SPAIN THEIR REALITY AND THEIR FUTURE ARE NOT VERY CLEAR

After seven years of crisis, until the one insulted business of the construction it has been added to the small party that seems to live the gross interior product (GDP) in Spain. The economy is growing above the European stocking in good part thanks to some monetary stimuli without precedents and a first floor price of the petroleum. But the IMF as me and many Spaniards, we don't have it so clear, because the structural problems of the Spanish economy question that without these stimuli it can be refloated for if same die their potential first floor of growth to short and half term. 

The report elaborated in the mark of the call Article IV, for which the organism of Washington makes a global evaluation of the economies and it outlines a series of recommendations, he lights a red light about the vigor of Spain in the means term. According to the document, every year will be slower than the previous one: the growth foreseen for this year and the next one, of 3,1% and of 2,5%, respectively and he doesn't stop to decrease in the following exercises, until 1,8% in 2020, said the future otherwise it is black there is not exit of the tunnel. 

I believe that I have referred in numerous articles to what is Spain, our nation it is a country come to less for centuries. He discovered the new world by chance, I believe an empire thanks to wearing out it all the wealth and glory that this provides him, it was put in a corner by the European towns that I dominate and her alone he closed up after the religion and their not well understood national pride. 

Spain if today is an economy pushed up, it is it because the UE needs more disasters like the Greek not to reproduce, but not because Spain has changed at all, Spain should have advancing in the fiscal, reduced consolidation its indebtedness and improved the labor market, taking advantage for it the push given by the UE to solve the structural problems that it continues suffering and to maintain a solid rhythm of growth, but he has not made it, it has been limited to save its ego another time, he didn't want to be rescued as country to avoid that you intervenes and is discovered the politics’, almost medieval, rough roads in that it continues moving from Madrid.  

He commented the difference few days ago among the results of the economy of Portugal it is much clearer than that of Spain, it is that Portugal is richer than Spain, it is not it, but there it was rescued to its economy, to the country in a word, here in alone Spain it was allowed to rescue the banking, today Portugal is stabilized with growths of the GDP of 0,4% (they already take this way two followed months) and in alone Spain they are he the big banks, but the remaining economy is same or worse than seven years ago. 

The International Monetary Fund said that the recovery had accelerated in Spain thanks to an improvement of the trust, of the consumption and of the investment and to "significant external" line winds, but he noticed of the risk of giving it goes behind in the applied politicians, indispensable to generate trust. "A reversion of the applied reformations would generate uncertainty and it would damage the recovery, mainly if the external conditions worsen considerably", the boss of the mission of the IMF, Helge Berger said.  

The Government Rajoy, notice that never mentions to Portugal, we should wonder because Rajoy and the PP, alone they use the example of Greece to alert that the country is played to return to the crisis, after the general elections of final of year if the Popular Party doesn't achieve an enough majority to overcome the foregone union of the left, with all the polls also omening a great parliamentary fragmentation.  

Certainly the main domestic risk is the doubts on what it will pass if the PP loses most of the government and the possibility of forming another government in minority. The government that happens him to see that the reformations that helping to the recovery in the country are at the moment, don't exist, but rather what is helping to the country is the general circumstances and the sacrifice of the middle class and worker from Spain that surprisingly as the government goes giving good numbers to their creditors, these middle classes and workers go lagging behind in their revenues, his security and in his trust. 

The IMF foresee that Spain unfulfilled their deficit objective for tenth two in 2015 and 2016 (-4,4% and -3%, respectively), and he hopes the growth of the GDP reaches its pick this year with an expansion of 3,1 percent that he will go decreasing later on of the 2,5 in 2016 at the 1,8 in 2020. With these numbers it is clear that there is not reactivation but simply stagnation or if they want neutralization of economic recession. 

To avoid this control to the growth that is imperative if Spain wants to survive the social disaster of the unemployment, think that returning to the example of Portugal this small country has an unemployment of 11% the half that Spain today, the international organism proposes recipes centered in solving the duality of the labor market, to impel the development of the small companies, to reduce the public and private indebtedness and to undertake a gradual fiscal consolidation. 

In spite of the fact that it verified a turnaround in the employment creation, the IMF highlighted that more than 5 million people they continue in unemployment, (they have not strained the statistical traps made by the government) and that the new labor contracts are in great measure of temporary and on time partial character, with an unemployment rate that could stay as structural and that he would come closer to 16,5 percent. Their recommendations in this chapter, are to introduce a unique contract with growing cost of discharges, to align wages with the productivity and the economic conditions of the companies and to improve the formation of the stopped ones of long duration. 

The Spanish companies spread to be more small, less productive and fewer guided to the export that those of their European competitors, well it is certain that this bad them in spite of many, it is more accused outside of the territory of Catalonia since in this region they concentrate the companies more exporters and more innovative of Spain, but this partly has been always this way, today the problem of this situation is that the government doesn't want to take example neither to help Catalonia and the big companies will have worked outside of Spain because here the development ministry doesn't have resources to spend in them 

Surprisingly like positive feature, the mission of the IMF (that Madrid visited from May 26 to June 8) it highlighted that the Spanish financial sector continues strengthening, and it supported the efforts to encourage to the banks to increase its capital of high quality and to reduce the bankrupt loans, sew that the banks take advantage to reduce the we lend bankrupt and the other ones in general, forcing to many companies to reduce activity instead of increasing products and investments. 

A good portrait of the reality, this is what there is, the question it is on one hand, the Catalan that we will try to escape from this Spain unable to see beyond their navel that he doesn't want to see are that this unbalanced one completely and that he believes that the solution is to continue he being, because for what seems the political ideas of the Spanish centralism, they are not inoculated alone in the PP but in all the political formations that they try to be made with the government of the nation. They are ways to see the things.