During the whole first
semester of this year, since in January it arrived to the power Syriza - the
party political Greek anti-austerity and of extreme left - the Greek saga
practically monopolized the attention of the commentators and political
specialists from Europe. Even while the economy of Greece crumbled, the new
Greek Government stayed strong in his demand of obtaining relief for his debt
without undergoing plans of austerity.
In principle it was in all
their national so much right (they had won some elections for majority) as
international these elections had been fully democratic and Greece was a
sovereign country… at least this believed me. This happened until half-filled
of July, when suddenly the Government agreed with the conditions specified by
the creditors.
Indeed, starting from July 13
the Government Greek, staunch defender of the anti-austerity, it has been
forced to impose an even harder austerity and to carry out painful structural
reformations, under the narrow supervision of their creditors, with object of
activating the third rescue that it is already to the doors. He had stopped to
be sovereign, this doesn't mean that the taken posture has been mistaken or he
not simply means that today in Europe it can no longer leave freely for where
one wants but for where they take you.
Why the Greek Government
commits to complete the conditions that not alone they rebut his own promises,
but rather they also resemble a lot those that the voters rejected
overwhelmingly in a popular referendum. Many believe and I also count myself
among this opinion that Tsipras made a mistake or they deceived him concretely
Varoufakis and company the first Greek minister Alexis Tsipras I outline a
blackmail to the UE believing that Greece could put in danger the unit and the
value of the Euro group, they were mistaken as always I have maintained in my
comments in this respect.
The UE or the Euro group if
they prefer it, he responded to the intent of blackmail with an ultimatum with
the support of their partners: or it accepts our demands or they leave the
euro. The question is why the exit of Greece of the Eurozone (the call Grexit)
it would not be equal to such a potent threat as they believed the Greeks of
Syriza. In fact, from an economic perspective, the "Grexit" doesn't
represent any potential catastrophe against what some maintained that it would
happen.
Finally of bills the main
short term cost - a turbulence in the financial system - it was already
materialized in Greece: they closed the banks and the stock market, and
controls were imposed to the capital. Although this actions were necessary to
brake a flight of capitals to great scale and to avoid the collapse of the bank
system, they also caused that the Greek economy contracted strongly. This
demonstrated to the Greeks that were alone and that if what was happening was
being member of the Eurozone they could still imagine that it would happen if
was not it.
Inside this context, the Greek
negotiators could have considered another proposal that he made circulate in an
informal way the Ministry of Finances of Germany; in this proposal it was
recommended that Greece receives the pardon of its debt in an immediate way in
exchange for that he leaves the euro temporarily. But if Greece remained in the
system of the euro any relief it would not be granted.
You can only speculate about
which the motivation of Schäuble is to encourage a Grexit. It seems that he
believes that although a more integrated Eurozone is certainly something very
desirable, it is not feasible when one has as member to a country in which
cannot trust as for its execution with the terms agreed Independently of the
reasons that has Schäuble, its proposal it could have represented an exit for
Greece whose economy had been squeezed by the austerity until being dry, and
whose bank system was already closed.
The immediate reduction of the
debt and the recovery of the economic sovereignty although went to coast of
leaving the euro, at least temporarily - seemingly he would offer long term
important benefits. In certain sense, it is equal to an opportunity of gold,
since Germany offers to pay for something that many believe that anyway Greece
finished making. Nevertheless, the Greek Government rejected an exit, and instead
of it accepted it the difficult conditions outlined by the creditors.
The explanation of this drama
has given it Alexis Tsipras before the Greek congress - The election was to
face the crash of the economy of the country from the euro or from the drachma
- the sentence is devastating the situation today of Greece is the same one it
has not changed anything that that simply that the sacrifices that it should
suffer today will pass them accompanied and if has maintained its ultimatum
maybe he would have to pass them equally but alone and this today is very but
that very difficult with the economy of the country completely discards.
In the second trimester of
2013, the area euro left the longest recession that he has lived in the history
and that he was prolonged during seven trimesters. From that date, coinciding
with the end of the crisis of the sovereign debt, although threatened by other
factors like the crisis of Greece to that we have referred, it has followed a
hesitant path in which has not been able to grow more than 0,4% in rate inter
quarterly in none of the eight trimesters that they have lapsed.
Neither he has made it in the
second trimester of this year, in the one that the 19 countries of the area
euro a stocking of 0,3% and the 29 that compose the European Union grew they
made it 0,4%, sowing doubts about the strength of an economic recovery that
doesn't seem to settle. And the main ones responsible, according to the data
offered by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, they are
Germany, France and Italy, the three bigger economies of the area euro whose
economies add more than half of the GDP of the area euro.
This is together with the case
of Greece a warning that should not fall in broken sack because what we have
reviewed until here regarding the impossibility of Greece of leaving alone to
the economic world this condition doesn't have it neither France neither
Germany neither Italy if the European union and the Eurozone don't finish with
the restrictions and with the austerity that brakes the productivity, the
consumption, and with everything it the employment and the development of the
nations that we compose the UE, will end up rescuing our economic and political
sovereignties and we will stop to obey the power that he wants to impose the
Calvinist mentality of the Germany of Ángela Merkel. Germany owes to weigh up
its history another time more and to analyze that the extreme ideas of their
leaders were never in fact an example of freedom and democracy or it is
necessary to remember Hitler's nationalism.
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