THE HISTORY FORGETS BECAUSE THE SOCIETY BELIEVES THAT IT IS AN OLD BOOK

From the beginning of the Greek crisis, there for 2010, one has spoken of the chaos that would suppose the exit of Greece of area euro, as well as of the misery that he would leave in the Hellenic country. But not all the experts coincide in the same pessimistic vision of the event and, in fact, there is who defends that the repercussions would be much more than positive for the Greek economy. Among them my readers know I am, but I cannot refuse write on this topic again because this time I am not me who he says it the he says the history and much more authorized characters that me. 

One of these voices that discusses that the abandonment of the euro on the part of Greece doesn't have to be a drama it is Adam Slater economist boss in the analysis signature Oxford Economics and for it is based it on the History. The thesis that Adam Slater, defends in its recent report that of those more than 70 countries that they have abandoned monetary, alone unions some few ones from 1945 have experienced significant losses in its production and growth. In fact, in some of these cases the economic setback is due to different causes, like it happened to the old Yugoslavia and the civil war. 

In a general way, the growth was positive in around two thirds of the countries that already adopted a new currency in the year in that happened, while for a third the consequences were negative. And alone for 8% of the countries the economies were seriously affected, being written down setbacks in the production of 20% or more. 

The most probable scenario if Greece abandons the euro it will be a significant fall of the GDP, but the historical evidences suggest that this would be followed by a quite strong turnaround, it indicates in the study, picked up by Bloomberg. And it gives examples: Czechoslovakia dissolved its monetary union in 1993 in one period of 'transition' of single five weeks and in the mark of the process of breakup of this country in two new nations, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The Slovak production fell later around 4% that year, but two years, in 1995, it was already 10 higher% that in 1992. 

It is necessary to keep in mind the circumstance that the report doesn't mention to the Czech Republic because it is in the same moment of the separation its economy to he expanded in that case the poor part or let us say that it braked the economies of both countries it was Slovakia. The two resulting nations mainly the first one was and they are very dependent of the German influence, this should consider because for my knowledge of the area, I know that Germany influences a lot in reactivating the old Czech's economy - so much Slovakia for its cultural vicinity as for its interest in separating them of the influence of Russia. Germany started immediately and with force "Skoda" through its purchase on the part of VW and use the industrial structures of both nations and its much cheaper manpower that the German paid in Eurus. 

Transferring the calculations to Greece, Slater doesn't discard that the Interior product (GDP) of Greece it can collapse until 10% after abandoning the euro, but he also adds that the fall would be limited by other "advantages" that would give cause to the recovery and that much depends of "how the transition" is negotiated. In this point, the economist recognizes that Greece would be beneficiary in the case of getting a weaker exchange rate that impels the exports and some more flexible monetary conditions. Also, through the default the Government from Athens could find space district attorney for recapitalize to the banks and any possible movement to the drop in the bags you grieve it would feel in the homes, since alone 2% of the money of the small savers is in the variable rent.  

In accordance with the report, the half growth that they reach the countries that change its foreign currency is located in 2,7% the year that makes the decision, and of 3,2% from the previous year until the later year to the same one. "The managerial sector of the country can be surprisingly resistant before the exits of a monetary union because he fears the serious financial crises that sometimes accompany" them, Slater it points.  

But what is clear is that the history says that at the end the country comes out strengthened because the subjection to a currency that doesn't reflect its reality as for the industrial economic potential and of consumption it prevents to adjust its economy what makes it inviable it is what is passing in Greece and what passed in Spain the foreign currencies of the countries is adjusted according to its economies and this makes that everything goes in agreement with the reality the state can condition wages and internal costs according to the levels that it can really sustain. 

The society is adjusted because the prices are located at its level it is very possible that the consumption falls or change but like they indicate the experiences these economies they resurge stronger that doesn't mean them to be stronger with regard to the economies of the abandoned currency, but yes they are more it in comparison to what they were in fact themselves with the abandoned currency. The important thing in these processes is that there is not a political break that is to say that the new country and their new currency are not rejected by the market in that it was unwrapped the monetary separation before that is to say it should be purely an act of state economy, not of rebelliousness or of enmity politics.  

In the current situation this it is the solution Greece he should abandon the economy euro and at the same time to receive economic help and of the UE for their readjustment to their new economy this would not cause the effect infection that so much the UE fears regarding other economies of the union with problems and, to the international markets, he would give a clear sign that the euro is a strong and sure currency and that the economies that use it, are also safe and chords with the strength of the own foreign currency, this now is breaking for blame of 320,000 million of Eurus of debt of a country that will be able to never to pay this debt, neither he will be able to lift the head above with this weight.