CATALONIA WAITS AND IT DESPAIRS

As he said yesterday the enormous tangle that has been created between the parties and organizations civil pro-independence, it could conclude with the non-celebration of the autonomous elections that Artur Mas he announced for the next one September 27. The president, in the center of the whole vortex, he is thinking about the possibility to suspend the convocation of the elections (an exclusive competition of the president of the Generalitat). “I won't summon them for anything", he insists Mas every time that they ask him and as you they know, yesterday I advised this same in one of my daily articles. 

But meanwhile, the bewilderment continues. Artur Mas it proposed a summit of parties and civil organizations for yesterday it takes that finally was postponed for next week. The leader of the CUP, David Fernández, disabled it on Thursday at night when assuring that his formation would not go to advertising" "summits (it sounds to movie title), at the same time that he requested to Artur Mas and to its party Convergència "that the interested" filtrations are avoided that if they don't explain that filtrations filter. 

In fact, the reality is that to the leaders of the parties sovereignty’s Arthur hinders them But, frankly I find absurd, because the question of the independence of Catalonia should go for before the fights to be positioned from face to a future that the most possible thing is that you doesn't end up getting, it is evident in my opinion that characters of the little experience and personal quality as they are Oriol Junqueras and David Fernández, they are unable to take to the Independence to the Catalan sovereignty, in the supposition that ends up being able to arrive to the presidency of the Govern of the Generalitad, they don't have both two the enough political capacity to govern a transition stage that requires besides stability, gifts of political negotiation it sews that this outside of the tasting of the two mentioned leaders. 

Another thing is that both leaders are necessary to push a part of the Catalan society that has never supported to Convergence and Arthur Mas, but of this to lead a brutal negotiation with Spain and with the UE if the case arrives, it is as much as requesting pears to the elm tree. And it is a pain because Catalonia would be very but that very enough to be able to be constituted in state inside the UE. The economy today with the whole mess that we take ourselves of clever, of changes, of threats and all that you want, it is going to an admirable rhythm.  

The Generalitat foresee that the Catalan economy grows 3,2% at least this year and that it generates about 92.200 employments thanks to the push of the economic dynamics. The convergence government makes this estimate in a report about the macroeconomic forecasts of Catalonia for the years 2015 and 2016, in which omens that that second year the economy Catalan to turn ap 2,8%, that will make that he believes 82.300 work positions, calculated on time in equivalent terms complete.  

This way, according to the estimates of the Govern, the estimated unemployment rate of Catalonia that at the end of the last year was of 20,3%, (very below the Spanish stocking) it will be clipped in 2015 until 18,3% and he will fall again in 2016 until 16,4%. The economic recovery that Catalonia began during the second half of 2013 had continuity during 2014 and he has taken force during 2015. The economic dynamics goes beyond what you/they foresaw the last forecasts, of final of 2014 that have been overcome by the push of the productivity, it considers the department of Economy in this report.  

It is certain that like it happens with Spain the financial stability, the expansible politicians of the European Central Bank, the flow of the credit, the minimum prices of the petroleum and the depreciation of the euro in front of the dollar are helping to the Catalan economy that one expects that it grows this year 3,2% and it is not discarded that this growth can even finish overcoming this rate", the Govern points. The keys of the growth of the Catalan economy are explained by the "new acceleration of the internal" demand that the Govern is considered it will increase 3,4% in 2015 and something less in 2016, 2,5%.  

As for the external balance, he will have a null contribution in 2015 (-0,1%) and discreet in 2016 (+0,3%), since the exports will continue their good march, but the imports will be bigger than these, in spite of it the GDP per Catalan layer is of 26,900 what locates him above Italy and Spain and immediately behind France. The consumption of the homes will grow 3,4% in 2015 and 2,7% in 2016, a more modest figure as consequence of the normalization of the consumption level and of a recovery of the positive values in the inflation. The gross formation of capital, indicator related with the investments, will reach an increment of 6,8% in 2015 and 5,4% in 2016. 

The Catalan government's forecasts for the Catalan economy coincide in good measure with the estimates of the BBVA for Catalonia disclosed at the end of June. This bank also estimated the forecast for 2015 in 3,2% and that of 2016 in 2,5%, although this bank is more optimistic as regards employment, since it calculated that this economic peacefulness would give place to 200.000 work positions in these two years. On the other hand, the Chamber of Commerce of Barcelona made public at the end of April its last estimate for the Catalan economy: an increment of 2,7% for this year and 3% in 2016. 

Frankly I don't see the necessity that besides the bloody fight against the pressures and the Spanish government's economic breathlessness are had to add the parties and political leaders that sovereignty is declared what these leaders should be making now it is putting peace serenity and spirits to those that we think that it is still worthwhile to attempt it if they are located in this position of normality but if they maintain their personal fights against the current government and against Artur Mas in particular I assure them that everything will get lost because besides giving ammunition to the unionists with the inventions of clever without political and extremist positions assure them that the first Catalan soberanismo breaks and second with the idea of the accomplished facts and the gross force is not possible to win the independence it is necessary much more political than reason.