Beginning the war to the terrorism are now and I
denominate this way it because it is already very difficult to know against the
one who and who are making the war the question it is that there is a war of
uncertain environment but that we can already name world because it is developed
in any part of the world and they almost already fight almost therefore all the
armies of the world the qualification of 3ª world war I don't find any
foolishness.
That that neither I find a foolishness it is that at
the moment the war is developing officially against the terrorism Yihadista but
that it involves everybody terrorist Muslim or not civil war in Syria, half
hidden war in Turkey against the Kurd, these against the ISIS, war in Mali, in
Yemen, and the terrorism (small wars) in Europe in Africa in Iraq you has
already begun to move the revolts in Biafra (Nigeria) in short it is a not to
stop.
The curious of the case is that analyzing all these
warlike movements behind them is a common element THE PETROLEUM and it is
curious because all the litigants have special interest in not declaring it the
wars the conflicts it seems or they have an image more than type ethnic
religious that non material as it is the war for the quotas of the petroleum,
but I fear myself that it won't take a lot in leaving to the light the black
gold that is no longer gold but if it continues being black.
And he doesn't go to take in exploding because you is
fighting speculating with the extraction costs and their sale at the moment but
that I don't see much more journey to this camouflage because the cost of eta
strategy is enormous and soon Iran will put since in the market millions of
barrels of petroleum to unlikely prices part of practically of some null
revenues for this concept any price will make then go up its GDP.
The price of the petroleum West Texas (of reference in
USA) he has collapsed 10,6% in November. This descent has taken to the barrel
until the 41,65 dollars, very near the minima of the last six years. The offer
of raw continues being superior to the demand, a situation to which are
contributing the OPEC, USA and although it seems a suicide Russia that also
wants to put its grain of sand to maintain its market quota in this war of
prices of their another reason of its interest with Syria and Bashar the
Assad.
Such and as public the agency Reuters, the oil
companies of Russia are producing all that they can. As they point out sources
of the industry, the Russian companies are clever to fight for the market quota
with the OPEC. Even if the barrel of raw falls until the 35 dollars, the
pumping of raw will continue working to all machine in the biggest country in
the world.
And it is that the (OPEC) it is resolved to maintain a
vigorous pumping of raw to maintain their market quota and in passing to try to
expel the less efficient competitors. Any change in the production politics
would be only possible if the big producers unaware to the cartel, mainly
Russia, sink to some coordinated cuttings of the production. Sew that
apparently neither Russia wants to make it neither of course he will make it
Iran. Each country is looking for its interest that is to maintain its market
quota and to its clients.
The entrance with force in the market of countries
like USA or Canada with the technique of extraction denominated fracking has
destabilized the market, the oligopoly has broken and now the competition
exists in a market that has been historically directed by the adults producing
with the objective of achieving some juicy margins. According to the Eurasia
Drilling Company, the Russian companies have increased 10% the perforation
activity in the first six months of the year if the six are compared first of
2014, in spite of the collapse of the prices of the raw one.
In a recent report of Bank of America and picked up by
Reuters, it is pointed out that "in spite of the recent fall of the prices
of the petroleum, the Russian production has continued accelerating. The
production of raw in Russia continues being profitable thanks to the fall of
the ruble (the petroleum is denominated in dollars) and a reduction of the
taxes". That same report analyzes they can tolerate the Russian companies
the fall of the prices of the petroleum until where. To day of today, the
companies continue obtaining benefits for each sold barrel and if the raw one
doesn't fall below the 35 dollars the Russian it can continue increasing their
production.
The main objective of this strategy begun by the OPEC
was to expel to the companies of fracking of the market. These companies that
are established for the most part in USA and Canada have some superior costs of
exploitation to other producers as Saudi Arabia. However, the unstoppable
advance of the technology and the great development of the financial markets of
USA is allowing to these companies to carry out adjustments without erosion in
a sharp way its production of petroleum.
With all this about to be exploited understands better
the taking of occident positions and of Russia in the Arab scenario that is the
source today of the two problems of the world the terrorism Yihadista and the
cheap petroleum who he will say it when the petroleum strangled the world
economies with its value in 140 dollars barrel that today would strangle them
in a same way with the price three and a half times but I lower. Incredible but
I find the key of all that is happening.
Russia, the OPEC, USA, Norway... All the producing
countries want to maintain their market quota and for they have to sell it the
petroleum to a cheaper price that their competitors. The offer of raw already
bill with a lot of force, will have to see like he said before what it happens
when Iran has its wells working to 100% and begin to export petroleum. A new
player in a market that has passed overnight of being low control to be
governed by the rules of the market.
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