that doesn't impede Simon Cox, investment strategist for Asia Pacific of BNY Mellon Investment Management, to think that with some luck the economy could grow a lot more than what is expected. If the big powers of the world grow to some lightly superior rates to those predicted by the international organisms, everything radically changes. Cox felt so much curiosity that associated with The Economist Intelligence Unit to analyze what it would happen if in the big economies USA, Japan, China and India, took off at the same time. In their group, they constitute almost half of the world GDP.  

"If those four economies lit the motors at the same time, the growth and the trade would increase in the rest of the world, the fall of the prices of the first matters would be reverted and a bigger increase of the global prices of the actions" would be impelled, Cox said in a report correspondent this month to their clients. As they come I am right what JPMorgan and Summers expressed was a story of fear so that the world rotates afraid with what can happen, if he doesn't try to make what I study Simon Cox. At the end the preoccupant of this is that he/she gives the impression that the century 21 come up big and we have not still made ourselves with the new rhythms with which the events are happened. 

The mockery of Cox assumes that if Japan is able to have a half growth of 2% during the rest of the decade that the United States gets 3%, China 7% and India 8%. In any case it is some perspectives so disheveled as it can seem at first sight. In USA, for example, the International Monetary Fund predicts a growth average of around 2,5% of here at 2020, that which is not much the difference with the report of Cox that he speaks of 3%, on the other hand, the IMF is usually pessimistic to cause this way a bigger interest for the constant reactivation. The growth of USA has overcome its more adverse presage in 16 of the last 24 years, while Japan and India overcame it in 15 occasions, according to Cox. China has overcome the worst presage in 22 of the last 24 years. 

There is also margin for an acceleration of the economies. The breach among the real growth of the United States and that that the economists consider that they are their possibilities it was of US $5,3 trillion in the last seven years, the equivalent one to close the group of the economy during three and a half months. This means that the United States has operated below its capacity in around 60 of the last 80 trimesters. What would it happen, then, if what Cox calls the Group of the Four passed to advance to all machine? Cox and the EIU estimate that there would be 10 trillion additional dollars in the GDP of the group in 2020. An impulse would be provided from 8 dollar trillions to the rest of the world. 

Interesting end of these conclusions but to me they produce me a certain concern because I see that the studies on the economic GLOBALIDAD of the world the specialists bound it in the evolution in the USA, China, Japan and the India, and my question is where this Europe no longer counts for anything and what is worse depends on these new four points cardinal USA, China, Japan and the India, sad truth preoccupant also realize you my European followers that we are no longer in the “global world” and the blame is our I say it and I repeat it an and another time the UE it is a very beautiful story but that it doesn't work. 

And it doesn't work because there is not union and they don't tell me that it is only my opinion because it is not it, the test has it that we are 28 countries, but 19 we go on one hand with our euro, and the rest of Europe doesn't already know where neither with who to go is 5 candidates officials to enter to be part, 2 more potential but that they have not begun to negotiate, 3 that they are thinking it to him but they don't make action some and 11 that could consent for geographical position. And of course this Russia that neither it counts and that it would be as always I say who would conform an authentic block economically able to be independent, of the four together with the other ones before mentioned and that we would also mark the destination of the global world while we don't see it we will hope this way they make us dance to the they are that they play the four big mentioned economies.