It seems that after the lifting of the European sovereign debt, all the analysts pass page to the problem giving it for well guided, and they notice the collateral ones that can end up being certainly more problematic and to cause second and third crisis in the European economy now.
They will do at the moment with the solution of the debt, he is clarified the future mainly to the German and French banks that it is already well, for something you begins, but the undertaken economic resolutions don't solve that the PIGSI (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain and Italy.) they can balance their budgets, and recover their PIB, to obtain the appropriate differential that allows them to sustain and to reduce their debts.
For that reason now I say that he will be necessary to think like it is reactivated the production and the revenues of these battered countries. I have written several times that a serious form creating a double euro that makes comparable among if the countries in question, this says it because the problem resides basically that it is sought to compare the PIGSI with the rest of the rich and potent Europe, and this doesn't square, no matter how much the Greek debt is softened, the markets didn't reduce the costs of the debts of the PIGSI, because they come that the capacity to pay for themselves will be more and more difficult.
It cannot stay bad him in spite of the BCE, a cost rhythm of the money at the same level for a rich one that for a poor person, unless the rich one runs with the difference that the poor person won't be able to pay, and I eat this he won't be this way (truth Mrs. Merkel), he is a constant and endemic crisis the one that we have installed in the European Union, because this doesn't get ready in another way that with the contribution of grants to the PIGSI on the part of the union, the same as one has to make with the new annexed countries (Poland, Rumania, etc.), or restructuring the industrial, agricultural and economic productive capacity, in the area euro so that the productivity of the PIGSI is supplemented with the purpose of increasing her PIB.
Alone it is necessary to see the parameters macroeconomic Europeans to see what I am denouncing clearly
Conce/pais | Portugal | Irlanda | Grecia | España | Italia |
Déficit | -9,1 | -32,4 | -10,5 | -9,2 | -4,6 |
Debt pub. | 93,0 | 96,2 | 142,8 | 60,1 | 119,0 |
Growth | 1,4 | -1,0 | -4,5 | -0,1 | 1,3 |
Unemployment | 11,0 | 13,6 | 12,5 | 20,1 | 8,5 |
Comerc ext. | -9,9 | -0,7 | -10,4 | -4,5 | -3,5 |
The problematic countries are it for reasons mathematics, independently of their best or worse government administration, one can see that Italy is the best in the bad because he has two parameters in positive in front of the other trip partners and on the contrary Greece is the worst and he has three parameters in which is the worst, it is curious to see that Portugal this better one on the whole that Spain, and that this he has one better than the other countries and the worst of all them in the unemployment.
It is easy in view of this graph, to see for where it is necessary to attack, at the moment the European union has acted on one of the parameters the debt, and he has made it clearly where more lack toward, but it is clear that if not continuous solving the deficits, the PIB, the unemployment, and the scales of commercial, they will go falling one to one the other countries, because they already took charge the international markets of taking advantage of them, loading them of interests its capital demands that they don't take place internally.
The most palpable example of what I mean is our Spain, because Spain has the cost of its debt so high if he has the lowest debt (25 points below the European stocking), because it is clear because the market guesses that it cannot produce capital to return it with the shot unemployment, the scale commercial negative, the high deficit, and he doesn't have growth that foresees solution some, these they are the problems of our country, and for that reason days ago claim elections, because these problems need time to be solved and as soon as possible begin better, and today's political situation doesn't help for anything.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario