Last
month the western powers signed a historical agreement with Iran with the
objective of limiting their nuclear program. To change, they committed to lift
the economic sanctions and to connect Iran with the rest of the world when this
happened I wrote that it could be a great news although he didn't know when the
serious today everything indicates that I make a mistake and it will be a very
bad news for all.
And
partly it is logical that it is this way because two very disparate but
confluent circumstances converge to the same one, time they will do on one hand
the agreement with Iran it benefitted to the world with the idea that they
would not have but atomic bombs in hands of a country that the certain thing is
that this watched by numerous divergent religious and political forces and that
the in turn seeks to be head of a very dispersed Islamic movement for the time
being this gave like I say the tranquility that one day to somebody gave him
the idea of using the atomic energy to finish with their dissident enemies and
already in passing with the whole world.
But
there am here that if it won't happen an atomic hecatomb if an economic
hecatomb that is already unbalancing the world will happen and it can cause an
authentic geopolitical disaster with an Islamic war that will become like it
happened in the two last European wars in world, this now is more possible
because the reality is that if neither there has been for already 70 years
another war of world character has been thanks to the atomic bombs of the USA,
Russia, France, Great Britain, Israel, and some more camouflaged.
A
world war with these weapons is unthinkable because it would not serve since as
anything it would not be anything after her this that scares all is in fact the
most effective life insurance, so that to make a war for not taking out benefit
then some this it is the reality that he has brought us until the century 21 in
"peace". But the things are putting on to shot (never better used the
expression) a war to shots or conventional bombs if it can be made and it is
more, I believe that there are many political and military cabinets that they
should be studying it and advising that it is not expected more.
As
he told the ex-president of Israel, Shimon Pérez, in Davos the last year,
Israel is no longer a threat for the Arab countries in the Middle East. From
the invasion of Iraq the map of East Means has changed almost 12 years ago.
ISIS has become the enemy number one. The reports of their cruelties on behalf
of the Islam sunita are overwhelming. Their combatants don't distinguish among
military and civil objectives. It is not possible to negotiate with a group
whose objective is to kill or to expel to the yazidis, Christian and chiies,
and to revoke the governments Arab sunitas to establish its version of a
caliphate in the entire world Arabic.
The
Arab world and the western today they also wonder How to stop such a cruel
movement that he doesn't keep in mind the civil population's life? ISIS is
arming with heavy military team and it is developing tactical effective. It
proves of it is it that up to now, even with the wide air support of the
American forces, the Iraqi army has been unable to stop them, the objective
that ISIS pursues is a military victory and implacable social control and the
total governability of the Islamic world.
United
States and their allies don't have the necessary support to begin a lingering
invasion of Iraq and Syria. On the other hand, the Arab States doesn't seem
willing to commit its own forces to defeat ISIS. It is not strange: it would be
to the monarchies suníes difficult to convince to their own town that the
destruction of ISIS is worthwhile, because besides the human and economic cost,
ISIS is car-proclaimed as the true defender of the ideal purer sunitas. The
problem is very difficult of solving, it is as if to the capitalist Europeans
tells us that makes the war to the USA. No matter how much its economic
aggressiveness is collapsing to all, it would be we very difficult to understand
that he/she is our enemy.
For
everything it, I believe that the strategic objective that has allowed the
signature of the nuclear agreement with Iran is to facilitate a bigger
cooperation in the fight against the ISIS. But it can have an appreciation error
on the part of occident in this respect. I believe that the agreement with
Iran, also help to ISIS in an indirect way because it confirms to their
followers, the theses that the USA, and West is supporting the Shiite ones in
its millennial fight against the sunitas. The tension among Shiite and sunitas
is high not only in Iraq and Syria, but also in Yemen.
Maybe
it is a problem we call him local that it affects to the differences of
religion of some millennial civilizations if this was this way maybe the only
form possible to get an end of serious definitive peace to separate the two
blocks religious base of the problem, offering to the tribes sunitas an
autonomous region, maybe the moment has arrived of to face the facts and to
divide Iraq because I don't believe that the tribes sunitas take a risk their
lives for a Shiite one that the Government dominates in Baghdad.
The
problem also increases for the crisis of the petroleum that as much these
uncertainties as the treaty with Iran and the world economy is making that
countries whose dependence is bound exclusively to the price of the same one it
complicates possible agreements or coalitions able to appease the spirits.
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