RUSSIA NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND EACH OTHER WITH OCCIDENT TO PUT PEACE IN NEXT EAST

The economic difficulties of Russia more than to the occident sanctions, they can be attributed mainly to the descent of the prices of the petroleum whose abrupt fall in the summer of 2014 caused a drastic slope of the ruble. He threw to the Russian economy in the harmful vicious circle of increase of the inflation, ascent of the types of interest, contraction of the growth and an enfeeblement still bigger than the currency. In the future we foresee a slight turnaround and the stabilization of the prices in a range of 50-70 dollars for barrel. If this happened, he could offer a respiration. To know if the Russian economy goes to upturn and to stabilize is necessary to analyze four elements key. 

But every day there are more expenses in the Russian economy and this is a danger that didn't cease just like that, I refer to the warlike intervention in next east that causes an enormous expense under the current conditions that you/they force Russia to control their monetary politics a lot because the expense and the slope of revenues is a fact that cannot be calculated when it finished. The positive thing is that the ruble has probably played bottom, "unless the prices of the petroleum afford surprises". The inflation should diminish, what would allow to the central bank to adopt an expansible posture, inside some limits. 

In fact, the Russian central bank (BCR) he faces capital exits that can be counteracted in two ways at the moment. The first one is to sell part of the great bottom of accumulated international reservations and to use the result of the sale to buy active national. Nevertheless, the rhythm of sales is not sustainable indefinitely. Therefore, the BCR also has to appeal to maintain the sufficiently high types of interest to attract capital, fact that undoubtedly harms the interior development.  

It is not surprising, therefore that at the end of 2014 the type of main interest of the central bank ascended from a simultaneous way to the exit of flows of investment direct foreigner. Fiscal politics. The Russian economy has avoided the worst thing. In fact, since almost half of the government's revenues they come from the petroleum and of the gas, the budgetary deficit of the country had been able to shoot. 

The strong depreciation of the currency counteracted the impact of the fall of the prices of the petroleum, like it demonstrates the fact that the price of the raw one in rubles has stayed. In consequence, the alone budgetary deficit deteriorated until 2.9% in June of 2015. With everything, the objective of the Government of 3% for the budgetary deficit is sighted in the horizon, for what the fiscal politics should not offer a strong support in the successive thing. This is lamentable in a context in the one that as much the consumption as the investment already begin to weaken. 

The weight of the foreign debt of Russia has suffered a considerable setback with the enfeeblement of the ruble and the rising fall of a third of the value in dollars of the GDP of the country. Although the absolute level of the debt external Russian denominated in foreign currencies has decreased in more than 100,000 million from principles of 2014, its quota in the GDP has increased above 30%. But this is not a problem, since the international reservations of Russia continue covering around 80% of its foreign debt in foreign currencies. 

But the perspectives of the investment and the productivity continue being somber. They already take going back five years and the current environment is not favorable for an investment of the tendency. It owes you, among other things, to the international sanctions for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the lack of trust of the Russian companies’ in the future economic perspectives and the numerous geopolitical uncertainties. 

On the whole, the panorama of the Russian economy is complicated. The positive part understands some very low levels of public debt, some big reservations and a balance for positive bill current. As negative aspects it is necessary to point out a growing foreign debt in foreign currencies as percentage of the GDP (although the unpaid one is very unlikely), a budgetary deficit that worsens and some very depressed levels of growth.  

It is always the possibility that the intervention of Russia in the conflicts of next east if it is able to put peace and order in the area with the help of all the western countries that they are intervening it can drive to a revaluation of the price of the raw one that now is more than evident it continues playing like strategic weapon on the part of Saudi Arabia to ruin all its competitors that relapses of the prices of the petroleum don't take place is vital for the Russian economy. 

Nevertheless, the recovery will be moderate. The monetary politics should relax herself lightly, while it is unlikely that the fiscal politics offers a lot of back, and the possibility of a revitalizations of the investment continues being remote. If like he said before it is possible to put peace and order in the conflicts of half east the future for Russia in 2016 it is of a moderate turnaround of a volatile ruble from the situation of weakness in that he is. The end of the sanctions for the intervention of Crimea and Ukraine would provide a relaxation of the inflation from current high levels and the return (very fair) of the growth to positive land from a state of deep recession, having present that the politics and the geopolitics continue being the biggest risk.